Gary Gustafson 
Happy Tuesday my NBA DFS friends – after a wild Monday slate with injuries at every turn and non-stop value that resulted in a superstar night led by a slate-breaking Luka Doncic 84 DK point outing – we are back with a much more manageable three-game slate here on Tuesday.
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
I have to say – kudos to DraftKings tonight. We got the news yesterday that all of Kawhi Leoanrd, Paul George and Pat Beverley would sit and I was half expecting to open today’s slate and see all this obvious $3-$4K value in LA. However, DK went super aggressive with guys like Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Lou Williams who were all priced under $4K last game and they pushed them up to $6K+ price points tonight.
I absolutely love it. Seriously – a three-game slate with multiple Clippers chalk value would have been a snoozefest and it would have made every build nearly identical.
Now, you are actually going to have to think through your builds and make tough choices because the value – by and large – is not really even value.
The one spot this COULD change is in Atlanta with Trae Young and Clint Capela questionable to play. Rajon Rondo ($4.2K) drew the start on Saturday with Trae sidelined and racked up 23 DK points in 30 minutes and would become one of the best value plays on the slate.
With the Hawks on the front end of a B2B with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town tomorrow, I think it is fair to wonder if Trae/Capela take one more night to rest against the LAC B Squad.
Building Our Core:
Let’s just not over think this, shall we?
The Washington Wizards and Houston Rockets game is a DFS goldmine. A glistening beacon of fantasy goodness nestled in between the turd sandwich that is the Clippers bench versus a potential Hawks JV squad and the late-night “hammer” of Knicks-Jazz that will be played at a pace that would make the 1929 Princeton offense jealous.
The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA this season with a corresponding 2nd worst team defense rating which makes them the ideal spot to target for and against in DFS builds. Over the last 5 games, the Wizards rank 1st in pace while the new-look Rockets rank 4th – setting this game up to be a track meet with a side of REVENGE!
John Wall versus Russell Westbrook. Yes please.
With the Wizards being super short-handed due to COVID protocols – starting any and all builds with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook seems like the easiest path forward. The only “concern” would be that Westbrook is eased back in after playing just 25 minutes against the Spurs over the weekend.
With this game against his former team and the fact Westbrook had a day off, this feels like a spot where 30+ minutes is likely and unless we get some confirmation of a hard sub-30-minute cap – I am going to take the superstar raw points on a three-game slate.
What this also would do is take me off the fringe Wizards – if Westbrook is back playing normal minutes and commanding his usual usage – that means that the Jerome Robinson and Isaac Bonga’s of the world can get bent. Sure the minutes will be there but I am not going to play potential chalky Wizards forwards who will take their cue from PJ Tucker on the other side of this game and just chill in the corner for 40 minutes.
Speaking of Tucker – well more so speaking of his Rockets teammates – this looks like the perfect spot to stack up the Rockets trio of John Wall, Victor Oladipo and DeMarcus Cousins.
With Christian Wood doubtful, the price on Boogie at $6K is laughable. Seriously – good luck Robin Lopez and Alex Len.
This will be the first game that Wall/Oladipo share the backcourt together in Houston and if there was ever a time to take a shot on them, it’s this kind of fast-paced match-up against a league-worst defense. The pricing on both is fair enough where you can see profit potential assuming this game does what Vegas thinks it will. Once we get all the injury news, there is a likely path here with this game total is 20 points higher than either of the other two games.
Stack it up. Get Westbrook/Beal and run it back with Boogie/Wall/Dipo.
On 3 game slates, I want to target the raw point upside and this 5 man core, assuming no minutes limits, has that in spades.
Think about it – if Trae/Capela were to sit – the only other “stars” you have to worry about are Julius Randle, Donovan Mitchell, and maybe Rudy Gobert. So unless you are stacking that game – why not plant your flag with the Washington/Rockets stars in the best game environment of the slate?
Now – this core leaves you just under $3.3K for the last 3 spots in your build and the value really is not obvious – especially at super weak forward spots on DraftKings.
This is where you can mix and match some of the fringe bench value though to make it all work. As an example – Georges Niang ($3.2K) has averaged 16 DK points per game the last 6 games, putting him on pace to return 5X value at this price point.
Or you can flip to the Knicks side of that game – with Reggie Bullock already ruled out – it opens up a path to second team usage for players like Kevin Knox and Obi Toppin.
Both of these players have carved out roles on the Knicks second unit, with 15-18 minutes off the bench each last game against Portland in a similar spot with Bullock out. What you are really hoping for her however is to nail the game script – and on a three game slate, I think it is fine to try and play the blow out angle.
The Jazz are favored by 11 in this game and we have already seen this season where Knox (31 DK points against Charlotte) and Toppin ( 23 DK points against Boston) have hit 7-10x ceiling games in blow out scripts.
Even if the game stays close, these guys will get their minutes and at that point, you are hoping they hit their 5x and you “survive” but if the game script goes the right way – you are looking at two punts that could light up your DK lineup with 10x flames!
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate is super cut and dry to me – I am going to anchor to the Washington/Houston game and plant my flag in the best game environment with the superstar plays that can win me the slate.
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Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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