Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home to another Wednesday edition of Picks and Pivots as we break down this 9 game NBA DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel after our members had a monster Tuesday Night of profit on the back of the Brooklyn/Sacramento shootout!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Value dictates slates in NBA DFS, unlike nearly any other daily fantasy sport. We talk about this all the time, but playing $3K punts is never about the punt plays themselves – it is about what it allows you to pay up for.
Last night the winning GPP lineups on DraftKings followed a similar path no matter the contest size or selection. Lineups in some cases were 50% made up of punts including Saben Lee, Svi Mykhaliuk, James Johnson, and Furkan Kormaz.
Don’t believe that Stars and Scrubs is viable? This was the second place entry in the $12 entry, $100K to first GPP on DraftKings last night.
The formula works.
So how can you take this knowledge and apply it to tonight? Well, this slate tonight arguably has more potential value than Tuesday Night’s slate even did!
Stars and Scrubs
Nobody is waking up today and thinking – man I cannot wait to get multiple $3K turds into my lineup tonight – but they should be. We are going to have a silly amount of value on this slate with high-end players like John Collins, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, Victor Oladipo, and the entire San Antonio Spurs roster being injured.
Looking at the projected lineups today, we have 10-15 sub $4K players on DraftKings expected in the starting rotation. Said another way – just under 20% of the starters tonight will be punts.
I am not going to wax poetic today of why Trey Lyles is a great play or push a chalky Saben Lee on you. I will say – we have been attacking PG’s against New Orleans here for weeks, so I am happy to eat the Saben Lee chalk tonight.
With this much value, I let our Win Daily Model narrow down the value pool – but what you need to know is, the value is plentiful and you need to use MULTIPLE pieces of it tonight.
So, follow the path laid out above – lock in multiple $3K starters – mix and match the Spurs pieces, throw in Saben Lee and you are off and running.
The question is – which stars are the ones you need to anchor to?
The answer is quite simple, whichever one you want. If I have all this obvious value, why am I not simply locking in the two best players on this slate in LeBron James ($10.9K) and Steph Curry ($10K)?
Sure you can argue the back to back but what both these MVP’s have in common is something we covet in DFS – solo usage. Curry and LeBron both rank inside the top 10 in usage this season and while Curry has been the entire Golden State offense all season, we are now getting LeBron sans AD which has resulted in 50+ DK points on a nightly basis and a 60+ point ceiling game last night against the Wizards.
Curry has put up 57, 58 and 60 DK points in his last three outings and in his case, as well as LeBron’s – what really stands out to me is the volume. No player in the NBA the last 3 games is shooting the ball more than Curry (25.5 FGA/game) while LeBron is in 3rd at 24.3 shots per game. Curry is blowing the league out of the water by the way – with 15 3PA per game in that tine – only 3 other players are even in double-digits.
I bring these obvious plays up because if I am going to use my hard-earned American Dollars to play multiple scrubs – I want the stars with all the usage and all the volume. I do not simply want a star who can “get there” – I want the stars like we saw last night that can win you a slate. No two stars on tonight’s slate are commanding more usage and more volume than Curry and LeBron right now and so if we are going Stars and Scrubs, they better be your first two stars.
You do not have to go far to find the third star I want – Karl-Anthony Towns ($9.7K) against the Bulls “interior” defense. Adam brought this up in his article yesterday that the new Minnesota staff wanted to run more of the offense through KAT and the last two games we are seeing the 60 DK point and triple-double type ceiling he can posses.
If you need a reminder of what elite bigs can do against the Bulls – here are some of the lines against them the last 10 games.
- Domantas Sabonis – 25/10/5 for 53 DK points
- Nikola Vucevic – 43/19/4 for 78 DK points
- Joel Embiid – 50/17/5 for 92 DK points.
Seems like KAT has a ceiling path eh? (that is for you Ghost).
One more Ghost special in the mid-range before we go. If we are looking to live with a similar build to what I outlined last night, we need a mid-range ceiling play and the one that jumps out to me is Mason Plumlee ($6.4K).
The Pelicans have been a bottom 3 defensive team the last 10 days, and while we have attacked them with guards primarily, this is a spot where PlumDawg can and HAS shown his ceiling.
Go back to Valentine’s Day – no, not the memory of you sobbing in your pillow, the one of Mason Plumlee dropping a 17 point, 10 rebounds, 10 assist triple-double against this very same Pelicans defense on his way to a 50 burger on DK.
Plumlee’s price has dropped nearly $1K in the last week due only to lower shooting volume but all the peripherals remain. If you are looking for a mid-range play with 50 DK point upside as a 4th “Star” – well, look no further.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Say it with me – Value dictates slates.
Tonight, it is not about wanting to play multiple Spurs chalk scrubs or a 300% owned Saben Lee. You play these values and the others we have/will have in order to prioritize the stars and this Stars/Scrubs path tonight is one that is laid out on a silver platter for us. Do not overthink it – pick your 3 favorite stars, LeBron, Chef Curry, etc. – lock in the value – and make money.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
