Gary Gustafson 
Happy Tuesday to all my NBA DFS family and friends, back for another Picks and Pivots breakdown after a wild Monday Night of DFS action where we saw winning scores push to over 430 points on DraftKings as it seemed every player on the slate had a massive night. If you put up a score of 320+ and did not cash – simply chalk it up to a crazy night, as most nights those scores are vying for tournament takedowns!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
This slate is pretty awesome – I have to say. Some days you wake up and open a slate and nothing really stands out – but today’s NBA DFS slate I think is one we can really get excited for.
First and foremost, we have just 6 games which is one of my favorite sized slates – big enough to be different but not a 10+ gamer where you feel the need to cover every possible combination.
Secondly, what I really like about this slate is that – we actually have the large majority of news already. We already know Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Kevin Durant are sidelined and the Nuggets and Thunder will be short-handed – but guess what – do too did DraftKings, and they really are going to make us think before blindly clicking in plays.
Oh, AD is out – so let’s just take the free square in Kyle Kuzma right? Well, DraftKings priced him to $7K – so yeah, you are going to have to work for your value today kids!
Therein lies the issue – the lack of “new news” means the $3K-$4K value extravaganza we saw as recent as yesterday is not available to us – so while there are tons of stars we want, at least early on, we may not have the value to go after multiple high-priced plays.
Where to pivot?
First and foremost – if you have not read Adam’s Cash Game Breakdown – go do it now. Seriously – before you read my article – go read his.
I say this because he nailed the high-end stars that are building blocks tonight. Absolutely nailed it.
What I love about working with this team is how we can compliment each other and our cash game versus GPP brains can take the same slate and see it completely differently.
There is one game from a cash perspective that Adam glossed over and for me as a GPP player, it was the one I honed in on right away – again, seeing the same slate from two different angles.
That game to me is the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans.
Before we get into the game – more holistically, what draws me to this game is the “lack of news”, the mid-range pricing and the clear and concise rotations.
What is “new” about either of these two teams? We look at the 12 teams on this slate and these two are one of the few that are just kind of playing the same crew on a nightly basis where there is no real mispricing or new news to react to.
From a pricing perspective, there are only two players over $8K on DraftKings, making this one of the better bargain games to build around when you consider the starting units on both teams are locked into consistent 30-minute roles.
Lastly, we have a Vegas game environment with a 230 total and more importantly, two of the worst defensive teams in the league in recent weeks. Over the last 10 games, the Pelicans rank as the 3rd worst defensive team while the Grizzlies sit at the 8th worst mark. So high total, condensed rotations, reasonable pricing, and two bad defenses – oh yeah, and a national TV game.
Time to stack baby.
Let’s start first with how to attack New Orleans. Over the last 10 games, the Pelicans are giving up the most three-pointers made per game at 17, allowing 41 3PA’s per game which is the third most while also giving up the most assists per game in the NBA.
Sounds like a good spot to attack with guards huh?
Ja Morant ($7.5K) is coming off three straight double-doubles as his minutes and assist totals have pushed higher each night as he comes back from his lengthy injury absence.
The three-pointers however are not going to come from Ja – they will however come from his backcourt mates – Dillon Brooks ($5.5K) and Grayson Allen ($4.7K).
With Bane and Melton sidelined, it has pushed Allen into the starting role and he has had two games now in his past three where he has shot 10+ three’s – if he gets that kind of volume, in this kind of matchup – oh boy, hello ceiling. Against the Lakers and Hornets, he put up 22 3PA and went for 30+ DK points which would far exceed 6X value at this price tag – I think that kind of game is easily attainable tonight and he is one of the best values on the board.
When these two teams played back on February 6th, it was Kyle Anderson ($6.4K) who took the most 3’s but Brooks was not far behind with 6 attempts. The issue that night – he went 0-6 from deep. However, Brooks is going to step into 30 minutes here tonight against a team that is getting gutted by three-point shooters lately and my guess is that most take the savings with Grayson and may overlook the exact same spot for Brooks.
Back to Kyle Anderson real quick – I hate paying the premium for Slo-Mo who is at the highest price point of the year but he is paying it off consistently. Anderson gives you multiple ways to pay off this tag as he racks up peripherals and as we saw against the Hornets and Pelicans, when he is shooting 3’s – hes a 40 point DK player which still gets you 6.3x on this price tag.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7.6K) is the perfect correlation play with the Grizzlies guards – a big man with 20/20 potential who dropped 36 DK points in just 24 minutes the last time they played. The minutes were low because it was his first game back in nearly a month but with 2 games of 30+ minutes this past week, if we are getting full run JoVal – this could be a 50+ ceiling game.
The Grizzlies have been every bit as bad defensively as the Pelicans – just “different bad.” They are just giving up an insane amount of efficiency to opposing shooters – allowing 50.1% from the floor which is 2nd highest in the league the last 10 games and 41.4% from deep which is 3rd most. Additionally they giving up the 2nd most turnovers per game – so while the pace is not what we saw last year with New Orleans – the spike in turnover is pushing more possessions and with it, more opportunity for fantasy points.
In the meeting a few days ago against Memphis we saw the usual suspects have strong games – as Brandon Ingram ($8.4K) dropped 58 DK points, with Zion Williamson ($8.2K) put up 45 and Lonzo Ball ($6.7K) followed with 41.
In that game, Ingram was a monster on the glass with 12 rebounds and 4 blocks to go along with it – which is what drove the ceiling game for BI on the wing.
While all three Pelicans noted above are in play again – I do want to point out my interest in Eric Bledsoe ($5.2K) and Steven Adams ($5.1K).
Bledsoe dropped 35 DK points of his own against Memphis, which would put him at nearly 7X value at this price tag tonight. Bledsoe was $6.1K the last time these teams met but a series of duds brought his price down substantially to $5.2K on DK. Now Bledsoe has played back to back games of 30+ minutes and gets the same spot he just crushed at a $1K discount – yes please!
Adams is not someone I have looked to use often this season, but this match-up against JoVal could be one where he pushes 30+ minutes to match the ole GIRTH FOR GIRTH. When given the minutes – 29+ – Adams has shown his ceiling recently with 30+ DK points now in 3 of his last 7 games and that kind of game would give you 6x value at this price tag tonight.
The one thing I will say – before you start clicking in names. THINK THROUGH CORRELATION.
If you are playing the Memphis 3 point barrage, don’t play all of Grayson, Brooks and Anderson – it is unlikely they all get there. If you play Adams with his rebounding upside – I would not use him with Zion as an example as the rebounds Adams gets, take away from Zion’s ceiling.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
What you see with this slate tonight is that we may have the stars, but the news has largely been baked into the pricing which makes finding the scrubs, a far more difficult path.
Instead, this slate leaves you an ignored and under-priced mid-range with a game like the Pelicans/Grizzlies that has a high total, condensed rotations and two of the worst defenses in the NBA the last 10 games. All that sets up for a game stack to build your GPP lineups around!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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