Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a massive eleven game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00 PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We open up today’s NBA DFS slate and are met with a massive 11 gamer just 24 hours away from the NBA Trade Deadline and in a season with so much pre-lock (and post-lock) craziness, this slate could end up being a total cluster you know what.
Not only do we have big-name injury news with players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Myles Turner, and Malcolm Brogdon all questionable but we have heavy trade discussions on guys like Aaron Gordon, Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell which is going to make navigating this slate quite tricky.
What it also means more than likely is we will have loads of value and I will keep hammering this home every single slate until the year is over – value dictates slates and stars set the cash line.
The stars we have tonight are the kinds that can win you slates on their own – the types that can go for 70-80 DK points and smash even these $11K price points – and that is exactly how I think we need to attack this slate.
Luka Doncic ($11K) is the most expensive player on the slate and going up against Minnesota, well there is good reason for it. Minnesota over the last 10 games ranks bottom 5 in the NBA in defensive rating, points allowed, FG% allowed, rebounds allowed, assists allowed, turnovers allowed and blocks allowed. Said another way – they stink defensively.
James Harden ($10.9K) gets the flow chart treatment tonight. Are Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant out? Yes. Play James Harden. For context, Harden put up 63 DK points last night against Portland and he did that shooting 29% percent from the floor including 0-7 from beyond the arc. Dude puts up 62 DK points on a night he only hit 7 shots – seriously, think about that for a second.
The only concern with Harden is his continued neck soreness which apparently was really close to making him miss last night. The biggest issue tonight – his game is at 10 PM EST – so if you hold out for him, you are missing out on Luka, Giannis, Joker etc and I think there is significant risk on the B2B.
Nikola Jokic ($10.7K) is fresh off a 71 DK point triple double last night, having now put up 70+ DraftKings points having now gone for 70+ in 5 of his last 10 games.
I am not trying to simply list the obvious plays here tonight – because what I have learned over and over this season, is that the obvious plays aren’t the ones people play.
Take last night as an example – sure everyone played James Harden as their stud but what you realize is people get squeamish going too top-heavy. That left Joker under 15% owned and it left Dame under 10% owned (boy if he didn’t shoot 29% we could have had the “nuts” as they say).
This was my line-up from last night – one that cashed easily in all Single Entry GPP’s and one as you can see was super top-heavy. What it shows you is how the stars can get you to the cash line on their own and that picking and choosing the right value around them is a consistent winning formula.
So listen, going Harden, Luka AND Joker is going to cost you but it leaves you with $3.5K per player for the rest of your build and I am here to tell you once again – IT IS DOABLE!
Guys – I am saying it is doable at 7AM EST – when we don’t even have news yet. On an 11 game slate the day before the trade deadline – more value is coming and so I will be 100% Stars and Scrubs again tonight.
So how do we make it work? Well, we can go right back to the same spots we went to last night in Brooklyn. We know Kyrie Irving is out again as is Landry Shamet – and on a B2B, I do wonder if Blake Griffin has his load managed. That would push TLC ($3.1K) again as a clear value play off the bench who was the first sub off the Brooklyn bench last night and played 27 minutes. With SF and PF eligibility on DraftKings, he is the perfect swiss-army knife value we can mix and match with his multi-position eligibility.
It is a day that end in Y and Brooklyn is playing – so I am contractually obligated to tell you that Nicolas Claxton ($4K) is still too cheap. The industry seems to finally be catching on to what the Ghost Model has been spitting for weeks, but this dude has now gone for 6X or higher in 3 of his last 4 games and would only get added boost if Blake were to sit.
Speaking of last night, Al Farouq Aminu ($3.7K) went off last night in 29 minutes, racking up 44 DK points on the back of a 17 point, 10 rebound and 6 assists performance against Denver. While I do not expect him to shoot 8 for 11 again, the minutes are secure as has been a 5X floor in each of his previous games. Another sub 4K play tonight with 6X upside and allows me to get in all the studs I want – yes please.
Staying in that Denver game – PJ Dozier ($3.4K) saw major run (28 minutes worth) and more importantly, got all the 4th quarter closing run with the starting unit. Dozier has eclipsed 20+ DK points now in 4 of his last 10 games, giving game log watchers comfort that this 6X path has been demonstrated with some serious consistency.
These are just names that jumped out at first glance – punts that can get me 20-25 DK points tonight and I hate to tell you – THAT IS ALL YOU NEED.
Think about it this way – assume the stars get you ceiling games of 70 DK points each (the outcome you are shooting for if you go this route by the way). That means you are sitting at 210 DK points with 5 players to go – meaning you need 18 points per player to “hit 300” or 28 points per player to hit 350.
Last night alone, Dozier (24), TLC (23), Claxton (29) and Aminu (44) got you 120 by themselves – added to your 210 “star trio” and you have 330 DK points with one player left to go.
This is not guaranteed by any stretch but “thinking through” the path is something that you NEED to go every day. If you cannot reasonably argue your build gets you to 300 on DraftKings, then you need to start over. Tonight, anchoring to the 3 stars is the most effective way to get that path outlined.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Stars. Scrubs. Repeat.
We have an 11 game NBA DFS slate the day before the Trade Deadline. We have all the star power we could want, early paths to value and more likely to come, and a path in my mind, that gives you a superstar-focused build (AGAIN) that will set the cash line. Stars. Scrubs. Repeat.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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