Gary Gustafson 
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Back to the bubble
With the NBA season about to re-start with 22 teams quarantined in the Disney World bubble, fans and fantasy players will see a season play out in a way we have simply never seen before and it will make landing on your top NBA DFS picks an entirely new challenge.
The excitement as we head towards the start of the NBA season is going to build for DFS players who have been without it since Mid-March and we already have seen DraftKings step up with an NBA Millionaire Maker on Friday, July 31st and we are going to want a piece of that action! Since we have been away for so long and the rest of this NBA season is going to be a different kind of animal, let’s reset on where we left off and what we can look forward to!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: What to expect:
When the league restarts on July 30th, we will have 9 teams from the Eastern Conference and 13 teams from the Western Conference all vying for the usual 16 playoff spots and the NBA has set this restart up to include 8 remaining games to settle those playoff spots.
The one wrinkle is the 8th spot which is going to add a potential play-in type game that could become very interesting the loaded Western Conference.
If the team with the eighth-best record in its conference is more than four games ahead of the team with the ninth-best record in the same conference, no play-in tournament will be necessary. The final playoff berth will simply go to the team with the eighth best record (regular-season games + seeding games).
But if the team with the eighth-best ;record in its conference is four games or fewer ahead of the team with the ninth-best record in the same conference, then we’ll have a battle for the final spot between those two teams.
The tournament will basically be a best-of-two series where the No. 9 seed will have to win two head-to-head matchups to take over the No. 8 spot.
From NBA.com
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Who is in/out and where do they stand?
The one “normal” aspect of this final stretch in the NBA is that we have a varying degree of urgency for teams as some of the squads are simply prepping for the playoffs and will use this time as a warm-up, while others are essentially looking at this as a win and you’re in playoff time already. Like any other DFS sports, the end of the regular season is always a time to focus on the standings to find the teams with something to play for and thankfully by eliminating those out of contention, we have made our player pool far tighter with much fewer chances of shenanigans (yeah, looking at you Knicks).
So teams like the Milwaukee Bucks (6.5 spots up in the EC) and the Los Angeles Lakers (5.5 games ahead of LAC in the West), could end up spots to avoid with pricey plays like Giannis, AD and LeBron who are at risk of a limited run with championship goals being the priority. Conversely, with 6 teams in the Western Conference within 6 games of the final spot, we may have the opportunity to lead up on condensed starting rotations right out of the gate.
The question could become, as teams get “eliminated” under this restart, do we see the same old NBA DFS craziness with late scratches and load management and the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the pending threat of a COVID-19 outbreak which could change everything on a dime as it did back in March.
NBA DFS, in my opinion, has always been one of the most time-intensive fantasy sports as any day you intend to play a slate you are essentially required to follow the news until and after lock. Well, this new world is going to be even crazier as we have games essentially running all day.
Take the 7/31 Milly Maker as an example with 6 games on the slate, starting at 2:30 PM EST with games following at 4 PM, 6:30 PM, 8 PM and 9 PM. If you thought typical NBA DFS was crazy, this all-day news is going to make things like late swap a necessary strategy to focus on.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: What to watch for:
As we head towards the end of July, I would argue the most critical thing to watch for is the pending player news as we get more insight into which players will sit out entirely and those who may miss time due to COVID-19 health restrictions.
We have already seen a handful of players as I write this who will miss games when we head back to the court and in those instances, looking at the on/off court metrics will be key.
Davis Bertans as an example will sit out for the Washington Wizards and for a team that played at the 4th fastest pace in the league after the All-Star break, there are going to be clear winners here to soak up the usage and offensive production. Guys like Rui Hachimura and Moe Wagner had seen the biggest boosts this year with Bertans sidelined as both players saw more than a 4 fantasy point per 36 increase. Also, let’s not overlook the fact that even more of the load will fall on usage monster Bradley Beal.
The Brooklyn Nets we knew would already be without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant but we now know they will also be without Wilson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan with the status of Spencer Dinwiddie also in doubt after testing positive for COVID-19.
The absence of these players will have a massive impact on the typically crowded Brooklyn rotation who not only have a depleted roster but if you remember, a new coach in Jacque Vaughn who got a whopping week before the league suspension. Vaughn in limited sample size was running a condensed 8-9 man rotation before the break with Caris LeVert and Dinwiddie driving the lion’s share of usage. If Dinwiddie cannot return to the court, it is going to be the Caris show for Brooklyn and with DJ sidelined we may finally get consistent minutes for Jarrett Allen.
Rest up and get ready:
Like seemingly everything else these days, it is hard to know what life will look like hours, day and weeks from now and by the time we get to those first NBA DFS slates we will have a far greater understanding of the roster implications we need to sort through when setting our lineups.
Don’t sweat it though, when the season resumes Picks and Pivots will be here to break down every slate and help you shake off that quarantine rust. Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to create a FREE account here at Win Daily Sports and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports….FINALLY return.
