Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to a massive 10 game NBA DFS slate here on Wednesday Night where Picks and Pivots will sort through all the noise and give you a clear GPP strategy to taking down all the money on DraftKings and Fanduel!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Slate strategy is always dictated by value in NBA DFS. Always.
Tonight we have 20 teams on the slate and a massive amount of injury news that is pushing roughly 15 players at $4K or under on DraftKings into real-life NBA starting lineups. If you are not playing Stars and Scrubs tonight, you are doing it wrong – it is that simple.
To summarize what we are looking at tonight:
- The Lakers will be without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis against the Sacramento Kings
- The Raptors have already ruled out 5 players – OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Patrick McCaw and Malachi Flynn and have has to recall two players from the G League just to field a roster.
- The Rockets have already ruled out David Nwaba with both Eric Gordon and Danuel House questionable. If Gordon and House cannot play, the Rockets would have just 8 bodies against Brooklyn.
- Luka Doncic is questionable with a back injury and there is buzz he could sit heading into the All-Star Break.
- Oh, and Tobias Harris, Gordon Hayward, Buddy Hield, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Fournier, Jerami Grant and Cody Zeller are also questionable.
I try to be transparent when it comes to my advice and as concise and clear as I possibly can. I know you are all busy, you ain’t got time to track all the news so you look to me to help paint the picture.
Well here is the Picasso you lazy mother trucker – ALL THE VALUE. ALL THE STARS.
The end.
Stars and Scrubs 4Eva
Now, assuming the Detroit/Toronto game plays without any further COVID impact – between the Raptors and Lakers sans LeBron/AD, I am not sure we even need to get cute with value.
The Raptors are going to be Kyle Lowry ($8.1K) and a roster of punts like DeAndre Bembry ($3.4K) and Terrence Davis ($3.2K). The Lakers get to face the worst defense in the NBA in the last 10 games in Sacramento and will run their offense through guys like Dennis Schroeder ($5.9K), Markieff Morris ($3.7K) and Talen Horton-Tucker ($3.4K).
Now if we get Luka to sit on top of this – I think you see where the path to multiple value plays exist and that means your pick of the Stars.
From a strategy perspective, with so much value to sort through and multiple stars, I think ownership is going to play heavily into your decision-making.
We have James Harden ($11K) without KD heading back to Houston for the first time. All the narratives and all the revenge – and likely all the ownership for good reason. We mentioned Kyle Lowry already as the last man standing for Toronto at just $8.1K.
Not only will “new news” drive ownership today but the concentration of news is going to lead to group think.
Let me give you an example.
All the Raptors are out, Kyle Lowry gets left with all the usage and he is far too cheap considering that role.
Will anyone say the same for De’Aaron Fox ($9K)? The Kings have already ruled out Tyrese Haliburton and Hassan Whiteside and Buddy Hield is questionable so now you get Fox in a similar spot as Lowry where the entire offense will fall on him and he takes on the Lakers JV Squad as an added benefit?
Will anyone say the same for someone like Nikola Vucevic ($10.3K)? The Magic are already without Fultz, Anthony and Gordon and have Evan Fournier listed as questionable. Vuc is putting up 1.5 FP/M this season and 31% usage with all those guys off the court.
I bring players like Fox and Vuc up because they are great examples of where the same logic applies but the ownership likely does not follow. Everyone will flock to Lowry for $8.1K because he is the last man standing but will anyone pay the $900 more to get Fox in an similar spot?
With all this value – sure people will pay for James Harden, but will they double up and grab a $10K center like Vuc too?
This slate is different. This is not a “find a core” at 7AM EST kind of day.
Today, I will be heavily invested in ownership projections and industry buzz. With so much value that I think we NEED to use, the pivot path for me is getting different with my pay ups – that is how we made GPP noise tonight.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
If you are a tournament player like me, this is the kind of NBA DFS slate you get excited for. The roster paths are going to be VERY similar with so much value but that is going to lead to some seriously concentrated ownership and duplicate builds.
With the Raptors being short-handed, the Lakers playing without LeBron and AD and ~15 players under $4K projected to start tonight – this is the ideal Stars & Scrubs slate – and the pivot points will be swerving off the field with low-owned stars!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
