DFSGhost 
With the NBA schedule being adjusted this season to limit the amount of travel, we’re seeing a vast split in day-to-day action between a large number of games on one night, versus few games on another. Tonight, we have three games on tap, but it all begins with a potential NBA Finals preview at 7:30pm EST. It’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: At first glance, I’m likely going with two studs. With Joe Harris being out, the Brooklyn Nets hold a ton of value both in their starting lineup and off the bench, similarly to the Golden State Warriors’ front court.
Adam: As we stand now, I may wind up being more balanced than anything else. That doesn’t mean I’m not going to play star-level players, but I may not force in the guys that are over $10,000 on DraftKings because we have strong plays in the $8,500-$9,900 range.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Things may change as we get closer to lock, but right now I will be anchoring my build around Dejounte Murray and Kevin Durant. With the former getting a matchup versus the LA Clippers fresh off a 20-point triple-double, you know I’m going right back to the Spurs’ primary ball handler. As for the latter, Durant draws a home matchup versus his former franchise, where he’ll be tasked to run the offense all night long and – surprisingly – isn’t the most expensive player on the slate.
Adam: As a peek behind the curtain, I’m writing my part before Ghost writes his portion and we haven’t spoke to each other yet. I know he’s going to talk up Dejounte Murray and I’m on board, so I’ll point out that Donovan Mitchell is under $9,000, faces a Sixers perimeter defense that includes Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton, his usage is over 34%, and the Sixers are in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed from 3-point distance.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: While Paul George is the furthest thing from a bad play, the fact that I can get Kevin Durant for only $100 more on DK makes me land there rather than playing one of my favorites for MVP thus far.
Adam: Paul George and it’s not that he’s a bad play, but I play GPP only on these small slates. He’s within $600 of Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and James Harden who I believe all have higher upside. As amazing as George is playing, he’s not likely to go for 70 DraftKings points as often as the other three.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Kevin Durant and Patty Mills. While I do think Golden State covers (and wins outright), Durant will have the most amount of touches in a game that reeks of spite, while Mills’ production off the bench for the Nets will be crucial against a Golden State defense that is simply outstanding right now.
Adam: James Harden and Patty Mills. For Harden, he’s second in the league in isolation frequency and points scored in that lay typer per game while Golden State gives up the fifth-most points per game and the sixth-most points per possession. Both of these players will have ample opportunity to knock down three’s because Golden State allows the third-highest frequency of attempts from beyond the arc. Mills should see close to 30 minutes, if not more with Joe Harris out tonight and sits at 0.80 fantasy points per minute with an 18.7% usage rate. That is plenty for his salary.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Despite Kevin Durant dropping 35-10-5, Golden State not only covers as underdogs in Brooklyn, but they win outright behind solid contributions from Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, and none other than the current MVP favorite, Steph Curry.
Adam: Dejounte Murray has the highest fantasy score of the night.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
