Gary Gustafson 
Welcome my friends to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a nice 8 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:30 PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Welcome to Monday’s 8 Game NBA DFS slate which let’s just go ahead and rename it – The Giannis Slate.
While we may have eight games to choose from, the reality is – having Giannis Antetokounmpo listed as doubtful to play with a sprained knee coming after the slate was created, means we have wild mispricing on the remaining Milwaukee Bucks players.
It is going to lead to some seriously concentrated ownership, but I would argue rightfully so. All of Khris Middleton ($7.6K), Jrue Holiday ($6.8K), Donte DiVincenzo ($6.1K), and Bobby Portis ($4.1K) are far too cheap in this spot with Giannis and his league-high usage rate sidelined.
We have seen the Bucks play without Giannis just once this season – back on January 9th against the Cavaliers. In that game, Portis slid into the starting lineup and dropped 43 DK points while Middleton (46) and Jrue Holiday (38) gave you strong returns on their mid-range pricing.
There is no doubt that the Bucks are good plays tonight – likely optimal plays by any and all metrics. The question for you and anyone playing NBA DFS tonight is how do you play with and off this massive chalk?
Personally – I think you have two ideal options from a GPP perspective – we either fade the chalk entirely or we get the chalk and go all-in on a game stack!
Fade the Chalk
First, you play the all-out fade game with the idea that it is an 8 game slate and we have a ton of great plays in other games. You simply hope the Bucks have good but not great games and your pivots at lower ownership help you set the cash position.
In that game back on January 9th, the Bucks played at a significantly slower pace against the Cavs, just 94 possessions which is significantly off their season-long mark of 105 possessions per game. For context, the 105 mark is top 3 on the season in the entire league while that 94 single-game mark would be lower than any team in the NBA this season.
So if we opt to fade the Bucks chalk in the hope the game plays slow and the high-owned plays see more floor than a ceiling – where do we pivot to for said ceiling?
The reality is – the 9 PM EST games that are all around the Bucks/Pacers have as much injury news we can anchor to and my guess is, it will be focused on far less.
For example – the Celtics will be without Kemba Walker against the fast-paced Grizzlies which means we get point Jayson Tatum ($8.6K) under $9K tonight. Tatum has already shown us the ceiling he has in these kinds of games, going for 50+ DraftKings points in 6 of the 16 games that Kemba has missed – making him a ceiling star we can build around for a bargain price.
If we are looking for a pivot game stack – the Raptors and Rockets rank as two of the bottom 4 defensive teams in the NBA over the last 10 games and we could see additional injury news and value open up here. The Rockets are on the tail end of a B2B which means Victor Oladipo and John Wall are names to watch. I do find it interesting that Oladipo is not on any site right now with projected starters which means this could be the John Wall ($7.1K) show for the Rockets.
I love a good narrative in NBA DFS and it is hard to think this Rockets teams will not somehow rally around their coach Stephen Silas. If you missed the Coach’s post-game yesterday – watch this and tell me you don’t think this team is going to rally around him at some point.
Wall has shown 50+ upside with Dipo sidelined and I think that using him and Christian Wood ($8K) tonight IF Oladipo is out, could pay big dividends against a Toronto team that has been dreadful defensively the last 10 games.
Toronto is allowing teams to shoot the ball at nearly 50% in this recent stretch while giving up the 2nd most 3’s per game of any team in the NBA. They are allowing the most FTA per game at nearly 30 per game, giving up the 3rd most rebounds per game (behind the Rockets mind you) and the third most assist per game.
This has not been the Raptors defense we are used to and I think if Dipo sits, the usage would all flow to Wall/Wood who have paths to monster ceiling games.
With the Raptors back at full strength now, they have opted to play smaller with Pascal Siakam ($7.5K) at the 5 and that would make this Wood-Siakam match-up REALLY intriguing in my mind because this game could play really fast. In the last two games, the Raptors have played at a 101 possession pace with Siakam at the 5 which is a 10% improvement on their season-long pace metrics.
While the Raptors have been bad defensively – so too have the Rockets. In the last 10 games, they rank bottom 5 in FG% allowed, rebounds per game allowed, assists per game allowed, and 3 PM made per game. If you are telling me, I can get the usual 35-40 minutes for guys like Siakam, Fred VanVleet ($7.6K), and Kyle Lowry ($8.1K) in this spot – at the same price points as guys like Middleton/Jrue – oh baby, hello pivot town!
Eat The Chalk
The second option – you go all-in on this chalk – but do so in the context of the game stack against the Pacers. If you eat the chalk and played 2, 3, or even 4 Bucks tonight, I think you are can double down and run it back with Indiana Pacers in the hope this game is close throughout and you get ceilings on both sides.
The nice part about this game stack is that both teams play relatively condensed rotations and the pricing is such that a game stack is easy to build at the core of your NBA DFS lineups.
Domantas Sabonis ($9K) gets to take on the same Bucks teams he faced a month ago and dropped 59 DK points against and now he has no Giannis to worry about on the interior.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7.2K) has been the model of consistency for the Pacers with 38.5 points now in 3 of his last 4 games and is averaging 40 DK points per game over his last six games which puts him at a solid 5.5x value at tonight’s price point.
Myles Turner ($5.8K) is coming off back to back strong outings with 32 and 36 DK points but that has been completely driven by two straight games with 5 blocked shots. The upside is there but boy oh boy – those blocks are a volatile commodity when it comes to NBA DFS scoring.
Caris LeVert ($6.4K) was not available the first time these teams met but he is not at a point, after three games of 30+ minutes, where the ceiling could be unlocked as the usage and offensive volume has been trending upwards.
The Pacers have played at the 10th fastest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games and have been playing at this pace essentially since LeVert returned which is a serious uptick from the 15-20th ranking in pace they had prior to LeVert re-joining the team. If the Bucks play at a “Giannis pace” in this game, the Pacers are showing they are willing to do the same it could mean a fast-paced shootout that allows for ceilings on both sides.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This Monday Night NBA DFS slate is a monster and one that I think allows for far more strategy than simply “picking the best plays.” Anytime we get big injury news to a star player as early as we got the Giannis news, it is going to skew ownership in a major may and we need to adjust accordingly.
With Giannis doubtful to play, the NBA DFS question of the night is how you approach the Bucks chalk. Do you simply eat it and go all-in hoping the Pacers run back gives you a game stack ceiling? Or can you pivot entirely, attacking other high ceiling spots on an 8-game slate that will go over-looked? If the Bucks chalk flops, you have a path to one of those GPP memorable nights!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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