Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Looking back at the last two days we have seen similar trends and roster builds in NBA DFS contests that have set cash lines and ultimately taken down the big GPP’s on DraftKings.
The winning line-up on Saturday scored 330 DK points jamming in LeBron, Giannis and McCollum and a whole lot of Portland/Laker value (4 guys under $4K) and faded the OKC/Houston game which ended up being the blow-out game.
Last night, the winning line-up ticked up to 347 DK points but with a similar Stars/Scrubs approach as the winning build had Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell and Kawhi Leonard – going then with five value plays including Daniel Theis, Marc Gasol, Reggie Jackson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Ivaca Zubac.
So is the winning formula in these NBA playoffs now to anchor to stars and scrubs with three ceiling players in our builds?
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Stars
Today we have just two games – both with similar 225 totals and 5 point spreads with the line difference is we have the “known” in the Rockets/OKC versus the unknown in a new series with the Bucks/Heat. I bring this up because with new series, brings new rotations and we saw that yesterday with Enes Kanter who was glued to the bench as the Celtics opted to use Robert Williams as their second unit big despite using Kanter in the first round.
If we want to explore a similar Stars and Scrubs build today – then the obvious place to start is with the high-priced duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.4K) and James Harden ($11.3K).
Harden is the “known” commodity in this series against OKC as Houston tried to close out the first round but his role is very much unknown as this could be the first game in the series where he plays alongside Russell Westbrook for meaningful minutes. Westbrook was on a near 25 minute cap last game and Harden played just 28 minutes due to a massive blowout.
What intrigues me about Harden is the continued low ownership as he was just 20% owned in GPP’s on Saturday and with his price ticking down just $100, will folks continue to stay away as Westbrook’s minutes ramp up?
Giannis meanwhile was churning out 60 DK point outings on the regular against the Magic in the first round and with some injury news on Milwaukee, it could push even more on to his plate here against Miami in Game One.
The big injury news we have to watch today is Eric Bledsoe who popped up with a Q Tag due to a hamstring injury which could end up being the key to this whole slate – as it would have a massive impact on the Bucks stars and introduce a whole ton of value (but more on that in a second).
This season, with Bledsoe off the court, the big winner has been Khris Middleton ($7.9K) who sees a whopping 5% usage bump and gets 6 more FP per 36 minutes. Giannis meanwhile sees a 2% usage boost and put up 70+ DK points in 3 of the 8 games Bledsoe missed this season.
Not only does the Bledsoe news have a positive impact on Giannis and tick his ceiling already that much higher – but it also open up the value we need to build around the stars – hence why I feel it holds the key to the slate.
The simple reality is – Harden and Giannis on a two game slate are likely the two raw point scoring leaders and if they have the kind of 60-70 point fantasy outings we have grown accustomed to – they alone will set the cash line.
We have seen the last two days that the cash line has been sub 300 DK points and I do not expect that to change on just a two game slate here tonight – so the reality is we don’t need to focus as much on 6x-7x value – but we need to find a path to raw points and that is going to start and end with the two highest priced players on the slate.
Locking in both Giannis/Harden will mean you have $4.5K per player for the rest of your build but it also gives you a realistic path to getting 150 fantasy points from just two guys and then it becomes all about how you fill in the rest of your builds.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Next Level:
I mentioned the last two slates it has been three stars anchoring the winning builds so even with Harden/Giannis in our line-ups – it means stepping down to the next level (before we go dumpster diving) to find our third piece – the Chris Bosh to our LeBron/Wade if you will.
We mentioned Khris Middleton already but if I am rolling out Giannis, I want him to get a ceiling game and he has neutral to slightly negative correlation with Middleton.
For slightly cheaper – we can go Bam Adebayo ($7.7K) who put up 45 and 49 DK points in the two pre-bubble games against the Bucks this season and will get the same interior match-up we just saw Nikola Vucevic exploit for massive games.
We saw it repeatedly with Vuc in that first round as he went for 50+ DK points in 4 of the 5 games against Milwaukee with double/double games and with Bam already showing he has hit 6x upside in this match-up earier this season, I think he has profit potential left at this price and helps you lock down your Center position on DK.
If you want to pivot off Bam – I would stay in the same range and move to Jimmy Butler ($8.1K) to give you a correlation with Giannis. Butler did not have the same success in this match-up that Bam had during the regular season with 38 DK points in his lone regular-season meeting but we saw against Indiana that his 48-50 point ability was on display and I think you can make the argument for either of this Heat pieces as your third piece in.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Scrubs:
Now going with Harden/Giannis and adding in Bam/Butler puts you under $4K remaining on DK for the last 5 spots in your build – a similar spot to what the winning line-ups have replicated the last two nights.
So let’s just run through some options quickly:
George Hill ($4.2K) would likely step into a starting role if Bledsoe were to miss this game and we saw back in December in an 8 game stretch Bledsoe was sidelined, Hill went for 27+ DK points in 3 of those games which would return 6.4x value at this price point.
Donte DiVincenzo ($3.4K) is another player that could step into major minutes if Bledsoe were to miss and he had similar success during that December run without Bledsoe – putting up 21 or more DK points in 7 of the 8 games that Bledsoe was out. In fact during that stretch he averaged 26 DK points, which would exceed 7.6x value at his price point today.
The Miami side of this game also has a ton of value – with a few names that I think we could play interchangeably.
Andre Igoudala ($3.5K) and his G/F eligibility on DK becomes a really nice piece to use in filling out rosters because we know a few things – he has 25+ minutes certainty on this Miami team which is hard to find at this price point and I would argue the minutes could tick up as they use Iggy to help guard Giannis all series long.
We saw against the Magic, the best way to attack the Bucks was from the three point line and this is where I think you start to mix and match value pieces from Miami.
The way Vuc was able to get those big outings is stepping out and draining threes and while Bam may not have that ability – you know who does? Kelly Olynk ($3.9K).
Kelly O under $4K could be the type of GPP value play that breaks the slate for you and I think if you go this route, it makes more sense to pair him with Butler than Bam from a correlation perspective.
I mentioned this game last game in our Discord as a high ceiling GPP punt and boy, did Darius Bazley pay off with 30 DK points in a blowout affair. Now Bazley has already flashed this upside with 22 DK points in Game 1 of the series so the fact he has shown you 6x ability twice in this series should make you feel comfortable using him in any game script.
The key in tournaments is taking shots on punts that can break the slate and that is why guys like Bazley/Kelly O are really intriguing.
Now there is nothing wrong with the steady presence of guys like Iggy/George Hill but when you are living in this punt range for tournaments – take shots on upside and I think we have guys here today that could be difference makers.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
Are you ready to go Stars and Scrubs again today? This piece has been working and I think we have paths to re-creating it here again today.
The key is watching the Bledsoe news but honestly, I think with Miami and guys like Bazley in OKC – we have other paths to punt that do not require you to simply hinge the day on Bledsoe’s hammy.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops – we are going to need to be flexible today as we wait on news. Build your core and wait to find the value we can plug and play!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
