Gary Gustafson 
It is HUMP DAY my NBA DFS friends and we are greeted with a perfectly sized six-game slate to play on DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. After Tuesday Night’s monster 10 gamer that was well, the usual NBA DFS nonsense, with news like Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray both being ruled out well after lock – hopefully, this one plays a bit more straight on.
Any time you have slates like last night where key players are ruled out after lock, it is always a frustrating reminder of what this sport can be as had we known that news prior to tip-off we would have made guys like Paul George and Nikola Jokic core plays. If you are new to NBA DFS, you need to understand the importance of late swap and that “watching the news” doesn’t just apply to the first game’s tip-off. Keeping those alerts on until all games have started is a necessary part of the NBA grind!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look
While we have a much more manageable slate here tonight, it does not mean we start off the day free of injury news that could and will change the slate once we get it (hopefully before the 7:30 PM EST lock).
- LeBron James is once again questionable to play. Key note – today is LeBron’s birthday so you know the narrative is strong.
- Kawhi Leonard missed last night’s game with a “mouth” – as we outlined here yesterday if he is out, it is a huge bump to Paul George and Lou Williams.
- Ja Morant and Kristaps Porzingis remain out for the next few weeks.
- Jimmy Butler is officially listed as questionable on the B2B in a rematch of Tuesday Night’s Bucks-Heat beatdown.
When setting your lineups tonight, it is important to note that 5 of the 6 games are set to tip-off by 8:30 PM EST with the Clippers/Blazers as the lone 10 PM EST start. What that means – if we do not have Kawhi Leonard news by say 8-8:15 PM EST, you better be ready to pivot because you won’t have many options if you chose to wait for final lineup confirmation in that late-night hammer.
My gut feel – LeBron will play, Kawhi will return as they used the “mouth” injury as a reason to get in some load management and Jimmy Butler will be back after watching his team get their teeth kicked in. If that all happens – well – bye bye value!
Buiding Our Core:
One of the most consistent questions the experts at Win Daily Sports get each day in Discord is if we have a “core” to build around. The short answer is – yes, typically – and so today I will do my best to outline a core build strategy in this first look article and we can revisit that in my FREE Picks and Pivots live video which you can find on our YouTube channel.
Today’s core for me is going to start and end with the Brooklyn/Atlanta game that checks all the boxes we look for in NBA DFS – 1) High total at nearly 240, 2) the fastest projected pace between two teams that have been top 10 in pace both last year and so far this regular season and 3) the perfect blend of star power and value!
Let’s not bury the lead – start your builds today with the star trio in this game – Trae Young with Kyrie Irving & Kevin Durant. The pricing on these guys is laughable – both Nets studs under $9K? I can stack all three and still have $4.7K left per player. There is my core – done and done.
In all seriousness, the Nets stars are just too cheap in this type of game environment and if you are stacking them, you need to run it back with Trae with the assumption he is the reason this game stays close and we get a full game of run from our pay up stars.
Finding Our Value:
You can make a very strong argument to simply stay in Brooklyn and Atlanta to find all your value as the rest of this game is seemingly all under-priced. Only one other player in this game, besides the big 3, is above $7K and that is John Collins – meaning the rest of the game can become easy mix and matches if you want to game stack it.
On the Hawks side, this is a team that could be getting back to full health as we saw Clint Capela return to the starting lineup last game, and tonight we could get Danillo Gallinari back as well. The hard part with Atlanta is, the healthier they get, the deeper the rotation is and the more it caps the value we have found in these fringe players. If Gallo is back it really limits the appeal of Bogdanovic/Hunter as this trio is going to present a really crowded wing rotation for the Hawks and may leave me only interested in the value of Cam Reddish ($4.4K) in the backcourt.
The Nets side of this game after Kyrie/KD also feels far too cheap with Caris LeVert the only play over $6K on DraftKings. With Spencer Dinwiddie out for the year, my expectation is LeVert stays in the 6th man role in games where Kyrie/KD are healthy which likely means TLC ($4K) slots into the starting lineup.
Now, I know we were on TLC last game but let’s not get it twisted – homeboy is not going to get a 25% usage rate with Kyrie and KD back on the court. Go play defense and stand in the corner and be ready if they happen to kick it to you. And if that is the route you are playing – then play Joe Harris ($5.1K) who becomes the default third option now in the starting unit and gives you far more peripheral upside.
The Nets player I am really intrigued by tonight is DeAndre Jordan ($4.6K) as a result of this match-up with both Clint Capela and John Collins on the Atlanta side. The Nets are going to have to play more traditional big man minutes with the Hawk’s ability to play big and we saw it last game against Memphis with Jonas Valanciunas that DJ basically matched his court time so they could match GIRTH WITH GIRTH.
I really just wanted to write girth in my article today.
If DJ does get anywhere close to 30 minutes again, at this price point – he could end up with an easy path to 6X once again!
Now – there is one other spot on this slate that I have a ton of interest for value and that resides in Dallas as a result of Josh Richardson being questionable.
If you have read Picks and Pivots before, you know where this is going. If you are new – well, welcome to the show.
Say it with me people – Tim Hardaway Jr.
Yeah, it may have taken me over a week into the NBA season to mention the Picks and Pivots cover boy but if Richardson is out tonight – THJ is going to shimmy his way right into my core!
If there is one thing we know with Dallas, it is that they DESPERATELY need that secondary scoring option alongside Luka Doncic and from a DFS perspective, that secondary option tends to draw strong usage and volume. With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined and if Richardson were to sit – that all flows to THJ ($5.8K).
It is a small sample size obviously but with Richardson off the court this season, Hardaway has a ….wait for it… 35% usage rate. Now, I understand it is in 25 minutes of court time but this is what we know with Dallas thus far – there are legit only 3 offensive options with Luka, Richardson, and THJ right now and they are the only three players averaging double-digit FGA.
If you take Richardson off the court – sure, Luka may shoot it 50 times but I want that cheap secondary piece every time and against the Hornets tonight, that means ALL the THJ.
One other value piece here before we go – keep an eye on our projections model today because I am fascinated to see how Trey Burke ($3.2K) pops IF Richardson is ruled out. Burke is the direct sub for Richardson and has the kind of offensive game that could get you 10X value if he is chucking. After calling my shot with TLC two nights ago and Hamidou Diallo last night – tonight, Trey Burke is my punt value LOCK of the night if Richardson is out.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
After a massive slate last night, this six gamer is exactly the kind of slate I love to play in NBA DFS as it is big enough where we can get different but its not so overwhelming we have to cover every possible player option.
This slate for me starts with Brooklyn and Atlanta and that is where I will plant my flag – not only with the the star trio but I think we can mix and match the mid-range value here easily in a game stack.
Keep an eye on the news – remember we get an extra 30 minutes before lock tonight – and if you have not – come join the Win Daily team, I promise you it will be worth your time!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
