Gary Gustafson 
Happy Hump Day my NBA DFS family and friends – after a wild Tuesday Night in the Association, we are back with 10 games on DraftKings and Fanduel and the Win Daily Sports crew is ready to attack this slate with our top NBA DFS picks!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We have a monster 10 game NBA DFS slate here on Wednesday and a TON of injury news we have to watch for, specifically with teams on back to backs that could push guys like Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard and Kemba Walker to sit.
What will be interesting to me, is will people chase the “new news” today?
This is something we see happen like clockwork in NBA DFS – take Monday’s slate for example where Andre Drummond gets ruled out and Jarrett Allen all of a sudden is 50-60% owned. Terry Rozier gets ruled out and LaMelo Ball is pushing 70% ownership in tournaments.
It is not that these are bad plays in a vacuum, but everyone chasing the same news and the “if player X is out, play Player Y” theory – seems totally unnecessary on a 10 game slate.
Sure you can look at Monday’s slate and say – but Jarret Allen went for nearly 60 DK and SMASHED. Yes, he did – but LaMelo Ball needed OT just to hit 30 DK points at $6.5K so just because you play the chalk, doesn’t mean it is always the right path.
Now in cash games – you match the field 100% – but in GPP’s, which is where I focus – ownership dictates decisions and if folks want to chase the shiny new toys today – let em!
Building Our Core
I will tell you – my man Adam Strangis absolutely nailed this slate in his Cash Game Breakdown today and I implore you to read it. If we get Russell Westbrook out – you want Bradley Beal, with John Wall out – we are going to want Victor Oladipo and so on. He absolutely nails those cash games and likely chalky paths tonight.
However if the “stars” that draw ownership are going to be the Bradley Beals of the world – why not pivot?
I know everyone was focused on Fred Van Vleet last night, but do not overlook the fact that high-end stars like Steph Curry (73 DK) and James Harden (65 DK) put up massive games at sub 5% ownership.
If everyone is looking in the same place, do we see a similar story play out where the other high end stars are ignored?
There are two games I absolutely love tonight if I am trying to find a Stars/Scrubs GPP build – the Pacers/Bucks and the Mavericks/Hawks.
In both cases you are attacking high total games with star power – the kind of high ceiling plays that can set a cash line and win you a slate.
The Mavericks/Hawks game is going to be centered around Luka Doncic ($10.8K) and Trae Young ($9.5K) but I would not overlook the interior plays of Clint Capela ($8.8K) and Kristaps Porzingis ($7.5K) who both feel far too cheap considering the minutes and high usage roles they have.
Attacking Dallas inside has been a profitable strategy all season but especially in recent weeks and we have seen opposing Centers put up ceiling games the last 14 days including Rudy Gobert (68 DK points) and DeMarcus Cousins (58).
The Bucks/Pacers has similar star power with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K) at the top of the list but much like in the Hawks/Mavs game, the secondary “stars” feel too cheap – most notably Domanatas Sabonis ($8.3K).
What I love about both games is how you can build very similar 2v2 game stacks – both in terms of star power/upside and in terms of position fits.
Take a look below at the shell/cores you can build in both cases – you capture the same type of upside and more or less you are left with the same positions and salary per position to fill out your builds. If you are multi-entering or even playing just two lineups, you can get essentially the same value plays mixed around these stud cores.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
We have ALOT of news to wait on and frankly that news is going to dictate how we attack this slate. Also – ownership matters – and if all of a sudden the “new news” of the day pushes everyone to the same stars – I love the idea of moving to the forgotten studs as we did last night with Harden and Curry.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
