Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown:
The first night back for the NBA since mid-March will give us an appetizer slate with two games – as the Jazz/Pelicans start off at 6:30 PM EST with the Lakers/Clippers to follow at 9:00 PM.
There are a few key items we should cover first:
- The Clippers will be without both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell and the status of Patrick Beverley remains questionable.
- The Lakers will be without Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley, while both Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis are questionable to play. As I write this, the latest update is that AD expects to play (we have seen this before).
- The Jazz will be without Bojan Bogdanovic for the rest of the season due to wrist surgery.
- The Pelicans have welcomed Zion Williamson back inside the bubble but there are questions if he will suit up the first night back.
So to recap – AD is questionable, the Clippers are missing two key players and we still do not know if Zion will play – yep, it is like the NBA never missed a beat.
As we ramp back up for the start of the season, the truth is – we have far more unknowns than things we have certainty on – basically 2020 in a nutshell. All that means is you need to be comfortable as DFS players with the risk you are taking on because these “seeding games” could be a total crapshoot.
All that leads me to focus entirely on GPP’s because until we know – well, we don’t know.
One thing we do know is the standings. The Lakers and Clippers sit 1-2 in the West separated by 5.5 games while the Jazz are in the 4th spot but just a game away from dropping to 6th. The Pelicans meanwhile are the lone team on this slate on the outside looking in as they sit 3 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the Western Conference and for that reason, they would seem to be the best bet for immediate production with no room to spare in their playoff push.
The biggest question mark is whether Zion Williamson will play or sit and it makes a massive difference in how we approach this slate. In the games played post-All-Star break, the Pelicans ranked as the 2nd fastest-paced team in the league and if Zion were to sit, I think you have a very clear path to increased usage for the rest of the team that we know plays fast.
Without Zion, a three-man core of Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram would become the foundation of my builds as we know where the bulk of the Pelicans fantasy production would come from. In 478 minutes this season on the court together without Zion, this trio has put up 115 fantasy points per 36 minutes which at their combined salary would put you just under a 5x return.
Nicolo Melli will likely draw the start in place of Zion, should he sit, as we saw him slide into the starting rotation in the pre-season bubble exhibitions and at $4K would offer you serious salary relief for a two-game slate. JJ Redick is another player that if Zion were to sit would see a slight uptick in his usage and FP/M production and provide another value alternative on a slate where we will need to find every dollar we can!
Now if Zion were to play, even in a limited role – I think you cross off guys like Melli/Redick and any minute he is on the court, he caps the upside of the other Big 3 so a Pelicans all-in stack really hinges on Zion sitting.
If you go this route, then I think running it back with a game stack is the best approach in GPP’s and for the Jazz, that will always start with Donovan Mitchell.
While you may not think that injury to Bojan would impact Mitchell all that much, it is D-Mitch that actually gets the biggest fantasy boost with an additional 2.3 FP per 36 this season. The other player that should see an uptick off the bench is Jordan Clarkson who sees a 2% usage boost and grades out as an FP/M player. In a fast-paced game like this, Clarkson could be a guy who regardless of game flow gets his minutes and could put up big numbers chucking off the bench.
At this point, you may be wondering when I am going to get to the marquee game on this slate – Lakers and Clippers. Well, we are here, and honestly – my gut was to fade it.
I think teams like the Lakers are going to use these 8 games back as full-on ramp-up spots with their eye solely on getting ready for the playoffs and the quotes/interview from LeBron James have seemed to back that up in the last few days. The addition of guys like JR Smith and Dion Waiters and the absence of guys like Rondo/Bradley lead me to see this as a time where LA works out its rotations rather than pushes for maximum minutes.
The one play here that I do have some interest in as a punt is Dion Waiters at $3.1K on DK. This tweet below from Mike Gallagher at Establish the Run really caught my eye as Waiters has been among the Disney usage leaders and with a clear path to minutes with a banged-up guard/wing rotation in LA – he could pay off this near minimum price tag if his shot is falling!
The last piece of the puzzle is the Clippers, again not a team I expect is going to go all-in for seeding but with just a 1.5 game lead on Denver for the #2 spot and 3 games above Utah for the #4 seed, they cannot afford to take this ramp up too lightly.
With Lou Will and Trez out for this game, I think it will mean far more on the plates of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The difference in pricing for these two on DK is absolutely staggering as Kawhi is $2K more than PG13 and the metrics would tell us that with Williams/Harrell off the court this season – it is actually George that gets the biggest usage and FP/M bump. Of all the stars in the LA battle, PG13 at $7.2K seems like the best bang for your buck!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
So where does all this leave us?
With Anthony Davis likely to play now, I do not see the need to shoe-horn LeBron into my lineup at his price tag and with an expectation that he is simply playoff prepping.
The key here is to take a stand on a two-game slate and with that being said, I think rolling a NO-Utah game stack is the ideal way to plant your flag. Assuming Zion sits, it becomes a far easier path to go all-in on the Pelicans and run it back with Mitchell but be ready to scale back if we get word Zion is a go.
All in all – play this slate and these first few games light and with a GPP focus. Take shots because while you are likely just guessing at how this COVID bubble world unfolds – guess what – SO IS EVERYONE ELSE.
So take stands. Fade LeBron on a two gamer. Ignore AD as he heads to the Locker Room. Don’t be afraid to take chances because playing the chalk on a two-game slate and hoping for a “min-cash” is a wasting an opportunity to get a little crazy.
Welcome back NBA. We missed ya.
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