Gary Gustafson 
Happy Thursday my NBA DFS friends – after a monster Wednesday slate we turn our sights to a solid 4 game Main Slate here with some stars, some scrubs, and a whole lot of ways to attack our builds on DraftKings and FanDuel. We get an extra 30 minutes to lock tonight with this slate kicking off at 7:30 PM EST – so let’s get started!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this four-game Main Slate we have a ton of injury news we know already – specifically that the Clippers trip of Kawhi, PG13, and PatBev are all out again but we also have big-time news to watch as it relates to the status of Devin Booker and basically the entire Miami Heat roster (again).
It does sound like Devin Booker is likely to return for the Suns and to me, this is the biggest piece of news I am waiting on as it would completely change how we attack the late-night hammer of Warriors-Suns.
Building My Core & Taking a Stand!
On short slates, like we have today, star power drives cash lines. It is just that simple. Looking back at the winning scores two nights ago on a similar three-game slate, winning GPP builds had 3-star cores of Trae Young, Rudy Gobert, and Boogie Cousins who all put up 50+ DK points. Anchoring to those stars is the key here again tonight in my opinion.
So tonight, the first question you have to ask yourself is which stars you are paying for.
The first player that you have to make a decision on is Damian Lillard ($10.6K). This is a great game environment for Dame, we know he gets all the usage with McCollum and Covington out again but I think it is fair to question whether the price is “worth” the investment.
In the four games since McCollum has been sidelined, Dame has put up 50, 50, 57 and 60 DK points – strong, but not once returning the type of must have value that his near $11K price tag would require.
When you take that into the context of this slate, one without a ton of obvious punt value, I wonder if paying the premium for Dame at the cost of the rest of your roster is optimal.
Instead, one way to attack this Portland side would be to fade Dame – getting your exposure with cheaper plays like Rodney Hood ($4.3K) and Carmelo Anthony ($5.6K) – in the hopes that they have ceiling scoring nights which in turn would mean that Dame would not.
The other side of this game with Houston has the star power but, maybe too many cooks in the kitchen. With Christian Wood coming back and now John Wall and Victor Oladipo both running the backcourt – this once barren value-heavy Rockets team may be – overpriced?
I know the Portland-Houston game will be a popular target tonight but if you look at the pricing as it relates to DFS – I think taking a stand and fading this game and hoping that the multitude of players available tonight with only one ball in play – means far more floor performances than ceilings.
Time to Pivot
Now if I am pivoting off this game, we still need star power to minimally match that game if it does hit. Sorry Clippers/Miami but I said star power – so we will go ahead and reserve you for the value fill-ins!
This leads me to the Suns/Warriors – a game that has multiple stars we can anchor to with ceiling potential.
Steph Curry ($9.7K) gets the same match-up we just saw Shai Gilgeous Alexander put up 49 DK points against last night, or Jamal Murray who put up 44 and 46 against in the previous games. The volume for Steph remains sky high especially behind the arc as he is the only player in the NBA averaging double-digit 3PA over his last five games. If Curry gets hot – he wins you the slate – its just that simple. I will take him at a $1K discount over Dame tonight.
The Suns choices hinge a bit on the status of Devin Booker ($8.3K) but I think building early in the day with him at your G spot on DK is ideal because if he is ruled out, you can simply pivot to Chris Paul ($8K) for a few hundred less. Using DraftKings position flexibility on a small slate like this could be a huge advantage if we do not have news before lock – so put Booker at your G spot since he is the more expensive player and if we get late news – you have the easy pivot and the salary to make it work.
I was all over DeAndre Ayton ($7.8K) early yesterday but we talked about in Discord that if Al Horford was in for OKC, it made sense to move off him. Well tonight, we have no such worries on the Golden State side as the Looney/Wiseman duo is primed to be taken for a ride here.
Take a look at what recent Centers have done to Golden State – Naz Reid (44 DK points), Mitchell Robinson (36), Trez Harrell (33) and what is interesting is that none of them played more than 28 minutes. In fact the only Center to play over 30 minutes against the Dubs the last two weeks was Nikole Jokic, who dropped a 65 DK point triple double.
Ayton has played 35 minutes now in five straight and 7 of his last 8 games and so if we are seeing Centers smash on a PP/M basis with sub 30 minute run – why would we not take the 35 minutes of Ayton in the same match-up?
A Curry/Ayton and either CP3/Booker core mini stack in this late night game will be at the heart of my builds today and has the kind of upside to match any other 3-some you can build around.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Starting my builds tonight with the core above leaves me with a ton of flexibility as I would have $4.8K per player for the rest of my build and so the decision then becomes do you go more balanced OR can you jam in one more stud.
My dude Adam Strangis in his Core 4 today – gave you a guy I think you simply need to add to the core I outlined above and his write up is spot on. Anthony Davis ($8.9K) is just too cheap and I think we have to price enforce him on DK tonight – it is that simple. Add him to my core above – you have four stars and roughly $4K per player for the rest of your build.
Next step – head to our custom projections, lock in that value and let’s start cashing!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
