Adam Strangis 
NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16
We’ve got a giant slate ahead of us tonight with 24 teams in action and there is one game with serious playoff implications that could be the best spot of the night. I know one of my primary targets at the top of the grid will come from that, but we have studs all over in dynamite spots. Let’s talk about all of it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/16 to see what we love tonight to find green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Hawks at Hornets
Hawks – There are two things that stick out like a sore thumb for this game. The first is these teams are the ninth and 10th seed in the East right now, separated by a half-game in the standings. The second is Trae Young dropped 76 DK in the last game and somehow his salary didn’t move a single dollar on DK. Young has turned it on with 93 raw points in his past two games and John Collins has already been ruled out for this game. Young sits at 1.48 FPPM without him this season and has a 36.5% usage rate against the team that ranks third in pace and 23rd in defensive rating. Atlanta is 27th themselves and this game will surely check in with a massive total. While Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela will draw some attention, I’ll once again turn to Onyeka Okongwu. We have a talented, if inexperienced, big man who has been logging 18-22 minutes lately. Capela’s minutes have been down and it’s a little harder to justify his expense. It’s not out of the realm (and is somewhat likely) to see Capela get run off the floor in this spot. If Danilo Gallinari is out once again, that frontcourt is thin and Okongwu has yet to break the $4,000 barrier while possessing 1.01 FPPM across 547 minutes without Collins. He’s averaging seven paint touches per game and Charlotte is bottom three in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. That also helps Young, who sits sixth in drives to the hoop per game.
Hornets – Typically, we’d be starting with LaMelo Ball and I won’t say he’s an awful play, but I’m not sure how many more games I want to play Ball and watch him play 30 minutes while Terry Rozier flirts with 40. Now that they are the same salary and have similar upside/downside risks, perhaps it’s better to just take the shot at Rozier. The FPPM is a distinct advantage for Ball at 1.33 to 1.06 but an extra 7-8 minutes for Rozier closes that gap. The Hawks are also 0.3% away from leading the league in 3-point field goal percentage allowed so Rozier could have a bombs away game where he hits five or more triples in addition to everything else. You can also feel comfortable acting the wings of Atlanta here with Miles Bridges, and it’s a tough call between him and Rozier. I do feel like I’ll want two studs tonight so the mid-range may go a little by the wayside, but I’m interested in a run-back from the Hornets. Bridges is going to draw some soft defensive opposition of Gallo or worse and has 1.05 FPPM. The spread opened at three points and dropped to two quickly so this game should be a run-and-gun style game.
Mavericks at Nets
Mavericks – The battle between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant is going to be a lot of fun and both superstars are a little lower in salary than they have been lately. Doncic avoided an injury scare last game so that partially explains the mediocre results and he’s not going to take just 16 shots very often. I’d want to be 100% sure he’s good to go but he did play 39 minutes and the injury happened in the first quarter so the concern is not overwhelming. He’s not going against a scary defense either with the Nets 22nd in defensive rating. In the past month, Doncic has been playing better than at any point of the year with 1.56 FPPM and a 39.1% usage rate. Past Doncic, it gets a little harder to love anyone. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are not cheap and Dorian Finney-Smith has too much downside for this slate in my eyes. As it stands, I’d be very interested in Luka but the health of him and the Mavericks could change this slate immensely.
Nets – The more interesting side of this game is the Nets side. Kyrie Irving was a real-life version of the last solo Godzilla movie when Godzilla turns nuclear and levels parts of Boston. Since this game is in Brooklyn, he won’t be active tonight and the Nets had the luxury of limiting Durant to 30 minutes last night. He will be the main focus of the Nets and has massive upside, but Brooklyn could carry immense value plays. If Seth Curry and Cam Thomas remain out, Brooklyn is down to a seven-man rotation that includes KD, Andre Drummond, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Patty Mills, and Nic Claxton. Dragic will certainly draw another start and even though he was quiet last night, it’s hard to shine when a teammate is scoring 60 points. He only played 20 minutes last night so I’m happy going right back to the well and the center combo of Drummond and Speedy Claxton are very appealing. Dallas is just 17th in rebounding in the paint and there is lob potential with Claxton while for Drummond, the only defensive bodies are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. I expect the game to turn a little smaller so Claxton may be my choice, but we need to see who’s all active for Brooklyn. They will be of strong interest and Durant’s assist prop will be one I have my eyes on as well.
