DFSGhost 
We have a loaded NBA slate on tap for tonight considering only two teams were in action yesterday with March Madness beginning. There will be an overwhelming number of options to choose from, so it will be crucial to identify which games we need exposure to and reduce the size of the player pool. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks (+6)
One of the games that grades out the best in my model is the track meet between the Grizzlies and the Hawks. With John Collins (finger) already ruled out, and Danilo Gallinari (biceps) leaving Wednesday’s game only to not return, the Hawks can be awfully short tonight. Trae Young would be a staple point in our NBA lineups, pending that he is cleared to play; the top of the pricing grid is loaded with options that are all underpriced, but Young’s price decreased once again despite posting a 31.2/4/10.8 scoring line over his last five games through a 31.4% usage rate. Facing Ja Morant, who carries a 110.9 net defensive rating, is a matchup I want to exploit.
On the Memphis side of the ball, we’re sticking with primary ball handlers, as Ja Morant is slated to return to the lineup after missing Tuesday’s contest with a back injury. As much as I love Trae Young’s offensive game, he is simply atrocious on the defensive side of the ball, sporting a 117.5 net defensive rating, which is the second-worst amongst qualifying players in the NBA. Morant, who carries a 33.5% usage rate while posting a career-high 27.5/5.8/6.7 scoring line, is a contender to lead the slate in scoring.
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (-3)
While this game will likely go overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate, it shouldn’t. The Spurs sit 4th in the league in pace, while New Orleans has averaged nearly 120 PPG since acquiring CJ McCollum – make no mistake about it, this one will shoot out, and there’s a ton to love for tournaments.
Beginning with the Pelicans, McCollum draws a tough matchup versus the best perimeter defender in the NBA in Dejounte Murray (yes, I said what I said), so I’m likely to go elsewhere. In the absence of Brandon Ingram (hamstring), Devonte’ Graham has seen increased run in clutch minutes, but his questionable status for tonight makes things awfully interesting for this rotation. Going completely overlooked on this NBA slate is none other than Jonas Valanciunas, who gets a friendly matchup versus a Spurs frontcourt that sits 28th in both scoring and rebounding to opposing true big men. The tag is a decent one to pay, but JoVal has legitimate 20-15 upside in this game.
You know the drill by now; the Spurs are on tonight’s NBA slate, meaning I have interest in Dejounte Murray. The Pelicans already struggled mightily versus primary ball handlers, and acquiring CJ McCollum only made it worse. Enter Murray, who won’t garner much attention at all near the top of the pricing grid, being sandwiched between the likes of Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Ja Morant, and Trae Young. Murray comes into this one with nine straight games of 20 or more points, increasing his volume drastically since the departure of Derrick White to Boston. The All-Star has also averaged 26.7/8.7/9.7 over that span through a 30.8% usage rate, while the Spurs are also just 1.5 games back of the Pelicans for the final spot in the Play-In round – just saying.
Honorable Mentions:
- Dallas Mavericks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5)
- Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets (+3)
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
