Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a solid six-game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:00PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We get a beautiful looking six game NBA DFS slate here tonight which kicks off at 7 PM EST and is essentially split with 3 games starting by 7:30 PM EST and then a trio of late night hammers which kick off at 10 PM EST. This “split schedule” gives us the chance to either front or backload or builds with ample late swap opportunity as well for those who choose to play the late-night hammer trio.
As it does every night for me in GPP play – the slate starts with the stars and this slate is going to look very similar to Tuesday with Damian Lillard($11K) front and center.
Let’s take a look back at what I wrote on Tuesday – shall we?
We have harped on this for weeks now, but the Pelicans continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking among the bottom 5 in team defense over the last 10 and 15 game sample size. Over that 15 game sample size, they are giving up the 4th highest FG% allowed, 2nd highest 3P % allowed, 2nd most 3PM per game and rank bottom 5 in assists and blocks allowed per game.
In summary – their defense is not super good.
Enter Damian Lillard – who over the last 15 games has the most three-point attempts of any player in the league and ranks 4th among qualified starters in usage rate at 34%. If you remember back to February 17th, the last time these two teams played – we were all over Dame in this spot because of the Pelicans inability to guard the perimeter and their penchant for bleeding points to opposing PG’s.
As Statmuse so beautifully illustrates – we were right to be on that spot then and we are right to be on it again tonight.
It is almost like that write up could have predicted what happened on Tuesday when Dame went for 75 DK points including hitting 6 for 13 from deep on his way to 50 real-life points.
That now makes two match-ups in the last month against New Orleans where Dame has hit for 79 and 75 DK points. Not sure what else you need to see from him in this match-up to tell you he is a lock play – but he was just 10-15% owned on Tuesday and boy, do I hope people continue to outthink themselves tonight. Lock city Dame once again.
If I had to guess where the ownership flows tonight – my assumption is going to be Utah/Washington. Everyone loves to attack Washington, Utah is down Mike Conley so we get some value and the Jazz are largely under-priced so I get it – but the reality is, Washington is getting better defensively. Over the last 15 games they are squarely in the middle of the pack in terms of team defense after being a bottom feeder nearly all year so maybe, just maybe, this is not the same terrible defense we have attacked all year?
Meanwhile, back in Portland – we get a Blazers/Pelicans game that features two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA no matter what time period you carve out. Season long you ask? They rank 2nd and 3rd worst. Over the last 15 games you want to see the trend? New Orleans ranks 5th worst while Portland is the worst team in the NBA.
So two terrible defenses, in a game with a 240+ total that is 10+ points higher than any other game and we aren’t just loading up here why?
Zion Williamson ($8.9K) has been the ceiling play for the Pelicans in both previous meetings with Portland, putting up 54 and 47 DK points in those two outings and it is no surprise considering Portland has nobody to match-up with a player like Zion inside.
Lonzo Ball ($6.9K) is fresh off a 46 DK performance of his own, good for well over 6X value and his price went up …. $100. Cool.
Brandon Ingram ($8.1K) is really intriguing at an ugly SF position for this very simple fact – we get a player who led the team with 22 FGA against the worst defense in the NBA the last 3+ weeks. The volume/match-up could not be better and the price point offers you some serious profit potential.
The value plays on New Orleans also stand out as we get two “punts” with Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4.2K) and Jaxson Hayes ($3.2K). NAW went off for 33 DK points in this match-up on Tuesday, playing 25 minutes off the bench with 7 minutes of that coming in the 4th quarter. We harp on this all the time with punts and their minutes – if we can find guys that have clear rotations and they get close out run – we want in.
Hayes is operating as the direct sub for Steven Adams – the lone big off the bench and his rotations and minutes are consistent as a result. Hayes has now played 19, 20 and 24 minutes in his last three games with nearly identical rotations as the second unit big man. Sure last game he managed just 11 DK points but the two games prior – 26 and 24 DK points. Hayes struggled with 4 fouls against Portland, but if he can get back in a similar groove to the prior two games – this is a punt with 8X upside.
The Portland side outside of Dame is a little tougher to navigate with CJ McCollum ($7.4K) back on the court. McCollum returned on Tuesday and actually played 26 minutes with very clear “spurts” – playing 7 minutes to open each quarter and then resting.
While McCollum does become a bit interesting as his minutes creep up, I think what it likely does for most – is keeps them off the fringe mid-range but that may be a mistake.
If we look at Portland’s rotations from last game via Popcorn Machine – a few things jump out to me.
In the second half of that game, Portland essentially matched NO – as Steven Adams came out, they matched by taking out Enes Kanter. In the fourth quarter of that game, they basically ran a starting unit of Dame, Robert Covington, Carmelo Anthony, and Gary Trent Jr.
If you look at the correlations for Portland – Dame has strong positive correlations with all three of those players and so I think mixing and matching those secondary pieces around Dame in a game stack becomes an ideal way to get exposure to this game and an extremely tight rotation.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Night after night, we focus Picks and Pivots on the star power and the value to get us a “path to 300” – and I think tonight that path runs straight through the New Orleans and Portland match-up.
It is not often we get a game featuring two of the bottom three defensive teams in the NBA, with the highest Vegas total on the board, the star power to win us a slate in Damian Lillard, and the recent game logs in this exact match-up to help us identify trends and isolate plays. We have that tonight – and I think we need to capitalize on it in a big way.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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