Brian Tulloch 
Happy Wednesday my NBA DFS family and friends! After a huge night for the Picks and Pivots core plays, we are back with a nine-game slate to break down on DraftKings and FanDuel and some more money to win!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
If you liked yesterday’s money-making Picks and Pivots write up, well then you are going to LOVE this one. We have 9 games on tap with a ton of injury news that will open up all the value we could want and that lets us get to attacking by far my favorite game on the slate – Brooklyn and Indiana.
If you need a reminder of why we attack Brooklyn – go back and look at last night’s slate and what the high-powered Pistons offense (sarcasm detected) was able to do to the Nets.
So tonight we get to attack the same Nets defense on a back to back with a Pacers team that is simply far too cheap.
You could take a similar approach to how we attacked Detroit last night and go with an inside/outside trio with Damonatas Sabonis ($8.6K), Myles Turner ($6K), and Malcolm Brogdon ($7.4K).
Seriously the pricing on Sabonis is downright laughable and he is going to be chalk we want to eat. But much like we saw with Detroit last night, Jerami Grant was chalk but the “add-on” plays like Plumlee/Delon were a fraction of the ownership – so sometimes tacking on that 1-2 extra plays in the same great spot can help you get the ownership edge we want in GPP’s.
No team in the NBA is giving up more point in the paint than Brooklyn right now, so going double bigs seems like an optimal way to attack this and we also cannot overlook that Brooklyn has one of the highest turnover rates in the league since the trade which adds ceiling to someone like Brogdon in the back court.
Now, what we continue to see on a nightly basis with Brooklyn is the ownership – just does not follow them – and so this is where I think you have to get run back to really take that GPP mindset to the next level.
James Harden ($10.4K) has now put up 62, 62 and 59 DK points in the three games with Kyrie Irving on the floor with Kevin Durant sidelined and yet we saw last night where he remains under 20% owned on DraftKings and even lower on FanDuel. Why?
We focus on the Brooklyn defense a lot here but let’s not overlook how bad Indiana is. Since the Victor Oladipo trade, the Pacers rank as the 9th worst team in defense rating across the NBA and their perimeter defense has really plummeted as they are giving up 14 3PT’s per game and allowing teams to shoot at just under a 40% clip – both marks that rank among the league’s worst 7 teams in that stretch.
Harden is the lock – the question then is really what we want to do next. I mentioned this in Discord last night, but watching that Nets game unfold, it was obvious that Kyrie Irving was having issues shooting the ball down the stretch. He air-balled a wide-open three and then on the next possession tried to shoot left-handed on a drive to the basket which prompted the Nets play by play crew to point out he was shaking his hand on the sidelines. Even in the post-game, Kyrie himself mentioned he just needs to “play through it” which gives me pause paying $9K for that kind of risk.
If we are going to fade Kyrie, then I want the secondary scoring options for Brooklyn and that leads me to Joe Harris ($6K) and Bruce Brown ($4.4K).
Harris was an afterthought last night on the offensive end, but we mentioned the Pacers ineptitude on perimeter defense lately – which sets up perfectly for a Joey Buckets three-point barrage. Brown actually started the second half last night with the Nets opting to scrap their Jeff Green/DJ starting duo and going smaller in the second half – in all honesty, neither worked – but what Brown provides is REALLY interesting for DFS purposes.
Brown racked up 9 boards and 4 steals last night and while the Nets do not have an inside presence that I want – Brown could give us some upside against a Pacers team giving up the most second-chance points in the NBA since the Oladipo trade. Brown actually ranks second on the team in offensive rebounds per game behind DeAndre Jordan so there is some sneaky potential for upside with Brown based on the Pacers struggled on the defensive glass.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This Brooklyn game stack was good to me last night and frankly, everything from a metrics standpoint says to go back to it. We have a game projected at the second-fastest pace on the slate with two teams ranked in the bottom 10 defensively since that Oladipo trade 13 games ago.
Now add to the fact that the Pacers are priced far to cheap and we actually get the Nets players at a discount from last night – and why are we making this complicated?
A Brogdon/Sabonis/Turner with Harden/Harris/Brown mini stack will leave you with $7.2K for the last two spots in your build on DraftKings, making this a perfect high ceiling game stack with the balance to build around!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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