Nuggets at Wizards
Nuggets – Nikola Jokic is under $12,000 on a full slate and I’m not totally sure why. I grant you, the last three games have been average for him for fantasy but the Nuggets played six games in eight days and he finished off in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He will see no such matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are 26th in points allowed in the paint. Jokic is second in the league in points scored in the post-up game and the Wizards are dead last in points allowed, on top of ranking 24th in defensive rating this season. The likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis aren’t going to stop him and the Young/Joker duo is a target of mine if we get the proper value players. This is a little bit of a chase but Bones Hyland is starting to see things click for him. He’s producing 1.19 FPPM over the past month and he’s no different than a lot of rookies where we see a bump in performance after the break. Denver needs every once of scoring from the bench and he may not see 31 minutes a night, but he could creep into 25 at this point and against Washington, that’s interesting. The 23.1% usage rate in that time frame says this may not be just hot shooting either with him and DeMarcus Cousins being vital bench players.
Wizards – This is extremely scary to say but I don’t mind Porzingis. Now, do I play him on this crowded of a slate, probably not in SE formats. He’s more of an MME guy but paring him and Jokic could wind up paying off. Scoring 120 DK points isn’t out of the realm (it would be close to the ceiling, hence MME only for me) but since arriving in Washington, KP has commanded a 31.2% usage rate and 1.44 FPPM across 101 minutes. If he gets to 30-32 minutes for the first time, he could rack up a double-double and approach 50 DK but things have to break right for him. I can’t pay the salary for Kyle Kuzma at this juncture because when they have shared the court, Kuzma has gone down to 1.03 FPPM. This is mostly a spot where you play Jokic/KP or Jokic solo, pending any news during the day.
Honorable Mention
Lakers at Wolves – I don’t trust the Lakers on the road whatsoever and the -8 spread seems a tad generous. I’ll be toying with betting Wolves to cover (not an official wager) but who on that Lakers squad is stopping Karl-Anthony Towns? Really, the only player would be Anthony Edwards since he can play a bit of hero ball. To his credit, he got out of the way last game when KAT went berserk so we may not want to chase this game. It is a very interesting spot though and I could see them going under the radar. D’Angelo Russell should be able to abuse Westbrook on the perimeter as well.
Bucks at Kings – The main matchup I’d be interested in would be Giannis Antetokounmpo against De’Aaron Fox. We just saw the Bucks get carved up on the perimeter by Donovan Mitchell and *checks notes*…Mike Conley, so Fox has a pretty good spot. Jrue Holiday has not been quite the defender we’ve seen and they also aren’t running him into the ground on the ball every minute, either. Giannis getting that vulnerable interior is super enticing, but I do prefer Jokic in that range. It needs to be pointed out that this game sports a 240.5 total at open, and both teams are in the top 10 in pace.
Teams To Monitor
Suns – They played last night and while the starters had the minutes trimmed at the end, we could see someone sit. They have zero incentive to push anyone with a 7.5 game lead for the one seed in the West. I’d be more surprised if they roll into this one with a full roster. JaVale McGee could be the chalk du jour if someone like Deandre Ayton sat but this is speculation.
Thunder – If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits (currently questionable and OKC wants to tank), I’m out on the Spurs starters because this game should be a cakewalk. OKC would offer some value like Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, and others if SGA sits.
Raptors – It’s the last game on the slate which complicates matters but if Fred VanVleet sat and Scottie Barnes ran point again, count me among the interested. The same could be said for Gary Trent and Pascal Siakam, but Barnes would be my priority.
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