Gary Gustafson 
Happy Thursday my NBA DFS friends – after a 10 game slate where we saw the OKC value chalk drive DFS scores, we come back to a more manageable 5 game slate and one where we could see a ton of injury news open up chalk-tastic value.
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We only have 10 teams in our NBA DFS player pool on Thursday but we have a ton of high-end player injury news on the tail end of back to backs for a handful of teams that could drive some serious value our way – and frankly, that will dictate how this slate is built.
Damian Lillard is questionable and we have Kristaps Porzingis/Victor Olapido unlikely to play on the B2B. To have that much star power potentially on the bench, it is going to open up a massive amount of value that will make it easier to pay for our studs.
Also, if Dame does sit – how will that impact the stars in Philadelphia with their own B2B set tonight?
Anchoring to the Stars!
Luka Doncic ($10.9K) becomes arguably the top star to pay for on the slate when/if we get confirmation that KP is managing his load. We have a massive data set to pull from in this case where Luka has a near 40% usage rate over the last two seasons in 1400 minutes when Porzingis is out and you get the added boost of a match-up against a Warriors squad playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season.
Now the last two games that KP has sat, Luka has actually been more floor than ceiling – with 49 and 45 DK points against the Suns and Rockets – DFS outputs that frankly would be a massive disappointment if you are paying a near $11K premium. However, take that data set back to the four previous games KP missed and you see the demonstrated ceiling – 57, 59, 72, and 79 DK points.
In the 10 games that Porzingis has missed this year, it is interesting to note that Luka has been held under 50 DK points in 6 of the 10 so the simplistic logic of KP out equals Luka lock, really has not been the case.
The flip side here is that we have to look at Luka and these stars in the context of the slate. First and foremost, if we get the value that we expect – that value dictates that we have the salary flexibility to afford Luka. Secondly, that 70-80 DK point ceiling that Luka has shown this year – that is the kind of raw point ceiling you simply need to have on a short slate.
In this same game, we get a National TV match-up with Luka versus Steph Curry ($9.8K).
Curry is the entirety of the Warriors offense this year and he gets to take the stage tonight against a Dallas team that is giving up the 3rd highest opponent 3P% over the last 10 games at 40.4%. No player in the NBA is putting up more 3PA per game than Chef Curry this season – so let’s see, national TV with a high volume three-point shooter against a team that cannot defend it – hello ceiling game!
The final superstar in this top tier that I would consider is Nikola Jokic ($11K).
Now the recent history against the Lakers is not going to be a strong selling point as he has been held under 40 DK points in 3 of his 4 meetings against the Lakers the last two seasons with a 53 DK point outing being his “ceiling.”
However, much like with Luka – I think the slate will dictate how The Joker becomes a priority. From a raw points perspective, it is hard to argue with a player who has gone for 60+ in 7 of his last 10 games and eclipsed 70 DK points in two of those meetings (both against Utah).
I am a firm believer in raw points being a priority on small slates like this and if the value is there to jam in the stars – I think you are almost forced into outlining this path.
A Luka-Curry-Joker build is going to leave you around $3.7K per player for the rest of your build – a spot that becomes quite doable IF the injury news breaks as we are hoping. You are also anchoring to a three-man core that has a legitimate chance to get you 200 DK points on their own. The question then becomes can you get 100-150 DK points from the “Scrub 5” – or 20-30 DK points per player to make this a winnable NBA DFS build?
Give me all the value!
The starting point for value tonight is going to be in Portland – if we get the news that Damian Lillard will sit. This is the path in my mind where taking the obvious value and pairing it with the high-priced stars like Luka/Joker becomes a core building block.
Portland is already without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, will be without Nassir Little tonight and Derrick Jones Jr. is questionable. With that crew out last game, Portland played an 8 man rotation – which included Dame for nearly 40 minutes of court time – take him off, and sheesh – it is value city.
Rodney Hood ($3.7K) received the start last game with Litte/DJJ out and played 35 minutes, shot the ball 12 time and racked up 22 DK points which puts him right at 6x value since his priced moved all of $200. If Jones Jr. is out again – Hood becomes an easy plug and play value.
The big winner if Dame were to sit would be Anfernee Simons ($4.6K) who would get the start at PG and get all the run he could handle against the Sixers. We have seen Simons start a hand full of times the last two years and he has put up 25-26 DK points in those stars but here is a big difference – those spot starts have always come in place of one of Dame/CJ. Tonight it would be a potential start with BOTH stars out – the ceiling would simply be too high for us to pass on tonight if Dame is out and he would be a lock button mid-range value.
Lastly – and my man Adam Strangis nailed this in his Cash Game Breakdown ($) today – is the role Juan Toscano Anderson ($3.5K) will play now with both Kevon Looney AND James Wiseman sidelined. As Adam pointed out “JTA was the direct sub for Looney and played 18 of the 26 possible minutes after Looney left the game with an injury.”
One additional play from Golden State that could give us elite value is Kent Bazemore ($3.3K). Similar to JTA – Bazemore played 12 of the second half 24 minutes with Looney sidelined and actually closed the 4th alongside JTA, Curry, Wiggins and Draymond.
If you are following along – here is what we got kids.
Lock in Luka, Joker and Chef Curry. The click in the values that would/could have starters minutes path tonight – and you still have around $3.5K per player for those last two spots.
When the value is this obvious – I do not try and get cute – I play the value that allows me to get the high ceiling stars that win you the slate. Every. Single. Time.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Stars. Scrubs.
Rinse. Repeat.
This slate has the potential to be very clear and obviously it is injury dependent – the path opens up early here for this kind of build that has massive GPP appeal.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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