Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a solid five-game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:30 PM EST just a few hours after the NBA Trade Deadline at 3 PM EST.
If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Looking over this five game NBA DFS slate, while the NBA Trade Deadline looms large with late breaking news that could change the slate entirely, I am really intrigued with the builds we can make tonight. We have some top-end star power and a whole lot of value (with likely more to come) and that lends itself to Stars and Scrubs type builds.
Now, I know what you will say – we got burned by that last night in a major way but guess what – I DON’T CARE. Last night we saw all of Jokic, Giannis and Luka have floor games on the same night – you want to bet on all the stars flopping on the same night? Go for it – I will play the elite talent every single time, especially on a short slate where raw points matter and we have the value to make it all work.
The early two games on this slate are really where my interest lies – as we have the Wizards/Knicks and Heat/Blazers as the first two games to tip-off.
While the Wizards/Knicks has the star power in Westbrook, Beal and Randle – I would argue that the Heat/Blazers game has the same level of star power for far more efficient pricing.
Listen, there is literally not a worse defense in the NBA than Portland right now. They rank dead last over the last 10 games in defensive rating and FG% allowed, while ranking bottom five in points allowed, 3P% allowed, rebounds allowed and assists allowed.
All that aligns for ceiling games for far too cheap studs like Jimmy Butler ($9K) and Bam Adebayo ($8K). The added fact that Miami could continue to be short-handed with both Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley listed as questionable.
This has led to a really tight rotation and added run for guards like Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro – all of whom are priced in the $4K-$5K range on DK tonight. With the idea that Jimmy Butler is a priority plays for me – correlation matters – and no player has a better correlation with this Miami star than Tyler Herro ($5.4K).
The fact that I have SO much interest in the Miami side of this game leads me to have Portland run back – and while I like guys like Westbrook or Randle, the only way my Heat players are hitting ceiling is if Damian Lillard ($10K) is keeping this game close.
We have seen the floor for Dame more recently and I think most will attribute that downturn with the uptick in minutes for CJ McCollum which is a fair critique. However, the volume is absolutely still there for Dame – including a whopping 14 3PA versus the Nets last game. If Dame does not shoot 29% – he smashes – and considering he was 5-6% owned last slate, I think the masses are simply unwilling to play him. With easy pivots in the NY/Washington game – I am telling you right now, if Dame is single digit owned again tonight – I am LOADING UP. You do not get GPP difference makers of this ceiling level at single digit ownership very often.
The wild card in this game is Enes Kanter ($6.6K). After doing essentially nothing the last week, he exploded for a 55 DK point outing against Brooklyn on the back of 19 points and 19 rebounds. Now, this match-up against Miami is clearly not the same but the presence of Adebayo on the other side of this game should keep Kanter on the floor for extended run. Listen the floor is sub 20 DK points for Kanter – but he also has gone for 50+ DK points now twice in his last 10 games so we know the ceiling is through the roof and he makes for the ideal correlation play in a game stack alongside Dame.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate is really interesting because we have two games to tip-off the slate which have the star power I think we need to anchor to and so I would argue front-loaded builds are the best way to attack this slate.
We also have a ton of value as Miami is largely under-priced, the Portland bench could once again be without Simons/Little and in Philly we could see both Seth Curry AND Danny Green sit out.
All that value means anchoring to a 3 star build in my mind.
You can opt to go with a Westbrook/Beal/Randle trio that leaves you $4K per player for the rest of your build or you can go with a Butler/Bam/Dame which leaves $4.6K per player for the rest of your build. Stars win slates – and tonight these star-packed trios are the way to the cash line.
In either case, you are anchoring to star power with more than enough value to make it work and that is the formula for me that has been successful far more often than not – tonight, I go right back to it.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
