Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back my NBA DFS friends and family to the second half of the NBA season! After a few days off for the NBA All-Star Break, we are back tonight with a short two-game slate that kicks off at 8 PM EST with the Grizzlies/Wizards followed by the Spurs and Mavericks.
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Whenever we have a smaller slate like this two-game NBA DFS slate we have tonight, the approach to builds becomes far more about game theory and strategy than it does about simply picking the right plays.
From a macro perspective, it is hard not to look at this slate and focus solely on the Grizzlies and Wizards, a game with a 236+ total that is 15+ points higher than the Spurs and Mavericks.
Memphis and Washington has everything you want from a NBA DFS contest – you have two teams that rank in the top 10 in pace this year and taken over the last 10 games they rank 1st (Washington) and 4th (Memphis) in pace.
This was a game if you remember, we targeted in Picks and Pivots right before the All-Star Break, and largely we got exactly what we expected as Russell Westbrook and Ja Morant both dropped 50+ DK point outings.
There will however be a few differences tonight as Kyle Anderson is expected to regain his starting role after sitting out this last contest but Memphis will remain without Grayson Allen.
One thing we should do on these small slates is taking time to dig deeper, and with this game happening a few days ago – we can look farther than the simple game logs – and that means diving into the game flow from our friends at Popcorn Machine.
This game was a near 20 point beat down by halftime and it forced Washington into new rotations as they opted to bench Moe Wagner and Garrison Matthews for Robin Lopez and Isaac Bonga in the second half. It was Alen Len and Davis Bertans however that got the majority of the fourth-quarter run, however.
The constants though were Russell Westbrook ($10.1K) and Bradley Beal ($9.4K) – the two main pieces in this fast-paced Washington attack and I would argue you will need at least one of these players in your build tonight if not both.
Westbrook in high-paced match-ups is a the ideal spend up for floor and ceiling, having hit for 57, 58 and 60 DK points over the last 10 games against teams in the top 10 in pace including Memphis, Minnesota and Houston.
While Beal had a down game against Memphis with just 37 DK points, he put up 54 and 55 DK points against Minnesota & Houston – flashing every bit the upside and showing that BOTH players can hit ceilings in the right match-up. Make no mistake – this is the right match-up.
Davis Bertans ($4.4K) is someone I argued to use in this spot last game and I plan to go right back to the well tonight. Memphis is giving up over 14 three-pointers made the last 10 games, ranking among the bottom 5 teams in the NBA. Bertans as mentioned is getting all the closing run for Washington, averaging 7.5 3PA per game over his most recent four-game stretch, and his rotations as you can see above, come with the second unit in the staggered runs when one of Beal OR Westbrook is off the court – meaning he gets a huge bump in production and with his SF/PF eligibility on DK, gives you a nice mid-range option here.
The rest of the Wizards are punt plays – and risky ones at that – but ones you may have to hold your nose and hope with tonight as we are scrounging for value. Moe Wagner and Garrison Mathews will draw the starts again tonight and are near minimum price but the minutes are far from secure. However, look at Mathews ($3.3K) as an example – if the recent dud against Memphis scares people off – I would say we simply need to go back to the last fast-paced game against Minnesota a few games before where he dropped 30 DK points. A similar performance tonight, weirdly enough, becomes a slate-breaking type performance that unlocks all the star power.
The safest punt here tonight on Washington may be Deni Avdija ($3.1K) who has played 25 minutes off the bench in each of the last two games for Washington with a consistent second half/closing run.
The Memphis side of this game, like it was the first time around – is laughably priced. No player over $8K on DK and only Ja Morant ($7.8K) and Jonas Valanciunas ($7.1K) are even over the $7K mark.
Morant dropped 58 DK points in this same spot, put up 51 the next game against the Clippers, and is still just $7.8K. You are playing Ja tonight – otherwise, you get the Rick James treatment.
JoVal was solid but unspectacular the first meeting between these two teams with 29 minutes and 35 DK points. However, looking back at that game log, he was limited by foul trouble with 3 early first half fouls that torpedoed his minutes. Chalk that up to variance – because if JoVal can stay out of foul trouble – he could match Morant with a 50 burger at a far too cheap price tag.
I would argue the Morant/Valanciunas pairing with at least one of Westbrook/Beal is a core strategy tonight and one that should anchor cash and GPP builds.
The rest of the Memphis side is more mix and match value in my mind – players that are last men in versus priorities. Both Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke are strong mid-range plays while Desmond Bane and Justise Winslow provide salary relief and concrete 20-minute roles. Winslow at $3.9K is probably one of the best PP/$ plays on this slate and his ability to be used at guard or forward on DK, provides serious roster flexibility.
This is where I think strategy comes into play, however – more so with Beal/Westbrook and how it pertains to what we do with Luka Doncic ($10.7K).
The Dallas/San Antonio game for DFS purposes tonight is pretty simple to me in how I want to attack it. With both teams essentially full healthy – it is either Luka or “insert one-off scrub” that makes a Washington/Memphis game stack work.
The Spurs are getting their entire roster back after health protocols forced them to be short-handed prior to the break – so no thanks trying to pick and choose from this Popovich mess. The Mavs when fully healthy – its Luka or bust.
On small slates, raw points matter and it is hard to argue against Luka for raw points floor and upside. The argument really though comes down to how you use him – and it even more simplified – likely comes down to Luka versus either Westbrook OR Beal.
The easy decision is really to go Westbrook over Beal. Westbrook gets peripherals – Beal does not. Beal is far more scoring dependent and as a result, his floor is far lower than either Westbrook or Luka tonight. Paying up for the wrong star could be the death kneel tonight and I think Beal has a path to bust that Westbrook and Luka simply do not.
Now the other side of this is ownership – everyone can go back two games just like we did and see it was all Westbrook and Beal was an underperformer relative to price. What if Beal becomes the forgotten pay up then? The only real reason to go Beal over Westbrook tonight in my opinion is the ownership game – IF it gets us significant leverage. All things considered, I want the upside of Westbrook and the more guaranteed floor.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
So looking at this NBA DFS slate tonight we have a few key decision points.
The high-priced guard decision of Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, and/or Luka Doncic is step #1 in our builds tonight. Raw points matter on small slates and you need to anchor to at least two of these guards that can set the cash line on their own.
The second decision well – is not even a decision – take two guards above – and lock in the laughably under priced Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas.
If you step back and think about it – you have a path here of 200-250 DK points just from this four man core. Morant, Jo Val and Westbrook combined for 151 DK points last game while Luka dropped 66 DK points in his only game against the Spurs this season.
Said another way – if they simply replicate those outings – this foursome would combine for nearly 220 DK points on their own.
If you can get that kind of output from your core, it becomes a race to 300 DK points – meaning can your 4 punts scrape their way to 20 DK points each?
Take your stand tonight. Prioritize the stars that can set the cash line and ignore the ones who cannot.
Welcome back NBA!
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