Gary Gustafson 
Happy Monday my NBA DFS family – I hope you had a great weekend sweating some wild NFL Playoff action but now we turn our attention to this eight game slate in The Association on Monday Night with a whole lot of injury news to sort through and assuredly, more to come as we build our DraftKings and FanDuel lineups!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
When looking over this eight game slate on Monday, it is hard to overlook the lengthy injury list that dominates this slate mostly due to COVID protocols which are wreaking havoc on the league and actually caused the Miami/Boston game to be postponed on Sunday.
What this slate SCREAMS as a result is value, and so going Stars and Scrubs is going to be a priority here for me today.
Prioritizing the studs is where we begin – and for me that starts with two early games – Suns/Wizards and Hawks/Sixers.
These two games not only have the two fastest projected paces on the slate but they give us ample star power with increased usage and fantasy production available due to injuries.
The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA and tonight will be without both Russell Westbrook (rest) and Thomas Bryant (injury) which takes two starters that have put up 2.5 FP/M combined over the last two weeks – leaving a whole lot of production up for grabs in Washington.
Obviously that all starts with Bradley Beal ($9.9K) who sports a 40% usage rate and 1.8 FP/M or 65 DK points per 36 with both Westbrook and Bryant sidelined this season.
On the other side of this game, we have an exceptionally cheap Devin Booker ($7.9K) who is nearly $2K below his price point on DK from where it was to begin the season. Among starters this season, Booker ranks in the top 25 in usage with a 28% rate that sits right between $10K players like Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid but we get him tonight in a massive pace up spot, against a league worst defense and all at a discount – sign me up!
It may not seem like much, but with Cameron Payne sidelined last game and doubtful for tonight, the Suns actually adjusted their rotations slightly and let Book run the second unit with CP3 on the bench for nearly 15 minutes against the Pacers. If you get Booker running that second team offense against the Wizards bench – watch out, because this could be a ceiling game incoming!
The Hawks/Sixers will be a popular focus tonight with the Sixers being so wildly short-handed with Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Seth Curry and Shake Milton and so while there is going to be some serious value, let’s not bury the lede and skip what this means for Joel Embiid ($9.8K).
Over the last two season with Tobias and Simmons off the court, not shockingly, Embiid has a 40% usage rate while putting up 60 DK points per 36 minutes and frankly that seems low tonight with all the fringe/ancillary pieces that are missing as well.
The Sixers projected starting lineup tonight is expected to be something along the lines of Tyrese Maxey, Isaiah Joe, Danny Green and Mike Scott alongside Mr. Embiid. No those are not create a players in NBA2K, those are real life NBA players who are starting an NBA game just weeks into the season,
Embiid’s usage is going to be bonkers in this game almost by default and so locking him in with a short-handed JV squad seems like a ceiling path here for another top end star.
Now my man Adam Strangis covered this beautifully in today’s Cash Game Core but the absence of Ben Simmons makes this a significantly easier match-up for Trae Young ($9.4K) on the other side.
Now this is not totally fair, but the Sixers are ranked as the 2nd best defensive team per Def-Rtg this season but last game with the whole crew sidelined, they dropped down to bottom 5. Small sample size not withstanding, this sets up as a spot where Trae is going to simply get whatever he wants against the Sixers back-up and the 1v1 run back with Embiid has slate breaking upside.
Finding the Value
As Adam mentioned in his cash game breakdown, the value in Philadelphia is going to be wildly popular and for good reason and frankly, you can extend that to the Dallas Mavericks who continue to be down multiple starters/bench pieces.
One of the ways I think you can get different tonight in Stars and Scrubs builds is to try and differentiate at the low end and play different value pieces than the rest of the industry.
Why are you playing all these Sixers you likely never heard of until this past weekend? Well, they are going to start and play massive minutes – so easy lock button right?
No, and the reason is we have essentially the exact same scenario in other games but because it is not “new news” people will overlook it.
The Cavaliers remain without Darius Garland and Collin Sexton is still questionable and that backcourt being hurt has led to massive minutes and roles for Damyeam Dotson and Isaac Okoro.
Dotson ($4.9K) is $200 more than Sixers guard Tyrese Maxey who just dropped 60 DK points. Guess where everyone and their mother is going to go?
Meanwhile Dotson has played 35 and 41 minutes the last two games and just dropped 41 DK points of his own. This is where looking at the chalk value and the pricing is ideal because you find pivots in the same range that essentially you can play with the same logic.
Okoro ($3.4K) meanwhile is a tick above the Sixers forwards like Mike Scott/Paul Reed and has played 39 and 34 minutes the past two games (albeit with poor shooting that has resulted in 19 and 8 DK points.)
If the only reason you are playing the Sixers value is because “they will get the minute” – look to a team like Cleveland that is in essentially the exact same spot and will be totally overlooked because people always want to play the “new value.”
The other piece of advice here – do not get “locked into value” on this slate because this could be a slate where more injury news breaks and new punts emerge. For example – if Steven Adams is ruled out, Jaxson Hayes ($3.1K) could draw the start – a crazy athletic big man against a banged up and undermanned Mavericks interior.
Trust the model today guys – we say it every day but the model will help us dig deeper for value and I think that is where we make our move tonight in GPP’s.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate is pretty strong – it is big enough where ownership should be spread out but it is also not one of those overwhelming 13 gamers. As an aside, we have nothing more than a 10 game slate this week so this sets up to be a great week of NBA DFS.
Overall my goal today is to watch the value – I feel good about the stars but am not simply going to take the easy path out with punts that will draw heavy ownership. Watch the model – watch Discord – profit. Rinse. Repeat.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
