Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to a Monday NBA DFS edition of Picks and Pivots where we break down our top plays and slate strategy for this six-game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings!
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
When I first opened this six-game slate on Monday, what stood out to me was the lack of “injury news” and the potential value we would have on this slate. While we do have a few key spots to watch including the status of DeMarcus Cousins and if Al Horford sits on a B2B, it seems odd that the majority of news is “known” by and large. What that really means to me is we lack the value to really prioritize the stars and I think that could leave us living in the mid-range more than we normally do.
Now that is not to say there are no stars I want to lock in – of course, there are – but value dictates builds to me and on slates where we do not have it, I am simply not going to force it. If getting to Luka Doncic means I have to play PJ Tucker – the value path just is not there.
Game Stack Anchor
In Adam’s Cash Game Breakdown, he brought up a great point about how this slate is littered with games with competing styles and metrics. The only game where both teams see a pace neutral to pace increase is Bulls/Rockets, a game that features the 3rd and 4th fastest teams in pace this season.
On a slate that lacks for true value, this game has enough injury news to boost an under-priced mid-range in a game that has some serious shootout potential.
The Bulls remain without Lauri Markannen and Otto Porter while the Rockets have already ruled out Victor Oladipo and Christian Wood while DeMarcus Cousins is questionable with a heel injury amidst trade rumors he is on his way out.
The Rockets have played at the fastest pace in the NBA the last 10 games, and if Boogie were to sit – this games gets real small real fast and could be an absolute track meet on both ends.
Zach LaVine ($9.5K) and John Wall ($8K) would be the “priority spends” in this game as a result of them being the ONLY spends in this game. No other expected active player is over $6.3K on DraftKings from this entire game
Over the last 10 games, John Wall (34.8%) and Zach LaVine (34.4%), rank 4th and 5th in the NBA in usage rate, trailing only Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard. So you are able to stack two elite usage stars in arguably the best game environment on the slate – and can do so with $5.5K remaining per player for the rest of your build on DraftKings.
The Bulls side of this game is littered with mid-range value – and this is a team that is getting back into form with their starting unit and focusing their minutes and usage on that core. In fact, last game against the Kings, the Bulls ran their starting 5 of White, LaVine, Temple, Williams and Carter Jr. all 30+ minutes.
This was the first game since his return from an injury that Wendell Carter Jr. ($5.3K) eclipsed the 30 minute mark and tonight he may get the added boost of a wildly undersized Rockets team if Boogie were to sit or be limited. Patrick Williams ($5.1K) is coming off a double-double against the Kings while Coby White ($6.2K) gives you a massive ceiling due to his ability to hit from deep.
We have seen in similar match-ups against fast paced teams that play poor defense (see New Orleans game on 2/10) where LaVine can hit his 60+ DK ceiling and do so with guys like White (46) also hitting his. This positive correlation for the key piece in LaVine with his secondary plays make it an ideal game stacking spot as they can all get there when the game environment is right – and tonight, it is.
The Rockets are a mess – but a mess we can use for DFS purposes. Listen, if Boogie is out alongside Oladipo – all the fringe Rockets are going to be in play as a sheer result of SOMEONE has to play. So this will push Eric Gordon ($6.3K) into massive minutes and Houston will have to stay under-sized in the frontcourt with Jae’sean Tate ($5.9K). It means guys like Nwaba, House, and Sterling Brown all get major boosts in a game that will go super small potentially with Ghost’s favorite – PJ Tucker – at the 5.
I did not wake up this morning thinking I would go all-in and stack this Bulls/Rockets game but it actually checks a ton of boxes for DFS tournaments.
We get a high total and fast pace game environment. We have two stars that can give us ceiling games in LaVine and Wall, who are frankly not priced as stars. We get a ton of injury news that brings about clean and concise rotations and under-priced mid-range plays as a result. If this game goes off – you basically know where it is coming from and you can stack up all the pieces without issue.
Big News = Big NBA DFS Pivots
We got some mid-day news that frankly – really changes my outlook on this slate. The Mavericks have downgraded Kristaps Porzingis to questionable and this has massive implications on how we get value and how we prioritize stars.
To be honest – this was a game I loved this morning but I could not find a way to make it work – then the KP news hit!
I am a big believer in trends in NBA DFS and over the last 10 games, the Mavericks/Grizzlies jump out in some key categories that make this an elite spot to target.
Over the last 10 games, both teams rank among the bottom 10 defensive units, allowing opponents to shoot at a top 5 FG% mark all while giving up the 2nd and 3rd most three-pointers of any teams in the NBA.
Now you take Porzingis off the court for Dallas and Dillon Brooks off the Memphis and all of a sudden you get two condensed rotations and mid-range plays that are not priced up for the roles they may have to take tonight.
And let’s not bury the lede – this all sits around a lock and load star in Luka Doncic ($11.4K) who will now be tasked with carrying even more of the offense if Porzingis sits.
With Memphis playing large on the other side of this game, it could push Willie Cauley-Stein ($3.2K) into the starting unit. The last time KP sat, WCS started against the Suns and played 30 minutes and racked up 35 DK points – making him a potential 10x value slate breaker and one that allows you to fit a star like Luka with ease.
I love the Bulls/Rockets game BUT I do think this Mavs/Grizzlies game now faults into similar game stacking territory AND you can do so at a likely ownership discount off the Bulls and Rockets.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
To me this slate is going to boil down to two games – Bulls/Rockets and Mavericks/Grizzlies. The Bulls and Rocket were my first lean but you see ownership trending heavily in that direction and with this mid-day news of Porzingis questionable – it pushes the Mavericks to the forefront in an equally strong game environment.
Personally, I want to stack and stack in a big time way and there is serious mid-range value in both games we can use to get the stars like Luka, LaVine and Wall into our lineups!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
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