Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a solid 6 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00 PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Before we jump into tonight’s NBA DFS slate, I do think it is important we circle back to last night’s slate and the chaos that ensued post lock with John Wall and Christian Wood announced on minutes limits and Jayson Tatum being ruled out.
This was a massive change to our night as the Rockets/Raptors was our core “pivot” off the Bucks chalk and we were squarely on Tatum with Kemba out of the lineup. However, as we outlined here in Picks and Pivots yesterday, we had two plans outlined – one with the Bucks chalk and one without. I bring that up because when the news broke and it forced us to pivot – honestly, we were ready.
Having that plan B outlined – some lineups already thought through and built – allows you to very quickly adjust without making panic moves. Personally, making the move to a Bucks/Pacers game stack with Jaylen Brown was an easy swap and it ended up resulting in a massive night of profit.
Tonight we have just six games on the slate but the tricky part for us is that the big news of the night sits in the late game of Nets/Blazers with James Harden questionable. Make no mistake – if last night was a Bucks slate because of Giannis being out – this slate is a Nets slate with Durant/Irving already ruled out and now a big Q tag around The Beard.
The one difference – and it is a big one – tonight we only have one game that starts as late as the Nets do and that is Sixers/Warriors. If we do not have news on Harden by 8 PM EST – understand that 4 of the 6 games will have tipped off and your ONLY pivot will be to Warriors and Sixers. With that said, understand that game is your Plan B and you need to be happy moving to that game as a pivot if Harden is ultimately ruled out.
Building Our Core
Regardless of the injury tag around James Harden ($11K) – the core tonight stars and ends with him and it is that simple. If Harden is in, he becomes lock city play numero uno with the Nets already down Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Over the last 15 games, no team in the NBA has a worse defense than the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland ranks bottom 5 in opposing FG%, giving up the highest 3P % to opposing players and ranks bottom 10 in opposing rebounds and assists per game. This is the definition of a smash spot for Harden and my lean is frankly, he plays, especially with active Vegas lines and totals out for this game early in the day.
If Harden plays – I am running it back with Damian Lillard ($10K) and going with arguably the two highest ceiling stars on this slate. With a game total of 236 that is 10+ points higher than any other on the slate, this is a spot where these two alpha guards will be going back and forth all night and I think you have a legit shot at 150 DK points just by pairing these stars together.
Anchoring to these two stars for me is a formality, but I also think it is just the starting point in a Stars and Scrubs build as I believe you can get a third star on DK without much heartburn. That decision likely comes down to Nikola Jokic ($10.7K) or Russell Westbrook ($10.8K).
I lean Joker in this spot for a few reasons and frankly, it has more to do with builds than anything else. With Dame and Harden having PG eligibility only, you become a bit more limited if you use Westbrook while Jokic allows you to lock in a 60-70 point star at your Center position and gives you added flexibility by keeping your Utility spot open.
Jokic is the front-runner for the MVP now with LeBron James sidelined and with 60+ DK points in 7 of his last 10 games, including 3 games with 70+, it is hard to argue there is a player with a more consistent ceiling than Nikola Jokic this season.
Anchoring to a three star build of this magnitude give you three players with legit 70+ DK point ceilings and as we have said over and over again this year, when the value is presented we anchor to the stars that set the cash line – every single time.
Finding the value
On this six-game slate, it really is not overly difficult to find value as injury news presents “new value” on a daily basis. The Lakers value as an example saw their prices tick up to where you have to think about it but with injury news in Brooklyn and a questionable tag for Lonzo Ball, there are other spots to punt plays we can find with ease.
Assuming Lonzo Ball sits, it would open up the starting role for Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4.4K) who has shown massive ceiling when given the chance to run with the starters. In four games this year with Lonzo out, NAW has put up 52, 32 and 27 DK points – meaning he has exceeded 6X value in 3 of the 4 games with slate-breaking scoring upside. With this game being at 7:30 PM EST tip, we should have this news early and I would make sure to slide him into your SG spot on DK so you lock in that role early and leave your G/F/UTIL for the late games to maximize flexibility.
The absence of Kyrie Irving tonight means big time value in Brooklyn against the worst defensive team in the NBA the last month – so sounds like the perfect time to unleash the punt plays.
With Landry Shamet also sidelined, this opens up even more fringe playing time for the Nets guards/wings and I want in! Bruce Brown ($4.2K) provides arguably the safest route of the low-tier plays from Brooklyn as we have seen him average 25 DK points in the previous two games Kyrie mised against the Pacers and Mavericks.
Timothe Luwauw-Cabarrot ($3K) and Tyler Johnson ($3.1K) become two really intriguing punt options for Brooklyn as both will be locked into major minutes. I wonder if we see the Nets move Jeff Green to the bench and slide TLC into the starting lineup tonight against a smaller Portland line-up – the Nets have gone small the last two times that Kyrie sat – opting to move move one of Jordan or Green to the second unit and if that is the path they take tonight, my guess is TLC moves into the starting unit while Tyler Johnson becomes the primary second team ball-handler.
Both Nets are in play for me tonight regardless of lineup decisions as the injury to Landry Shamet gives them a path to major bench minutes. I would be doing a disservice if I failed to mention Ghost’s favorite player – Nicolas Claxton ($3.9K) who just continues to shine as a FP/M producer. Even with Blake Griffin in the rotation, Clax had another monster performance, putting up 27 DK points in 26 minutes with 7/10 shooting from the floor.
Now, do not overlook the potential value on the other side of this game either. The last two games against Dallas, Portland ran a really tight core with essentially an 8-9 man rotation if you ignore the blowout run in the latest game.
Derrick Jones Jr. ($3.7K) has played 30 and 32 minutes in the previous games (non-blowouts) with a ceiling effort of 27 DK points against New Orleans included. If you give me 30 minutes under $4K against the Nets “defense” – I am in.
With CJ McCollum still working his way back from injury, it has allowed Rodney Hood ($3K) to carved out a role playing 20 minutes off the bench as the primary second unit ball-handler when Dame subs out. In the previous game versus Dallas (the one that was not a blowout), he actually got the entire 4th quarter run alongside the starters and dropped 21 DK points, which would put him at 7x value on his minimum price.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This is a great NBA DFS slate and one that I think lends itself to a Stars and Scrubs mentality. Assuming James Harden is in, that late night hammer of Dame/Beard is going to determine the cash line in my opinion and I plan to anchor my builds to it.
On a slate where we have so much star power on the injury list, we once again have multiple paths to value and that lends itself to a Stars and Scrubs build where I think getting in three of Harden, Dame, Joker or Westbrook is a core build that will set your cash line position while the punt value puts you in a position to make it all happen!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
