Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back my friends to some Thursday NBA DFS Picks and Pivots as we put aside the massive 11 game slate from Wednesday and move on to a solid five game slate tonight on DraftKings and FanDuel. Tonight’s slate starts at 7:30 PM EST so we get an extra 30 minutes of tinker time before lock and we have 3 of the 5 games tonight with 10 PM EST starts – so all the late night hammers!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
With a manageable five game slate on tap tonight, these are the slates I really think we can pad our bankroll and win big and with some elite spots to attack, I am REALLY excited for this slate tonight and it all starts with Brooklyn/Philadelphia.
This game checks all the 2Lock GPP boxes – high total (225), close spread (2) and the fastest projected pace on the slate and all that sweet sweet star power that will dictate the cash line on DraftKings once again!
Listen, if you guys have been reading Picks and Pivots this year – you know that I have been all over the Nets every game and while the staff here at Win Daily Sports is all in lockstep (insert Ghost’s Winnie the Pooh gif), it appears the industry at large is not willing to back this Brooklyn offense quite yet even with Kevin Durant and Spencer Dinwiddie sidelined.
Two games ago we started this article with the simple concept – Durant and Dinwiddie are out and Kyrie Irving is TOO CHEAP. I am not going to simply copy and paste that day’s paragraph but – yeah, like the same thing today dudes and dudettes.
Kyrie Irving ($9.6K) put up 51 DK points despite sitting the entire 4th quarter and his price only went up $300? Cool. The best part is – PEOPLE STILL WON’T PLAY HIM. Kyrie was 40% owned in GPP’s on Tuesday which means 60% of people got lucky as a mother trucker with the blowout because Kyrie was on his way to a 70+ DK point night easy. Don’t get cute people…LOCK HIM IN TONIGHT!
Rinse and repeat – Caris LeVert ($6.8K) was sub 30% owned on Tuesday in tournaments, and all he did was put up close to 40 DK points in limited minutes while sporting an absurd 41.4% usage rate in that game running the second unit.
The fact you can get a superstar level usage player under $7K is insane to me and the best part is – PEOPLE STILL WON”T PLAY HIM! LOCK BUTTON #2.
Much like I argued on Tuesday, I think building a mini-game stack here tonight makes all the sense and the Sixers run back provides some serious ceiling!
Joel Embiid ($9.5K) is one of the highest ceiling plays on this slate and one of the highest raw projected point players in our model to start the day. Embiid will get a strong match-up against Jarrett Allen/DeAndre Jordan inside – one he demolished for 69.5 DK points in his only meeting with Brooklyn last season.
With Brooklyn running at the 5th fastest pace this season and the Sixers right behind them at 6th, this game has serious shootout potential and if the game turns into an up and down affair, I love the idea of running BOTH Ben Simmons ($8.9K) and Seth Curry ($5.5K) who will be able to space the floor in an up-tempo battle.
The correlation right now between Embiid-Curry is off the charts high, leading the team by more than twice the correlation of any other pairing and so I would put Curry ahead of Simmons if forced to choose.
I think if you opt to fade Simmons at $8.9K on DK, you can make the argument to slide down to Tobias Harris ($7.5K) who gets the benefit of no Durant on the wing to defend him now. Also, we tend to chase the “new value” – but do not overlook Danny Green ($3.7K) who has 10 FGA in back to back games now, playing 27 minutes a piece in those games while putting up 30 FP/G and has now gone for 22 + in 3 straight games. Sometimes the boring value is the right value.
If you haven’t followed – I love this game – LOVE IT – and I plan on stacking the sweet sassy molassy out of it at the core of my build.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Tonight looks incredibly straightforward to me – much like it did on Tuesday frankly. We have one game in the Nets/Sixers that has the fast-paced star-studded core that is under-priced and you can stack without issue.
The other games offer you slower paces, lower totals and blowout risk – sure the Nets could shoot 86% again and the game could be over by halftime like it was against the Jazz, but I am willing to roll the dice here tonight and bring this game stack back.
Today – we watch the news – let others make the mistake of fading the players we believe are at our core and then sit back and watch that money roll in!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
