Adam Strangis 
NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26
We’re back in action tonight with a seven-game slate and there are already two games that stand far above the pack that the field will focus on that we should as well. Let’s talk about those two games and shine a light on teams we need news from in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Bucks at Grizzlies
Bucks – The status of Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most important pieces of news on the entire slate. Jrue Holiday has already been ruled out and if Giannis (who has missed two of the past three games) sits again, Khris Middleton will be the only one of the big three that is active. I won’t say Middleton is an absolute must at $8,700 but he can’t be dismissed either. In 349 minutes this year without Giannis and Holiday, Middleton has 1.46 FPPM and a massive 39.8% usage rate. These players are typically over $9,000 so there is a slight discount even though perception might be he’s expensive. I have the same line of thought for Bobby Portis, who is now up to $7,400 but he has a 25.1% usage rate and 1.19 FPPM. They are totally depending on Giannis but the duo of Pat Connaughton and Brook Lopez are solid secondary targets regardless. Lopez is flirting with 30 minutes although he’s in a tough matchup as far as rebounding. Memphis remains in the top five in the league in that category even though that’s typically not where Lopez scores a ton of points.
Grizzlies – With the news that Ja Morant is out of action for a couple of weeks, the two targets that jump to mind are Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. For one thing, Jones is still underpriced for averaging close to one fantasy point per minute with a 29.7% assist rate. I’ll be interested in looking to his assist prop again even though it missed the last game due to a blowout. You can play both Jones and Brooks together if you wish because I’m much happier to play Brooks now that he’s hit 34 minutes. The gloves are off and in his last game, he took 21 shots. You’re not getting that level of opportunity from a player under $6,000. Brooks is going to chuck in a game that features two teams in the top seven in pace. Of course, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. are on the table. JJJ wouldn’t be on my radar if Giannis plays and Bane has 1.16 FPPM without Morant. However, just remember when looking at his game log from last game that Brooks was not on the floor with him. That’s a late shift for the ceiling for Bane.
Kings at Magic
Kings – We can probably expect Davion Mitchell to continue to be a popular target on the slate because Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox remain out and Mitchell has scored 46 and 38 DK points in the past two games. He’s sporting a 23.8% sage rate and 0.86 FPPM but he also doesn’t leave the court so some inefficiency is still worth chasing. Chimezie Metu popped off last game for 33 DK points but he also shot 8-11 in his 26 minutes, so I’ll wait to see what the model says for him. The secondary targets are leaning more toward Donte DiVincenzo and Harrison Barnes because Sacramento needs bodies. These guys are going to see the floor for 32+ minutes and the Magic are 19th in defensive rating this season. The stealthy part of the environment is Orlando plays at the 10th fastest pace so this game could run-and-gun pretty easily.
Magic – The only small issue with the Magic team is the players you’d most want to play are a little too expensive. Both Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr. have a tough road to hit 6x at their current salaries and WCJ especially is flirting with almost $9,000. I would much prefer to play Middleton if he’s solo than WCJ but there is one cheap player that fits nicely in R.J. Hampton. With Jalen Suggs already being ruled out, Hampton should be in line for the 28-30 minutes he’s been getting and he only costs $4,200. His 0.78 FPPM is acceptable and looking at Anthony at 1.11 and WCJ at 1.17 doesn’t inspire much confidence that they can hit 6x. You could also look at Moe Wagner who has been playing backup minutes but he would be another model-style play tonight. One player from each side could make sense here and then utilizing 2-3 from the first game builds the majority of lineups.
Honorable Mention
Rockets/Trail Blazers – This is a repeat and I think we’ll get the majority of the same players, so I’m not going to repeat what Ghost said in yesterday’s article. We could see plenty of popularity coming from the late-night hammer once again.
Teams To Monitor
Pacers – They are just a disaster right now so who knows who will actually be active for them. In the last game, it was just nine guys so stay tuned to Discord through the day to see who and how many they have.
Nets – It appears that Seth Curry and Goran Dragic are back for this one so picking one of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is likely the play instead of potentially both. I want to see the Miami lineup on the second leg of a back-to-back spot before deciding.
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