Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
Friday’s first slate back of NBA DFS was absolutely awesome and if you read the content here at Win Daily, were in the Discord and used the projection models – well, let’s just say you were probably part of the late-night screenshot parade that included GPP takedowns from our members and team!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown:
The biggest takeaway I have had from these first two slates in the NBA is that the idea of any sort of “ramp-up” is complete nonsense as the run/minutes for the star players is making it seem like it is back in mid-March and nothing ever changed. Seeing guys like Harden/Luka playing 40+ minutes last night, watching LeBron/AD and company all play 33-34 minutes two nights ago – the stars are playing normal minutes and so we need to re-adjust our perception.
Looking at today’s slate we have a ton of star power on this five-game slate and the argument again will be for just how many studs can we fit in!
The absolute best game on this slate is Clippers-Pelicans with Vegas giving us a game that has a total 10 points higher than any other at 227 and the two highest projected scoring teams on the slate with Clippers (116) and Pelicans (111).
The big news here is that Zion Williamson will continue to have his minutes monitored after playing just 15 minutes against the Jazz. The Clippers meanwhile will be without Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell again so we get the benefit of very similar rotations to what we saw the first night of the season.
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George played 33 and 34 minutes respectively against the Lakers and in this pace up game environment, I think both can deliver ceiling performance at these price points. In the two previous games against New Orleans that both these stars played in (the last game PG13 sat out), they averaged right at 100 fantasy points per game combined and that is the kinda floor/ceiling you are setting here again.
The Pelicans side without Zion leads me right back to the “Big 3” for the Pelicans in a must-win game being 3.5 out of the playoff picture. So go right back to Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball as the clear usage and FP winners with Zion off the floor.
Now, I know for many of you – you got burned by Lonzo last game and it may be tempting to jump ship but please do not. Look at his stat line – 6 board, 7 assists and 2 steals. What killed him – and what usually does – is his poor shooting and opening night was no different as he went a putrid 2 for 13 from the floor.
In GPP’s Lonzo’s ability to rack up a triple-double on any night gives him massive appeal and upside and if game log watchers are going to jump off, I say we stay right back on the train and stack all three Pelicans stars!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
Now you might look at the advice above and say – but Brian, how can I get Kawhi, PG13, Lonzo, Jrue and BI all in one lineup – that only leaves me $9.5K for my last three players.
Fear not Win Daily family – go click on the Nuggets, because today they are all the punt value we need. With Will Barton and Gary Harris already ruled out and Jamal Murray questionable, we will have tons of value right off the bat with the first game on the slate (and confirmed lineups).
If Murray sits – you can get a Nuggets back-court stack of Monte Morris and Torrey Craig for $6.5K combined. Seriously – take advantage of this punt value while we have it – just lock it in! The one guy we should not overlook for GPP’s is a min-priced Michael Porter Jr. who has put up 1.2 FP/M this season with the Nuggets trio off the court and with SF/PF eligibility on DK, he offers you a ton of roster construction flexibility.
Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dude Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that has put us on all the top value each slate!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
