Gary Gustafson 
Happy Tuesday my NBA DFS fans – after a huge night of scores across the industry on Monday, we are back with another big slate to break down. The Win Daily crew and tools were absolutely spot on last night with our builds centered around a multi-star build (James Harden, Nikola Jokic and Caris LeVert) and the top value from our projections model all crushed (Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson and TLC!)
This article remains free through the end of 2020 as does the rest of our daily content offerings but that clock is ticking and after starting out this season hot – there is no better time to join the Win Daily Sports family. Hurry – just two more days left!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look
Tuesday night we have a monster 10 game slate, a huge step up from the 5-8 game slates we have gotten used to over the last few days and to be honest, these double-digit sized slates tend to be my least favorite because of the range of outcomes that exist.
Generally on slates with a player pool this large, my goal will be to narrow it down early on and try to have a condensed thought process when I start my build so that I am not casting my net too wide with every possible player combination.
The first place to start tonight is with the injury news as we have some big-time stars with injury designations.
First, Karl-Anthony Towns will be out for the next few games and that means Naz Reid ($5.1K) will continue to draw the start for Minnesota as they take on the Clippers.
If we look back at last season with KAT sidelined, Reid put up 1.1 FP/M and a 25% usage rate while averaging right around 30 DK points per start with 40 DK+ ceiling games on multiple occasions – meaning at only $5K, there is still massive profit potential on this price.
The big winner here for DFS though may be D’Angelo Russell ($7.6K) who led Minnesota last season with a 29% usage rate with KAT sidelined and put up 44 DK points per 36 minutes. At this price point tonight, that similar output has D-Russ at 5.6X already so I think much like Reid, there is substantial profit to be had on this price point.
Josh Okogie is also doubtful to play which means even more fringe value opens up and will likely push Jarret Culver ($4.5K) into the starting lineup, While we wait for all the news – my guess is by day’s end, this Minnesota value is popping across the models.
On the other side of this game, Kawhi Leonard is questionable due to a mouth laceration he suffered over the weekend and while the injury is likely not a “concern”, it is worth noting that the Clippers are on the front end of a B2B with another game Wednesday so this could be a “load management” spot the Clippers manage through and let Kawhi have another day to deal.
The Kawhi news is big for a variety of reason – first, if he sits, it pushes Paul George ($8.5K) and Lou Williams ($5.1K) into elite play status as with Kawhi sidelined last season, George (40% usage rate and 1.5 FP.M) and LouWill (35% and 1.3 FP/M) were both high ceiling plays. It would also take an elite defender off the court for LAC which would make this game stack much more palatable running it back with the undermanned TWolves.
Much like I mentioned with Culver on the Minnesota side, Nicolas Batum ($4.5K) could be a solid mid-range value in this game stack if Kawhi is out. We saw it two games ago against Denver where Batum played 36 minutes and racked up a 37 DK point double-double. Sometimes – locking in those 30-minute roles and taking the “easy path” to value makes all the difference.
If Kawhi ends up playing, this game could end up being one we cross off entirely but if he is out, it could be a building block – welcome to NBA DFS life.
Lastly, the Miami Heat will likely be without Jimmy Butler tonight as they take on the Milwaukee Bucks. Like the other spots mentioned, any time you take a high usage star off the court, it presents significant value for the remaining players and the Heat, by and large, are priced very fairly considering with only Bam Adebayo ($8K) above $6K on DK.
Bam may seem like the big winner last year with Butler off the court, putting up 1.3 FP/M but he did so at only a 22% usage rate which was just a marginal increase on his metrics with Butler on the court. Rather than pay the premium for BAM, it may be better served to mix and match the $5K guards like Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro who put up 40 and 34 DK points per 36 last year with General Soreness sidelined.
Building Our Core:
If there is one message I have tried to hammer home early this NBA DFS season – it is that we need to anchor to stars and use the under-priced value in early season mis-pricing to make it all work – tonight is no differet.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10.8K) has yet to have a true ceiling game, being held under 60 DK points in each of his first three games but tonight, I think we could see him reach his ceiling. Without Jimmy Butler on the floor, the Heat defense takes a significant hit – and we only need to look back to last season to see what a Butler-less Heat team could mean for Giannis.
In their first meeting last season, Miami was without Butler and Giannis proceeded to drop a 29 point, 17 rebounds, 9 assist gem on his way to 73 DK points. Now compare that to the next game they played where Butler was on the floor and held Giannis to 40 DK points on 30% shooting. No Butler means all the Giannis!
With Miami being short-handed – Goran Dragic ($5.9K) and Tyler Herro ($5.8K) are my preferred mid-range run backs but I can make the case easily for Bam Adebayo ($8K) as well after seeing what Julius Randle just did to this Bucks interior (29/14/7 on his way to 61 DK points).
This game stack is also a great GPP target in my opinion because of the tight rotations and mid-range pricing. You can basically get all the usage and fantasy production on Milwaukee from two guys in Giannis and Khris Middleton ($7.7K) who have 35% and 26% usage rates respectively while both putting up 50+ DK points per 36 minutes.
Now go ahead and run it back with the Heat core of Bam, Dragic and Herro and you still have $4K per player for the last few spots in. Love this spot for game stacks!
The next part of my core, as mentioned above is really TBD as we wait on Kawhi news. If Kawhi is OUT – I want PG13/Lou Williams and you can run it back with D-Russ/Naz. If Kawhi is IN – this game is likely a cross off.
Lastly – we have to watch the value and this is where our projections model is key as it has been LIGHTS OUT, projecting the top PP/$ plays like TLC and PlumDogg last night.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate is largely a wait and see as the Kawhi Leonard news really will dictate how I build. At first glance, though this slate is going to be one where the “absence” of stars will drive massive value to their teammates and I think that is where you need to start your builds today in places like Miami, Minnesota, and potentially LAC.
The next piece is going to be digging through the value – finding the punts that make the pay up for Giannis an easy lock and load – this is where our Discord can help you really think through the news as it breaks and it is where I will be all day long!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
