Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We head into the final days of the NBA regular season in the bubble and each and every slate we are finding more and more teams resting players as they clinch their postseason positions which is making figuring out rotations a tougher task each and every day.
Today we already know the Mavericks will be without both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, the Nuggets remain without both Gary Harris and Will Barton and with Q tags next to guys like Donovan Mitchell, Steven Adams and TJ Warren – well, today is going to be no different.
For the most part, the rest of the regular season is going to be about seeding for these remaining teams with the exception coming at the bottom of the Western Conference where we have 4 teams withing 1.5 games of the #8 seed and with a play-in tournament added this year if the #8 seed is less than 4 games ahead for the last spot – well, this is setting up for a wild ride for those final teams.
The Phoenix Suns are one of those teams, 1.5 games behind Memphis entering play as they have gone undefeated in bubble play. Today they take on Oklahoma City who is on the tail end of a B2B after playing the Wizards on Sunday.
I mentioned this on Friday with the Suns, but this is a team playing at a top 10 pace since the re-start and on top of that, they are running a tight rotation that is condensed around their starting unit – all that, and the need to win – makes them an appealing core for NBA DFS purposes.
The rub is that OKC happens to be one of the best defensive teams since re-entering the bubble, ranking 2nd in Def-Rtg behind only the Toronto Raptors. At this point however, I think finding teams with a reason to play is going to outweigh DvP and that leads me to start my builds today with Devin Booker ($8.7K) and DeAndre Ayton ($8K).
Booker has now put up 20 ore more FGA in every game but one since his return to the bubble and that volume plus his 33.5% usage rate, which ranks behind only Giannis and Zion since the re-start, puts him at the top of my player pool today.
Ayton is an interesting case today as the DvP would say this is a poor match-up but with the Thunder playing without Steven Adams AND Nerlens Noel yesterday, this could end up becoming a wildly different match-up. The fact that Adams was in, then out, leaves me to think hes likely to play here today but we will have to watch for news leading up to lock.
For all the reasons you are playing Booker, you can argue for Ayton as he has played 35+ minutes in every single game except the one where he had foul trouble against Dallas, so we know the minutes security will be there and with 49 DK points in 2 of his last 5 games, he has already shown us his 6x upside at this price point.
On the other side of this game, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander ($7K) could be a fascinating GPP pivot after burning the DFS community time and time again. SGA has not eclipsed 40 DK points in any game but yet his price has risen from $6K to $6.7K to $6.8K on Friday and now he is at $7K. I do wonder if the price increase and the game log watchers who have been burned will stay away here.
What I love about guys like SGA for DFS purposes is that he has the ability to rack up peripherals even when his shot is not falling. We saw it against the Lakers where he shot just 3 for 11, but still managed 37 DK points as a result of 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals. The ceiling for SGA can be massive when he puts together a total game and with my core being around Booker/Ayton – I love the idea of having some run back with OKC, especially if SGA is under-owned.
One guy we were on in Discord on Friday against Memphis was Darius Bazley ($3.3K) as a pivot off chalky Nerlens Noel and he delivered with 23 DK points at $3K. Yesterday he played 26 minutes and racked up 37 DK points with both Adams and Noel out – and if we get similar circumstances today, we need to have some of the athletic big man in our pool.
There is an argument today to front-load your builds, as we have the “better” actual basketball games later in the slate but the better DFS environments could be the two early games as we get a short-handed Dallas team against a potentially short-handed Jazz squad at 3PM EST.
For the Win Daily family that may be new to me and Picks and Pivots, I have a problem – and the only solution is more THJ. That is Tim Hardaway Jr.
I have not played THJ yet this re-start, but today with BOTH Luka and KP out, now is the time to fire up some THJ at just $5.6K.
The last time both these stars for Dallas sat out was February 22nd against the Hawks and THJ did what he does in those scenarios – shot the ball 22 times, led the team with 33% usage and dropped 48 DK points.
For those of you new to THJ Day – you lock him in when he is going to be the #1 scoring option and can drive all the usage – which is key for him as a volume scorer. There are crazy highs/lows anytime you roster a scoring dependent player so understand the variance that can exist, but at this price point – I am more than willing to lock in my favorite player in the NBA.
The rest of Dallas could end up being a value bonanza and while we do not have a ton of spend ups, the sheer minutes that we could get for punts like Trey Burke and Maxi Kleber make them appealing PP/$ plays that could easily 10x their price today.
Utah will be interesting as they are coming off a double-OT thriller which now has Donovan Mitchell with a Q tag heading into today. If Mitchell were to sit, I would have a lot of interest in Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley who are priced in the $6-$7K range on DK and get the benefit of a Dallas team with no interior defense to speak of. The only real “concern” here would be Utah blows the doors off Dallas and sits their veterans so using them within a game stack may be your best approach.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
Today is all about value – and yet, we have no real stars to pay up for.
One approach could be to go more balanced, ignoring the punt value that we have already in Dallas and could have in multiple other spots.
The other approach could be to overpay for players who may get over-looked – so someone like SGA or Chris Paul who is over $8K. Neither play has come close to paying off their price tags but if these kind of guys are under-owned, do we play the game theory and take shots on them in our roster construction since it is so easy to fit them?
This will be my last NBA DFS column for the regular season but don’t worry – my dud Adam Strangis will be rocking Picks and Pivots for me the rest of the year. Let’s go out with a THJ day my friends!
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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