DFSGhost 
Success in NBA DFS is contingent on your willingness to adapt to the news as it rolls in. Yesterday, we saw Jimmy Butler be ruled out for the Miami Heat, resulting in increased exposure to the likes of Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, and Bam Adebayo. While we will certainly see more of the same tonight, as we do on every NBA slate, there are already teams with players missing in action. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7)
One of two marquee matchups between Eastern Conference heavyweights on tonight’s NBA schedule, the Cavaliers travel to Philadelphia to face James Harden, Joel Embiid, and the Philadelphia 76ers. Sitting 27th in pace for the duration of the NBA season, the new-look 76ers are tied for 9th in pace over their last three games since James Harden made his debut alongside Joel Embiid. This team is no longer milking the shot clock with Joel Embiid in the post; rather, James Harden has taken over this offense, similarly to what he wanted to do in Brooklyn before his departure. Facing a Cavaliers team that carries the fourth-most efficient defense in the league doesn’t exactly scream “dream matchup”, but Harden and Embiid are sporting 24.5% and 36.3% usage rates in their first three games together, respectively, while averaging 1.71 FPPM and 1.67 FPPM, respectively. The duo is simply outright dominant, and one will certainly be in all of my NBA lineups today.
On the flip side of the ball, the combination of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will certainly have their hands full with Embiid in the post. However, it’s Darius Garland that gets a tremendous individual matchup versus a lackluster defender in James Harden. Sporting a 27.3% usage rate on the season, Garland is averaging a career-high 20.5/3.3/7.9 scoring line on 48% shooting, where he posted 33/3/4 in his lone game since the All-Star break following a two-game absence. While he is priced near his ceiling, Garland makes for a great tournament play on this NBA slate with legitimate 50-point upside.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ OKC Thunder (+8.5)
With numerous studs on this NBA slate, the firepower between two rebuilding teams may go overlooked. In the absence of Anthony Edwards (knee), Karl-Anthony Towns sees an increase in usage rate from 27.6% to 33%, including a lofty increase in FPPM, from 1.34 to 1.48. Additionally, in four games without Edwards this season, Towns has posted a 29.3/10/4.5 scoring line on 56.3% shooting, and now faces an OKC front court that ranks 27th versus true big men, including ranking 25th in rebounding, ranking last in both blocks per game allowed and rebounds allowed per game to opposing centers.
Should Josh Giddey (hip) sit this one out for OKC, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes for an intriguing tournament play on this NBA slate. Is he a 10.3K player? No, absolutely not. Is his sheer volume worthy of the tag? Absolutely. In the last three games with both Giddey and Dort out for the Thunder, SGA has posted a 34/7.3/6.7 scoring line on 55.6% shooting through a whopping 38.7% usage rate. Taking over 20 FGA per game in that span, the efficiency may dwindle down, but there’s no denying the fact that the volume that SGA will have tonight will contend for one of, if not the highest on the slate.
Honorable Mentions:
- Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards (+4.5)
- Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)
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