Antonio D'Arcangelis 
Happy Monday my NBA DFS family and friends – we are back with another slate to break down on DraftKings and FanDuel as we kick off the post-holiday week with our top NBA DFS picks!
This article remains free through the end of 2020 as does the rest of our daily content offerings but that clock is ticking and after starting out this season hot – there is no better time to join the Win Daily Sports family. Hurry – just three more days left!
If you are looking to take your game to the next level – make sure you jump on this deal from Win Daily sports right now, for just ~$20/month, you can lock in the entire NBA season and get our ALL SPORTS package, giving you access to every week of the NFL regular and postseason. You are not going to find a better deal in the industry so sign up now and LET’S GO!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – First Look
At first glance this five game slate is LOADED as we have everything we look for – high ceiling stars, injuries that open up value and high pace and high total Vegas game environments to attack!
The most important starting point for me today is understanding the stars that are due to ride solo as we have seen time and time again in NBA DFS, those single usage stars dictate the slate’s scoring.
There are three key spots to watch today when it comes to the stars – 1) James Harden and the band of misfit toys, 2) Kyrie Irving potentially without Kevin Durant and Spencer Dinwiddie and 3) The Lakers duo of Anthony Davis and LeBron James both with injury tags.
So let’s not simply bury the lede here and gloss over these stars because I think it is where you are starting your builds, locking in multiple of these plays.
James Harden ($11.2K) remains without John Wall, Eric Gordon, and Boogie Cousins and he is simply a lock and load play on this slate. The best part is – people will still fade him – as they did on Saturday where 30-40% of the field opted to fade a player who we have season’s worth of data on which says when Harden is riding solo, you play him every time.
Harden shot the ball 22 times and had a team-high 35% usage rate on his way to 79 DK points and alongside teammate Christian Wood ($7.2K), were essentially the entire Rockets offense. Wood has seen his price elevate but arguably not nearly enough, as he had a 28% usage rate of his own with 22 FGA on his way to 54 DK points.
UPDATE: Well we went into this slate with the expectation that Spencer Dinwiddie and Kevin Durant would sit which may Kyrie Irving a must play – and then the NBA did NBA things and Kyrie is now OUT – which, frankly changes the slate entirely.
Welcome to lock city Caris LeVert ($6.5K). Last season with Kyrie and Dinwiddie off the court, LeVert sported a 37% usage and 1.4 FP/M in 500+ minutes. This is superstar usage at a role player price – he is a core play tonight.
It also makes me wildly interested now in a LeVert/Ja Morant ($8.3K) mini stack. This game is going to play at a breakneck speed and Morant/LeVert give you the top two options in this game at wildly reasonable prices.
Now last but not least is the Lakers – and this one is not nearly as “easy” since the injury status for both Anthony Davis ($10.1K) and LeBron James ($10K) is in doubt but this is another case of if one is out, you play the other. It sounds like LeBron is still questionable while we know that AD is expected to play.
Last year – if Lebron was out, Davis saw a 3.8% usage bump with nearly 6 more DK points per 36 minutes with a team-high 33% usage rate and 57 DK points per 36 minutes.
Simply, if one is out – you play the other. Can you say late night hammer with The Brow?
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate has been turned upside down but with the value we have now with Kyrie/Durant/Dinwiddie out for Brooklyn and Derrick Rose/Blake Griffin on Detroit – it sets up ideally for Stars and Scrubs.
Locking in James Harden, Caris LeVert and Ja Morant still leaves you with $4.8K per player so you have a ton of ways to go with this build.
You can try and jam in Anthony Davis and you still have $3.5K per player for the rest of your build and now we have all this value? Yes, please.
If you do not want to dumpster dive as much, pay down to Christian Wood instead as your 4th star and you have $4K left per player.
My take is simple – if LeBron is out – I want AD. If LeBron is in – I pivot to Wood and lock in that sweet $4K value range.
Watch the lineup news for Brooklyn and Detroit – its Stars and Scrubs time kids,
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
