Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to Tuesday’s NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivotd as we break down what is now a 6 game slate on FanDuel and Draftkings with the postponement of the Pistons and Raptors game this evening.
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Before we jump into Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate – a big congrats to JMC for taking down Monday’s Win Daily DK contest and winning a Boogie Cousins Top Shot Moment. Make sure you get in to tonight’s FREE Win Daily NBA DFS contest and let’s see who can win it this evening!
With Detroit and Toronto being PPD due to COVID protocols, this is now a very tidy 6 game slate that is relatively front loaded with 3 of the 6 games kicking off between 7 and 7:30 PM EST.
From an injury perspective, the biggest news to watch is the status of Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler – as both players are questionable for their match-ups and either’s absence would become a major piece of “new news” we would have to react to.
By and large, this slate seems priced fairly and the lack of “unknown” injury news may make it tougher to find the value we are accustomed to – but there is one game in my opinion that is mispriced and looks like a GPP anchor for Picks and Pivots.
One Clear Core Game
Now Vegas totals in NBA DFS are not meant to be the be all and end all, but the reality is, they tell us a story of the slate and tonight the fact that we have four of the six games at 220 totals or below, screams we have some gross match-ups.
Now the Nuggets/Bucks game stands out with the marquee names and a high total but the pricing on Giannis/Joker leaves you really having to scramble on a slate without a ton of value. I also think with Jrue Holiday now back, the Bucks all seem too pricey for their roles so this may be a night where we drop down to our “stars” and get better bang for our buck.
That leads me to the Wizards/Grizzlies game – one with a slate leading 237 total, 1 point spread and the kind of high-pace game environment we love to target in NBA DFS. Over the last 10 games, no team is playing at faster pace than the Wizards, while Memphis is not far behind – ranking 7th in the NBA in that time frame.
In NBA DFS, when we find a game we like, the next “decision point” really is in which players we want to isolate. The beautiful part about the Wizards – they make the decision for you – it is basically an offense run entirely by two players – Russell Westbrook ($10.1K) and Bradley Beal ($9.7K).
Over the last two weeks, both Westbrook and Beal are sporting 30%+ usage rates, both ranking in the top 15 of NBA players in that metric and are the only two players in the top 15 of usage that happen to play for the same team
To summarize – if you want to use players from Washington – it pretty much starts and ends with Westbrook & Beal.
The one additional player I would use from Washington is Davis Bertans ($4.7K). Now Bertans is not going to start but frankly, that means the casual DFS player will be off him – the more important thing is that he gets almost the entire closing run with Washington alongside Westbrook and Beal.
Bertans rotations actually tend to make him the 2nd scoring option alongside either Beal or Westbrook as the star duo staggers their runs at the start of the first and second half. Then as you can see against Boston, Bertans gets the 4th quarter run and his three-point shooting volume gives him incredible GPP upside.
Now we may not have a ton of obvious value – but can we talk about the Memphis Grizzlies pricing tonight? Who needs punts when this team is just flat-out mispriced?
Facing a Wizards team that ranks among the bottom 5 in defensive rating and gives up the 2nd most PPG this season – and yet not a single Grizzlies player is above $7.2K on DraftKings?
Oh by the way – Memphis will also be short-handed – as Grayson Allen is OUT and Kyle Anderson is questionable with an illness. This is a team that played a 10 man rotation with Allen sidelined and if you take Anderson off the court – you are telling me I get a condensed 9 man rotation against the fastest pace team who also plays league-worst defense? Seriously – how many Grizzlies can I roster tonight?
Ja Morant ($7K) is laughably priced. Game log watch all you want and let the Houston blowout and 26 minutes skew your judgement if you’d like – but the reality is, we get a player with 20+ shot volume who has actually gone for 40+ DK points now in 3 of his last 8 games.
Same for Jonas Valanciunas ($7.2K). Do you think Moe Wagner is stopping him? Daniel Theis just dropped 37 DK on Washington, after KAT and Joker dropped 50+ – before that Ivica Zuba (35), Montrezl Harrell (44) and Enes Kanter (40) all hammered this interior. Seems like a trend we want to exploit!
With Allen out – we can go right back to a likely chalky value play in Desmond Bane ($3.4K) who just put up 33 DK points in 28 minutes and saw his price go up just $200. Do not ask questions.
If Kyle Anderson misses this game – I wonder if we see Brandon Clarke or Justise Winsloe enter the starting lineup. Clarke was the direct sub in for Anderson last game, putting up a double-double in just 21 minutes, and would get a massive run alongside JoVal if SloMo is unable to play.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
I say this all the time in Discord but in NBA DFS – pricing dictates plays – and tonight that is absolutely my gut instinct.
Seriously, why do you think DraftKings hates Memphis so much? Do you think they have something against BBQ?
If DraftKings wants to price Memphis like they are playing the 1990’s Chicago Bulls, so be it – I will be happy to attack a team with no player over $7.2K playing a bottom 5 defense in the NBA this season in the Washington Wizards. How many Grizzlies is too many tonight?
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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