Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back my NBA DFS friends, as we have a solid 5 game slate here which kicks off at 7:30 PM EST on Thursday. We have an interesting slate here tonight and one that could become interesting for GPP’s as we may get some clear chalk plays and builds as a result. Let’s dive in!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this five-game slate, the first thing that jumped out to me was the potential for value in Orlando with both Evan Fournier and Cole Anthony listed as questionable tonight. For a team already missing Aaron Gordon, the Magic could be the late-night value hammer tonight.
What this could lead to is a night where guys like Frank Mason III, James Ennis, and Dwayne Bacon become chalk value that allows you to pay up for all the studs you want – insert Embiid, Curry, Vuc, and Dame – pick your guys and move on.
Now playing the chalk value does not always feel fun, but sometimes the simple path works and last night was a perfect example, especially as you moved up in the higher dollar Single Entry GPP’s on DraftKings.
Below is the winning entry in the $100 Single Entry GPP with $5K to first. These are smaller field tournaments with higher buy-ins and as such, they tend to play more “cash game” style – but it works.
Look at the winning build – three OKC starters, with the 3 man Win Daily core we outlined yesterday (Sabonis, Middleton, and Brogdon). Nothing flashy – but it worked.
Now I bring that up because tonight, I could see a scenario where 2-3 Orlando Magic value are going to be in the optimal builds assuming both Anthony and Fournier sit.
You can click in Mason, Bacon, and Ennis and you have $7.5K per player for the rest of your build.
Do you want to add on three studs? Have at it! You can fit in Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid and Steph Curry alongside those 3 Magic punts with ease. In our Cash Game Breakdown from Adam Strangis, he made the STRONG case for a superstar anchored build because these stars are in ceiling type spots and we have all the value to make it work.
We talk about this all the time in our Discord, but on short slates, raw points matter, and the fact we have this potential path to a superstar build tonight makes it seem wildly straight forward.
However, there is always an argument to pivot – and tonight I think we have some interesting options.
Where to Pivot:
If you have read Picks and Pivots before you know that I love me a Stars and Scrubs build – it is what I strive for on every single slate and it seems like this five-game slate is delivering it right on a silver platter.
So why would I argue to pivot?
Well first, there is no guarantee Fournier/Anthony sit – so what happens if that Magic value is not there?
Secondly, even if they do sit – the fact that the “value” is in one condensed spot means that everyone will be using the same core value to get the same core stars. How exactly are you getting different?
So what if instead of going Stars and Scrubs – or should I say Stars and Magic – we go with a balanced build? Yes, this is Picks and Pivots and I am arguing to go balanced – people can change you know!
There are two games that I think can give us this contrarian GPP path with similar upside – Rockets/Heat and Raptors/Celtics.
The game that really intrigues me as a GPP game stack is this Toronto and Boston game because it seems like a spot that will get totally overlooked with both teams more or less “fully healthy” and with one of the slowest paced spots on the slate.
My interest though is twofold – 1) we have superstar talent at mid-range pricing as there is no single player in this game at or above $9K on DraftKings and 2) we have two teams with highly concentrated starting lineup usage and minutes which takes the guessing out of our plays.
The Raptors side of this game starts for me with Pascal Siakam ($8K) and Fred VanVleet ($8.5K) – the two Raptors that have the highest correlation pairing and the two Toronto players that performed the best in the only early-season meeting between these two teams when FVV dropped 55 DK points and Siakam hit for 37.
The Celtics lineup right now without Marcus Smart is basically a three-man show of Kemba Walker ($6.5K), Jaylen Brown (7.7K), and Jayson Tatum ($8.9K).
Since Smart went out, this trio has only shared the court for a total of 44 minutes with the large majority of it coming against Utah last game. While the fantasy production was nothing outstanding, the volume was – as this trio shot the ball 56 of 82 times, accounting for over 60% of the entire Boston offense.
