Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a massive 10 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
This Wednesday NBA DFS slate is a monster with 10 games on the slate and a whole lot of injury news to sort through. The Raptors may be without both Pascal Siakam & Fred VanVleet again tonight while all of Kemba Walker, Christian Wood, and Victor Oladipo are listed as doubtful to play. With 20 teams in the player pool and teams on B2B’s – I think we can comfortably say the value will be there for us once again!
I harp on this all the time in Picks and Pivots but VALUE DRIVES SLATES.
Do you know why the cash line was so high last night? Because a 70% owned Moses Brown at near minimum price went for 50+ and those savings were used for stars like Dame & LeBron who also put up ceiling games. Value opens up slates and paths to stars and when we have those slates we have to take that Stars/Scrubs approach. It has proven itself out this year in NBA DFS on a nightly basis and if we do not learn from those trends – we will never consistently cash.
Stars and Scrubs
There is SO much value at first glance today that this slate sets up for me much as it did on Monday Night, where getting 3 stars was the anchor of my NBA DFS builds.
We have five players priced above $10K on this slate and candidly, I see no reason to think having 2-3 of these players in our builds is not the right starting approach.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K) and Nikola Jokic ($10.8K) are the two pricey investments that I find myself most intrigued by early on.
Giannis gets to take on the Sixers without Joel Embiid inside after already putting up 67 and 73 DK points against this Philly team this season in games Embiid was on the court.
Jokic meanwhile gets to take on the vaunted Hornets duo of Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo. No really – that is who is going to try and slow him down tonight. I cannot wait for Ghost to post the “no one…no ooooooone” GIF when I ask in Discord who is stopping Jokic.
These are the kind of stars – the 70+ DK ceiling type plays that are going to set the cash line for you. The issue is, with other pivots in the same price range like James Harden and Luka Doncic, not only will ownership be spread out BUT you also have multiple paths to these kinds of builds succeeding. The fact you can get 2 and even 3 of these stars in your builds tonight is out of control! Think about it – Giannis, Joker, and one of Luka/Harden – could put up at 200-250 DK points ON THEIR OWN.
So if you go Stars and Scrubs – what is the likelihood that ALL of these stars have down games? You are going to have multiple ceiling plays from this group and so with that concept, I think you have to start your builds with this range and work backwards to the value.
And guys – it does not stop above $10K – go right below and you have star power from guys like Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Damontas Sabonis. Again the path to having 3 stars on this slate is simply too easy and you have so many paths to making that build work.
Of the group noted above – I have a lot of interest in Steph Curry ($9.8K) under $10K on DraftKings. Tonight Curry gets to take on the Rockets who will be without John Wall, likely without Victor Oladipo, and need one body who didn’t play last night to suit up just so Houston can field an 8 man team!
We have been using Houston for value in DFS routinely and we should again tonight – but let’s not overlook what this undermanned unit has meant to the opposition. Over the last 10 and 15 game stretches, the Rockets rank 3rd and 4th lowest in team defense, giving up the 2nd most points per game and ranking second to last in opposing 3P% while giving up the 4th most three-pointers per game.
Not sure if you guys know but this Curry guy is pretty good at shooting long range basketballs.
On a night where I expect to use multiple cheap Rockets – why not run it back with Curry at a discount in the “SMASH SPOT” as your – *laughs as he writes this* – third star in. Seriously imagine building a lineup and going – I have so much room even after locking in Giannis AND Joker, why not add Steph Curry in too. I feel like Space Jam putting together the Monstars.
The value on this slate likely starts with the Houston Rockets who had only 8 healthy bodies last night and looked primed for that once again tonight. The difference is – tonight Victor Oladipo will likely sit which means one of Christian Wood, Daniel House or Ben McLemore has to play tonight JUST TO GET 8 PLAYERS.
But let’s not act like this is the only value spot – in fact the value is going to come largely from the same damn places we have been using the last few nights. Tomas Satoransky has started back-to-back games, put up 33 and 31 DK points and his price is still $3.8K. Why are we overthinking this?
Daniel Thies ($4.1K) was an optimal play last night, dropping 40 DK points against the Jazz with Tristan Thompson in COVID protocols and now he gets the Cavaliers. Yep – right back to this one too.
There is obvious value as we noted above, the kind that draws the ownership and rightly so – but do not think for a second it is the only value you can use.
I was harping the Spurs bench value on Monday Night and it was essentially ignored by the industry but not for those in the Win Daily Sports Discord.
The Spurs will once again be without DeMar DeRozan and with LMA jettisoned – you are left with a nine man rotation of, well – “stuff.” And while “stuff” isn’t exactly a reason to play these guys – a match-up with the Bulls is – and my focus is once again on the cheapies – specifically the first two men off the bench for San Antonio – Drew Eubanks ($3.1K) and Devin Vassell ($3.2K).
These guys are both locked into meaningful minutes, they are the first men off the bench in both the first and second half and what is even better is that as the Spurs get blown out – they get all the 4th quarter run. So you are getting two guys at minimum price, that both went for 6X+ last game and we can run it back again in a better match-up? Yes please.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate may have 10 games, 20 teams and a massive player pool – but the strategy is about as easy as you can make it – Stars. Scrubs. Repeat.
Value dictates slates. Value gives you stars. Tonight we have all the value and a clown car jammed with star power. Do not overthink it – starts your builds with the star power that drives the ceiling and work in the slate breaking value that will come in droves.
Keep it simple kids.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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