Gary Gustafson 
Happy Hump Day my NBA DFS friends, we are back with another 12 games on this NBA Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel and a whole lot to break down! As always on slates like this, we need to do our best to condense our player pool, watch and react to news as it opens up value – and prioritize the stars that can win you the slate!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Before you dive into this 12 game slate, I want you to take a second to remember what Monday’s 10 game slate was like. Remember D’Angelo Russell getting ruled out, then Robert Covington and Joel Embiid, and all of a sudden we had this weird Carmelo Anthony/Dwight Howard chalk value night in 2021?
I bring that up because with 12 games on tap tonight – you better believe we will see enough wild news today to push plays to the forefront our models, projections and ultimately our builds – that we are likely not even thinking about at first look.
Now at first glance, I will be honest – my gut instinct was to go right back to the same general spots we did on Monday with the Warriors/Wolves and Nets/Hawks.
Steph Curry is simply too cheap. Clint Capela is going to dominate this Nets interior like we just saw Bam Adebayo do – but you know what – my man Adam Strangis did such a good job of breaking down those guys in his Cash Game Breakdown today (also FREE) – that I will let him handle those guys.
I love those plays – but let me take a different turn today here in Picks and Pivots and go a different route to help you think through some different options.
Building my GPP Core: Part One
Looking over this slate, there are so many great game environments that I do think you can let ownership dictate a bit where you land. If games like the Nets/Hawks end up being the spot to attack we have enough viable pivots to capture upside elsewhere (if we choose).
One of the first spots for me is the Wizards and Pelicans.
Now Washington is on the tail end of the B2B and that likely means no Russell Westbrook which when you add on that the Wizards have still not welcomed back any of Thomas Bryant, Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura, Ish Smith, Moe Wagner and Trow Brown Jr. – well, you start to see where we are going.
All that likely means all the usage and fantasy production for one Bradley Beal ($10.2K). The last time Westbrook sat, against the Suns on January 11th, Beal put up 64 DK points with just 3 combined rebounds/assists away from a triple-double.
The interesting thing about that game – the Wizards actually had the depth that night – with Rui, Bertans, and Wagner all being able to play – so imagine tonight what that could mean for Beal? If the Wizards ran a 9 man rotation last night with Westbrook, can we project Beal and just 7 others to get meaningful minutes tonight? If so – hello ceiling game.
While Beal sans Westbrook may be what draws you to this game – I actually think it is the other side of this game that I have the most interest in and that is with a New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans were a team I loved to stack last season. LOVED. They were young, athletic and played at a breakneck speed. It was DFS gold.
Then Stan Van Gundy killed my dreams.
The Pelicans rank 23rd in pace this season and 20th in offensive efficiency – not exactly metrics that make you want to stack them up. However, I think tonight is the spot to do so.
We know Washington plays not only at the fastest pace in the NBA but they also rank bottom 3 in defensive efficiency.
A similar team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, both in pace and defensive inability, just played New Orleans and in that game, the Pelicans ran 108 possessions, the fastest such pace they have played at all season and well would you look at that – their young core starters saw their fantasy output increase. Weird huh?
Zion Williamson ($7.8K) played 38 minutes in that game, with a 19/11 double-double and 42 DK points and that was with poor shooting (just 37%). Remember the Wizards are down to Robin Lopez and Alex Len in the middle and we just saw Boogie Cousins dominate this Washington frontcourt last night to the tune of 50 DK points. Who exactly is slowing Zion down tonight? The answer is nobody.
Lonzo Ball ($5.6K) finally saw his ceiling reached last game as he hit 6x value on the back of 34 DK points in 30 minutes. Ball excels in up-tempo games where his peripheral/counting stats can prop up his DFS scores and we saw that against Minnesota with strong assists, rebounds and blocks/steals.
Ball is the perfect compliment to someone like Zion if you are mini-stacking because he doesn’t need to score to hit ceiling. In fact, he hit just 4 shots against Minnesota and still got to 6x value!
Building my GPP Core: Part Two
The other game that really intrigues me tonight is the Thunder-Suns, a game with injury news to open up value and seemingly under-priced star power.
The Suns will be without Devin Booker again tonight, which means Phoenix becomes the Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton show. At mid $7K price points on DraftKings, you are looking for 45 DK points to get that coveted 6X value and the metrics would tell you that this year with Booker off the court, this duo is averaging 44 DK points per 36 minutes of court time.
Now, not to over simplify, but if the “typical” production in this scenario puts them right at this range and we know they have upside for more – why are we not just locking them in tonight?
Al Horford may return tonight, but if he does not – remember Enes Kanter just dropped a 22/13 line on this same under-sized and under-manned OKC front court.
The OKC side of this game is going to be a bit more wait and see as both George Hill AND Al Horford are questionable. If they miss again tonight it means more run for Isaiah Roby and potentially another start for Theo Maledon.
The one guy that intrigues me on the OKC side, besides the obvious in SGA – is Lu Dort ($4.8K). The Suns without Booker last game really struggled to defend the wings/forwards of Denver as Michael Porter Jr. dropped 30 real-life points and 46 DK points off the bench which included a whopping 10 3PA.
We know Dort is not afraid to shoot and we only need to look back a few games where he threw up 11 3PA against the Bulls on his way to 46 DK points. At this price point, it sounds crazy, but he has demonstrated 10x upside while the floor is well – quite low – so it is best reserved for GPP’s but could be a slate breaker in this match-up.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
At first glance this slate looks incredible. I am sure we will get insane news that throws all our best laid plans out the window but do not fret and do NOT chase every bit of news.
Value is going to come. It happens every slate of this size. So be patient, wait on it and react but do not overreact.
A good example of this came last slate for me. I had my core build on Monday with a $3K slot waiting and when the Joel Embiid news hit, all of a sudden I had value but I did not have enough to get to Dwight Howard. Rather than pay down from guys in my core to jam in Howard, I kept my core as it was and instead pivoted to Tony Bradley who ended up being incredible leverage and PP/$ value. Sometimes, you just need to take what the slate gives you!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