THAT my friends is the appeal in this Boston/Toronto game – you can stack up the core 5 Celtics/Raptors with a mid-range build and get yourself the large majority of usage and volume.
In the first meeting between these two teams, Tatum (57 DK) and Brown (30) delivered strong games while it was Payton Pritchard (37 DK points) who got the guard production with both Kemba and Smart out.
Now past results do not predict future results – but let’s say we assume similar outcomes here tonight from the first game and slide Kemba into Pritchard’s role. This 5 man core would put you at 220 DK points or 5.6x value on their DK pricing tonight – and that assumes relative floor games for Brown/Siakam again.
What is interesting about that first game is how it went SUPER small. All of Baynes, Theis and Thompson started but they played just 13, 13 and 20 minutes a piece.
If you look at the game flow from that game – they opted to play small ball with Semi Ojeyle ($3.2K) getting 30 minutes of run in place in place of TT/Theis while the Raptors made similar match-up based decisions.
If Toronto remains without OG Anunoby and Yuta Watanabe tonight, it means more run for Norman Powell with the starters – meaning the bench unit will consist of Boucher/Davis/Johnson and Bembry. This could be a spot where Toronto goes small and we see ceiling games for Boucher or even paths to value for punts like Davis ($3.5K) and Bembry ($3.2K).
The Miami/Houston game has similar appeal and I think can be approached in a nearly identical way.
Houston is basically the same three-man show tonight with a core of John Wall ($7.1K), Victor Oladpio ($7.8K) and DeMarcus Cousins ($6.9K). Similar to what we outlined with Boston, you are basically getting the entirety of the Rockets fantasy production with this three-man core that will play all the minutes and soak up the lion’s share of usage.
First and foremost – I love this spot for Boogie who has seen his price drop after two subpar outings and now the field will move off him entirely. We loved him the last two games with Christian Wood sidelined for good strong analytical reasons – do not let results cloud the process.
Now we have not seen much of Wall and Oladipo together this season and we have just a 40-minute sample size of this duo on the court together with Cousins so it is tough to draw strong conclusions either way. but in the limited sample, it has been Boogie and Wall that have been the biggest winners usage wise and both sporting over a FP/M of production. With them also being cheaper than Dipo here, I think pairing them as a mini-stack and fading Dipo could pay big dividends.
The Miami side gets a big pace boost – and that should bode well for the under-priced duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Over the last 10 games, the Rockets are playing at a top 5 pace in the NBA and if you zoom in even more to the last 3 games with Wood sidelined, you see some trends we can attack.
During that time – the Rockets are giving up 50 rebounds per game, the 4th most in the league during that time, and giving up 6+ blocks per game. We have seen the Rockets give up 30+ DK points now in recent games to such juggernauts as Willy Hernangomez, Al Horford (2x), Enes Kanter and a big fat 60 burger to DeAndre Ayton.
All this sets up really well for Bam Adebayo ($8.6K) – another one of this mid-range plays with 50+ fantasy point upside who gets a favorable match-up and may get overlooked with those looking to jam in guys like Vuc or Embiid.
I think you can take a few paths here with these games – obviously you can game stack them if you so choose because both are very easy to do so. We mentioned the Raptors/Celtics but the same logic applies with a Wall/Cousins and Butler/Bam mini-stack. All of this is an effort to attack a mid-range that could go underutilized tonight if Stars and Scrubs are where the focus of the field is.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate seems very straight forward – IF we get the news that the Magic will be short-handed tonight. We get the clear value and it opens up all the paths to the stars and I think that build will become the mega chalk for good reason.
However, if the idea of Frank Mason, Dwayne Bacon, and James Ennis chalk makes you uncomfortable – then take a path where we go more balanced and game stack two spots that will go over-looked.
On short slates like this one, taking a stand is KEY. Either go all in with the Magic value in a Stars/Scrubs build or plant your flag, fade the chalk and load up on a Raptors/Celtics game with under-priced star power!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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