David Stowe 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Welcome back NBA DFS fans to a full day of NBA bubble action on Saturday as we have five games that are spread out on the Main Slate which kicks off at 1 PM EST and concludes with an 8:30 match-up between the Bucks/Mavs.
This slate most certainly does not lack for star power with Giannis, Luka, LeBron and AD all on it – but at this point in the re-start, there are real concerns as DFS players over which players are still going to give us full run.
You know which star we don’t have to worry about? Damian Lillard ($10K).
Portland is now just one game back of the #8 seed in the West and Dame is literally playing ALL the minutes he can handle right now as he tries to carry his team into the post-season. Dame has played 40+ minutes in every single game of this re-start and has shot the ball 20+ times per game with DFS ceiling games of 60 and 80 points in that four game sample.
Anytime you can get a player this late in the season with something to play for, this much court time and a slate leading type ceiling – you just play him. It is that simple.
If there is one game that really catches my eye as a potential stack today – it is Miami and Phoenix. The Suns have been scorching hot (haha see what I did there) since the re-start, winning all 4 games inside the bubble and now sitting just 2.5 games back of Memphis with 4 to play.
The Suns have also increased their pace since the re-start, playing at a top 5 pace in the NBA and pushing more than two possessions per game more than their pre-COVID regular-season average. Their opponent today, the Miami Heat, will be down Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn and potentially Goran Dragic and we have seen the Heat perform as one of the lowest-rated defensive teams in the games since Butler has been sidelined. So fast pace and bad opposing defense you say?
The Suns are leaning on their trio of Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Johnson from both a minute per game perspective and a usage/volume perspective. Booker is the lead-dog here with a 33% usage rate but it has actually been Ayton with the higher ceiling relative his price with two games at 50 FP which would return 6.3x value at today’s price of just $7.6K on DK.
Cam Johnson meanwhile makes for an intriguing correlation with Booker/Ayton because he doesn’t require shot volume to hit his value, as his as used peripheral stats to go 6x in two of his last three games.
Lastly, Cameron Payne ($3.6K) has gone for 6x in every single game since we re-started the season and to get that kind of consistency from a punt is rare in DFS.
If you are going Suns heavy, I do think a run back with Miami makes sense and with all the injuries – we are going to have tons of value with guys like Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk who have been popular Win Daily targets the last week.
The guy I want today though is Bam Adebayo ($7.4K). Bam is a guy who was priced at $9K or higher before COVID hit, and we have seen his price drop now to a level, especially with all these injuries, that I simply cannot pass on.
The minutes have been volatile for Bam and I hope that keeps the game log watchers off him, because when he has played 30+ minutes as he did against Boston, he would get you 6x value at this price tag. If you are loading up on Suns and assuming this game plays fast and stays close, Bam is the ceiling run back that may get over-looked as everyone plays the cheap Heat value instead.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
To me this slate is all about Dame as a cornerstone in my builds and looking to find game stacks around him as a one-off.
If you step back and think about this slate – we have some potential ugly games with cloudy rotations – so this could be about playing game theory more than it is about the plays itself.
Are LeBron/AD and Luka/Giannis the best plays on the slate? Sure, but do we think they play normal minutes? Will the Jazz get their starters back on the floor and how will that impact Michael Porter Jr. who has 3 straight 50+ fantasy games.
To me, the two teams with the most to play for today are the Blazers and Suns and I think anchoring around them gives you the clearest path to a roster build that is balanced price wise and gives you multiple pieces with 50+ fantasy point upside.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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