Adam Strangis NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, August 17
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’ll be covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots for Brian Tulloch for the next couple weeks. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday August 17!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Welcome to the NBA Playoffs everyone! It’s finally that time of year and I think I can safely say we’re happy to make it to this point. This time of year means big minutes for stars, which can lead us to some challenging builds. For me, we’ll likely do a little less game stacking and go more of certain positions that get priority. This will be slate dependent but some of the secondary role players won’t be as viable now.
That leads us nicely into the Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets game. The 215.5 is the lowest O/U of the four games but circumstances have given us values in this game that we would be wise to take advantage of.
Game Stack
Jazz PG Mike Conley has left the bubble and that is going to give us a very chalky Jordan Clarkson. I find myself eating said chalk for a couple reasons. One, this slate doesn’t have hardly any value players under $4,000 and certainly none with the ceiling of Clarkson.
He has a 27.3% usage rate on the season without Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic on the floor. The Jazz are replacing Conley’s 29 minutes per game and 34 real points between the missing players. Clarkson and Donovan Mitchell are going to be tasked with a lot of the scoring in this game.
The other Jazz player I find myself gravitating towards heavily is Joe Ingles. He’s likely to to play more of a traditional point guard role here, distributing the ball. He and Mitchell have a near identical assist rate at 24% and the forward spots today aren’t that great. Playing Clarkson and Ingles together is a great way to get a piece of the Jazz at a cheap price.
On the flip side of this game, I feel strongly that DK gifted us the pair of Jamal Murray and Nikola “Big Honey” Jokic. Murray is normally a $7,000 player and Joker is normally $9,000. Yet on the opening slate, they cost you a combined $15,200. With the Nuggets still missing Gary Harris and Will Barton, we can bank on these two running the show with an assist from Michael Porter, Jr. All three players have a usage over 23% in the bubble and both Joker and Murray are at 1.20 DKPM. We might not normally game stack but this quartet is really nice to kick things off.
Player Pool for PF
My focus next turns to the PF spot. It’s….ugly, to be kind. I feel there’s three options here. One, you just go MPJ and stack up the three Nuggets that are going to carry them in Game 1. Perfectly viable, starting to get eggs into one basket and MPJ feels a hair pricey.
The second option is to go with Raptors forward Pascal Siakam. He’s shown very little ceiling so far and this is likely just a cash option only. The matchup is nice with Brooklyn but I could see Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol (if Ibaka is out) having great games at a much lower price. Attacking Brooklyn with centers has been prosperous all season long, as they are bottom five to the position.
The option I’m looking at is Marcus Morris for the Clippers. At just $4,200 he should be able to grind his way to value. He was consistently playing 32-36 minutes in the games LA actually tried. What’s better is he played two games with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. He scored 28 DK in both and would be a perfect value at this salary. I find it hard to believe Montrezl Harrell walks into significant minutes if he plays after the time he’s missed.
Rest of the Player Pool
Spending down with Morris allows me to play Kawhi, who is at a hefty price but also has among the highest ceilings here. Postseason Kawhi is a different player and I want to get my shares in early. I understand he was with a different team last year, but he averaged 40 minutes, 30.5 points, 9.1 boards and 3.9 assists in 24 games. He averaged 52 DK points. If anyone takes the backseat here, it’s likely to be PG. There’s also the motivation of facing Luka Doncic and I’ll take 40 minutes from Kawhi here.
One last value that I want to point out is Joe Harris for the Nets. Inside the bubble, he’s been playing to a 1.07 DKPM mark. That’s been aided by shooting 54% from behind the arc. Toronto is a weird matchup. They allowed the lowest FG% from three, but also allowed the highest frequency. I’ll take my chances on the attempts with Harris, especially under $5,000.
Other players I’ll have some exposure too include –
Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Lowry, Paul George, Kemba Walker, Fred VanVleet, Lou Williams, Raptors C (Ibaka or Gasol), Royce O’Neal, Rudy Gobert
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
With no real visible alternative as of now, I will eat the Clarkson chalk and likely end up stack the Nuggets game to some extent. I want some pieces from Toronto vs Brooklyn but prefer LA vs Dallas if you can fit them. I’m not super interested in Boston vs Philly as that game should be slow and doesn’t give us much value anywhere. You could maybe talk me into a share of Alec Burks or Josh Richardson, but that is MME only.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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