DFSGhost 
With four teams either tied for first in the Eastern Conference or a mere 0.5 games behind, things will get interesting down the stretch of the NBA season. Preseason favorites like the Nets and Lakers are now projecting to be on the road in a potential must-win Play-In game, while others continue to make impressive runs since the All-Star break. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
The Studs
Tonight, Nikola Jokic will be a lock for me in every NBA lineup. As you will see in the second section of the article, there will be ample room to get two of the studs on this slate, and The Joker needs to be one of them. Every game is crucial to the Nuggets at this stage of the season, as they look to fend off the Timberwolves to avoid the Play-In tournament, who are a mere 1.5 games back of them for the 6 seed. Jokic has sported a 33.2% usage rate in March, posting a 29.7/12.2/7.6 scoring line on 61.9% shooting. With a matchup versus a Hornets team that ranks 28th in the league to skilled centers, allowing some of the worst scoring and rebounding rates in the league, Jokic is in for a big day.
Simply put, the Spurs are in a must-win spot against one of the worst teams in the NBA. Murray, who leads the league in steals, will thrive in transition versus a Rockets perimeter offense that leads the league in turnover rate. Other than sitting last in the NBA in defensive rating, Houston also bleeds fantasy points against primary ball handlers, most notably allowing one of the highest assist rates to primary ball handlers, where Murray has averaged 9.3/game on the year.
The Value
Indiana Pacers (+7.5)
Malcolm Brogdon and Isaiah Jackson will be out for tonight’s game against the Hawks, and while options such as Justin Anderson and Terry Taylor have been useful in the last week, I’m not forcing any Pacers into my NBA lineups. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield remain active, and Goga Bitadze is still questionable, leaving many questions surrounding this offense at the time of writing.
Boston Celtics (+4)
Al Horford and Robert Williams have already been ruled out, opening up a ton of minutes in the Celtics frontcourt. Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum is a prime candidate to be rested with knee soreness tonight, paving the way for Jaylen Brown to lead the charge on offense, next to Marcus Smart, Grant Williams, Derrick White, and Payton Pritchard. With Toronto having a small lineup that plays position-less basketball, the Celtics can utilize a combination of their offensive players with Grant Williams at the ‘5’, should Daniel Theis not be able to keep pace.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies (-10.5)
Steph Curry remains out for the Warriors, while Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Otto Porter Jr. are likely going to rest for tonight’s game against the Grizzlies, who will be without Ja Morant. Rather than looking to the combination of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, the Warriors offer a ton of value with Jonathan Kuminga, Nemanja Bjelica, and Gary Payton II.
OKC Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)
It will be imperative to get this game right on tonight’s NBA slate, as it will be wildly popular. Not only does this one tip off three hours after lock, but there are still players waiting to be confirmed, in addition to nearly every roster player being ruled out on both sides of the ball. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey out for the Thunder, the trio of Tre Mann, Theo Maledon, and Aleksej Pokusevski will be interesting targets, while Portland has Trendon Watford added to the injury report, opening up things for the likes of Greg Brown, CJ Elleby, and Drew Eubanks to log heavy minutes in the frontcourt.
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