Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We are slowly moving into the part of this NBA re-start where it feels like late-season NBA DFS – teams sitting players, scaling back rotations ahead of the playoffs and with that – means far more Stars and Scrubs kind of builds.
Today at first glance, this is feeling very Stars and Scrubs-y – yeah, sure that is a word, why not.
Let’s start with the key to the slate – the status of Russell Westbrook and what that means for James Harden.
We all know the drill by now, when Westbrook sits, you play Harden. Every time. No excuses. It is that simple.
The issue tonight is that the Westbrook news may not be known before lock and with the Rockers-Lakers the last game at 9 PM, we may have to wait and see. My take is simple – put Harden in your placeholder line-up with the expectation that Westbrook sits and IF we have to adjust, we can simply move things around later. I would much prefer this approach than building without Harden and trying to shoehorn him in after the fact.
With the focus on Harden tonight – what will that mean for the ownership on a more expensive Luka Doncic ($11.3K) who has played 40 MPG since the re-start and all he has done is rock 65, 65 and 83 fantasy point outings. With all the value we have on this slate (more on that in a moment) – there is a very easy argument to take the raw points of Luka AND Harden on this slate.
With the Memphis loss yesterday, Portland is now just one game back of the #8 spot in the Western Conference and now we get Big Game Dame! Damian Lillard ($9.7K) has played 40+ minutes in every single bubble game and put up 20 FGA in each game – and at under $10K on DK, there is a massive 6x ceiling for him here today.
Now, what will be interesting today is what people do with bubble darlings like TJ Warren and Michael Porter Jr.?
Will recency bias drive inflated ownership on these plays? Will that mean we see less focus on guys like Dame as an example if they are paying up for Warren? If we see ownership skewing away from the tried and true ceiling stars as everyone chases the next big thing – I think taking a stand here and fading them could pay huge dividends in GPP (or back fire as it has the last few slates).
The linchpin to all this – the Miami Heat.
With Jimmy Butler already ruled out and Goran Dragic questionable – the Heat are going to be value city and the fact they are the first game on the slate will likely mean we get inflated ownership as well.
Kelly Olynyk was the talk of the Discord the other day and that was before the Butler news came out which pushed Kelly O into a starting role that resulted in a 41 fantasy point performance. Even bumped to $4.8K on DK, I would argue there is still tons of profit potential here.
Tyler Herro was another projections play last slate and after going 6x his price the last two slates WITH Dragic playing, why would we move off today if Dragic sits. Herro at $3.6K is basically a free square.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
Going Stars and Scrubs today seems like the absolute best path with so much value opening up and getting 2-3 studs and using all this sub $4K value with clear paths to minutes is going to be my preference in all builds.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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