Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
Saturday’s NBA DFS slate has a little bit of everything as we had some superstar ceiling games (Embiid 80+ DK pts), some major letdowns (ahem Pelicans), a whole lot of 7x value and a 70 fantasy point performance from the one and only TJ Warren! The key on this slate, much like it was on Friday, was nailing the ceiling games from the stars as these 70-80 fantasy point games are driving the cash lines higher and higher.
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown: The Stars
With the superstar ceiling games top of mind the last two nights, it is hard not to open this slate and notice we have a trio of slate breaking studs at our disposal again today.
With James Harden, $11.1K), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11K) and Luka Doncic ($10.8K) all over $10K on DraftKings, we are going to have to decide right away the path we want to take with these stars.
If there was any worry about minutes restrictions for this trio in the first game in the bubble, well that was quickly dispelled as Giannis played 32 minutes and dominated the usage as he typically does with 35% usage on his way to 70 DK points against Boston. Harden and Luka meanwhile went into OT and played 43 and 42 minutes respectively while dropping 85 and 65 DK points on opening night.
Let’s start with Luka, who will take on a Suns team he dropped 74 fantasy points on earlier this season comes at a minimal discount to both Giannis and Harden and that may again drive his ownership higher as he was the highest owned star on Friday’s similarly superstar driven slate at 46% in the Milly Maker.
Giannis was the next highest owned at 33% and if you played him against the Celtics, I am not sure how you don’t go back to the well in a far better game environment against the Rockets. These two teams played earlier in the season and Giannis racked up 71 DK points in just 28 minutes – as if we needed any more data to suggest this is a ceiling spot for the Bucks franchise star.
Lastly, we have Harden, the lowest owned of the trio on Friday at just 27% who had the best game of them all with 85 DK points. In the earlier season match-up it was actually Russell Westbrook who had the better game with 62 DK points compared to Harden’s 51.
What was fascinating to me looking back at Friday’s game against Dallas was the usage metrics for the Rockets duo. Westbrook led the team with a 36% usage rate while Harden was significantly below his season average of 35.6% – all the way down at 27%,
So while The Beard’s usage was down nearly 10%, he still managed to get 85 fantasy points. Think about that for a second.
Now his efficiency in that game was off the charts, shooting 14-20 from he floor and getting 18 of 21 from the line, which are not sustainable marks for his fantasy production but as the usage ticks up to his normal levels, it may offset any drop in his shooting efficiency.
This trio here today and how you attack them, is going to determine how this slate shakes out for you – I think it is just that simple. If these three stars all have ceiling games, you are missing out on a 200+ fantasy point foundation. Conversely, if you fade the stars and go more balanced, you could gain significant leverage off the field if they have floor games.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown: The Scrubs
One of the reasons that the stars have been so critical these first two large slates is that we have so much value which allows you to grab 2-3 stars without much effort and today looks to be more of the same!
The popular value spot on Friday in San Antonio looks to be every bit as viable today in a far better match-up against the up-paced Grizzlies. With San Antonio being so banged up, Pop is clearly giving the secondary players on this team a LONG look as we saw guys like Jakob Poeltl and Lonnie Walker step into the starting lineup and play 32 minutes each.
Additionally, our projection models were high on a minimum priced Keldon Johnson on Friday, an impressive rookie who played 30 minutes off the bench with 17 of his 30 minutes coming in the second half/closing minutes of their game against the Kings.
This trio combined for 73.75 fantasy points against the Kings, as all three players went for 30+ minutes and today you can get all three players for just $10.5K on DK which would set you up for another 7x value with a similar outing. I know it is scary to think about going with so many values, but if you go Transformers style and combine Lonnie, Poeltl and Keldon into one player – you essentially have another $10K player with 70+ upside. Fire up LonPoeDen (yes that is the trio combined) – here again for all the value!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
If you step back and look at another Stars and Scrubs build today, you have another very clear path to 300+ DK points that I think we need to simply follow.
If you replicate Harden/Luka/Giannis and let’s combine the 3 Spurs value – that core 6 was able to give you 293+ DK points on Friday. That becomes a similar baseline with two more spots to go in your build.
For as long as we have this easy value – considering this is also a slate with the three biggest usage/fantasy stars in the NBA – I am going to take the path of least resistance and go Stars and Scrubs once again!
Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dude Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that has put us on all the top value each slate!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
