Gary Gustafson 
For the second straight night we saw massive NBA DFS scores across the industry as the combination of minimum priced value and ceiling games from the slate’s biggest stars have pushed scores into the 400 range.
A huge congrats to all the Win Daily Sports NBA members dropping screenshots in our NBA Discord last night as we had multiple members post their biggest scores of the NBA season and my friends – we are JUST getting started!
This beauty from “RLS021” took the top 4 values in our model and stacked the 4 man stud combo of Luka, Durant, Fox, and Dame. You love to see it!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Normally we start this section with the stars but I think for this 5 game NBA DFS slate on Thursday we need to work backwards and recognize the amount of value we will have tonight is much like we have seen the previous two slates.
Right off the bat, we have a similar situation with the Miami Heat as we had two nights ago as they take on the Sixers again with just an 8 man rotation. No Butler, Bam, Dragic etc. In fact, the Heat are in a similar spot where they need one of Meyers Leonard OR Gabe Vincent to shake off their injury tag and play just so they can have the required eight players.
The Houston Rockets may not be dealing with COVID protocols en masse, but are dealing with a virus of their own – as they traded away disgruntled star James Harden on Wednesday and tonight will play a game against the Spurs without John Wall and Danuel House.
Assuming Miami is able to play again, the Heat and Rockets become the keys to this slate as a result of all the value. When you open up our Custom Projections today and watch them refresh throughout the day – you are going to see tons of Miami and Houston.
I am not going to sit here and list off all the values, but instead, reiterate the importance of using that value in your NBA DFS builds. Two nights ago using the Miami Heat value was a pre-requisite to cashing and last night we saw the top three PP/$ values in our model – DeAndre Jordan, JJ Redick and Nickeil Alexander-Walker ALL in the winning $100,000 DK GPP lineup.
We cannot always assume “past result guarantee future success” but what these last two NBA DFS slates have told us more than anything – when we have SO many value punts available to us, we need to utilize them. This is not as simple as just 1-2 guys being value – we are seeing 10-20 6-7x values a night in the models as we approach lock and the reality is, some combination of them is hitting every single night and if you don’t have them – well then you don’t have the high ceiling stars that the values allow you to afford and you are likely sitting outside of the cash line staring in.
Building Our Core
So let’s assume tonight that your builds minimally will have 2-3 sub $4K punts with some combination of Heat/Rockets and “other value” that opens up throughout the day.
What that means is we have room to afford multiple studs and so building that core of high ceiling stars is the vital second step after using the “easy value.”
Welcome to the Golden State/Denver game my friends – stop #1 on our superstar train!
Golden State plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA so Denver will see a similar pace up match-up as they did the last time out against Brooklyn and the Warriors meanwhile get the benefit of taking on a Nuggets team that ranks among the five worst teams in defense rating and will be without a key individual defender tonight in Gary Harris.
Nikola Jokic ($11K)is the most expensive player on the slate and frankly, the salary becomes largely meaningless with the amount of value that we have to make him a core play. In a similar pace up spot against Brooklyn, we saw Big Honey drop 67 DK points on a 23/11/8 line with 7 steals. Do you think James Wiseman is going to slow him down? Yeah, me neither.
The player that really interests me tonight on Denver though is Jamal Murray ($6.9K). Yes, the same Jamal Murray who has failed to top 30 DK points now in three straight games and four of his last five. Game log watchers kick rocks – school is in session.
Murray has superstar talent and DFS slate-breaking upside we all witnessed in the bubble last year but a slow start has really taken people off him and brought his price down to its lowest level.
The issue with Murray this season has been his sharp decline in usage as his usage rate has dropped 2% from last year, down to just 23%. With both Gary Harris AND Michael Porter Jr. sidelined, you would think the usage would flow to Murray more, and finally against Brooklyn – it did – as he sported a 31% usage and put up a whopping TWENTY shot attempts.
The 27.5K DK points that followed are where some may stop and move on – but I think the usage and volume here tells you that the DFS output is not far off and so buying low is the right GPP move. Over the last two weeks, opposing point guards have gone for 40+ DK points five times against Golden State with Dame (x2), Kyle Lowry, De’Aaron Fox and Aaron Holiday just 2 days ago.
In every single case, you are seeing the peripherals spike with these 5 PG’s averaging 7.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. The upside in this game environment is massive and the recent run of players in the same match-up should give us confidence to go heavy on Murray who will likely be a forgotten commodity that could be a big GPP difference maker.
On the other side of this game, the obvious run back is Steph Curry ($9.7K) – another luxury spend that is easy to afford but the mini-stack partner I have my eye on here is a far too cheap Draymond Green ($5.4K).
When mini-stacking we always have to think through correlation and if Chef Curry is my top play, I do not want to pair him with similarly scoring dependent plays like Andrew Wiggins or Kelly Oubre. Instead, using Green who relies heavily on peripherals gives you a path for both players to hit their ceilings without capping the other’s upside.
Draymond has played 30+ minutes now in 3 of his last 4 games with 30 and 39 DK points in his last two outings as a result of his rebounds, assists and blocks/steals. With this game being projected as one of the fastest pace games on the slate, and the other Warriors bigs having to deal with Nikola Jokic – we could see a scenario where guys like Wiseman are pulled away from the basket to defend Joker on the pick and roll which would leave Draymond inside to get the lion’s share of the rebounds.
Starting your build tonight with a Joker/Jamal – Curry/Draymond mini stack will leave you over $4.2K per player for the rest of your build which is an easy path considering the context of the slate.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate is all about the value and the Stars and Scrubs approach that inherently follows. That build has been a consistent winner all season on Draftkings and especially over the last two nights and the context of this slate, in my mind, dictates the path as a core strategy once again.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
