Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We continue to see on these two game NBA playoff DFS slates how small the margin of error is and how game by game it becomes a coin flip of key players.
Take yesterday as an example with the Celtics – Jason Tatum underwhelmed at just 37 DK points while Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown were the Celtics to own with 44 DK points each at near $2K price discounts.
Pascal Siakam put up a 31 DK point dud and instead it was Kyle Lowry who put up the 54 DK point ceiling game and was a key piece of optimal rosters.
The margin of error at this point in determining your cash position in DFS is razor thin and the 1v1 type decisions within the same rosters are what we are going to live and die by each and every slate for the remainder of the playoffs.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Stars
The biggest difference between yesterday’s slate and today’s is that we are JAMMED with superstars on this slate and DraftKings is not messing around, with four stars priced above $10K including Giannis, LeBron, AD and James Harden.
The issue we have is that on a two game slate we are going to be challenged for value and the search for value on these slates has become a wild guessing game on a seemingly nightly basis.
Let’s start with the stars though and how we intend to approach them.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.5K) has underhwhelmed through the first two games of this series as the Bucks find themselves down 0-2, and his fantasy performances of 47 and 53 DK points have not even reached 4.5x return on his price tag. The kicker? DK actually INCREASED his price $100 from where it was in Game 1 and Game 2!
Giannis saw his ownership drop from 50% plus in Game 1 to 35% in Game 2 and remember – those slates only had one other “pay up stud” in James Harden. So now after two subpar games, and the addition of LeBron/AD to the player pool – how far does the ownership drop?
The Heat have defended Giannis incredibly well, limiting his points and ability to get to the paint and there is no reason to think that strategy will change. However, this is still Giannis – in a must win game – and so if he is going to be the star everyone writes off in DFS – how can you not have tournament interest?
LeBron James ($11K) and Anthony Davis ($10.6K) get their first crack at the Rockets and in the only meeting they had pre-bubble with both stars playing, LeBron went for 56 DK points while AD dropped 66.
That game is a good data point because it was when the Rockets had committed to small ball and not surprisingly, AD tore them up – with a line of 32/13 with 6 combined blocks/steals.
I lean AD if being forced to choose – one because we not only get the price discount (which is key on a slate with little value) and the fact we can use him at Center on DraftKings.
Lastly we have James Harden ($11.2K) who well, as much as I like him – how can I make the argument to pay nearly $3K more when I can get Russell Westbrook ($8.4K) who is back to playing 30+ minutes for Houston?
In the two games that Harden and Westbrook played together against LA this year – Westbrook went for 57 and 60 DK points while Harden managed just 36 and 52. The price for Westbrook is simply too low and when I plant my flag on a Houston star – I am going to take the price savings on Westy who has shown every bit the ceiling we want from a $10K player (who is just $8K tonight).
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Balance or Punt City?
My initial reaction today is to lock in AD and Westbrook and I think that pairing will likely be popular up top.
From there, will folks opt to go more balanced with over $5K per player to spend OR can they jam in another star like LeBron or Giannis and build an extreme Stars and Scrubs build with the rest of the roster coming under $4K?
If recent slates have shown us anything – it is that the scrub approach has seemingly failed more than it has succeeded with the balanced builds providing more consistent cash positions.
The value is very tough to come by on this slate, especially when you consider how top heavy teams like LA and Houston really are but I do think we have paths here today to some “safe” value (which I cringe as I write that).
Danny Green ($4.1K) and Kentavious Caldwell Pope ($3.8K) give you two punts with starting roles and path to 30+ minutes and to be honest – that is basically the route we are looking at today as we search for guys who can get us 20-25 DK points to pair around the studs. You can take both players as they have a neutral correlation to each other and allow you to fill SG/SF with ease – or you can plant your flag with one versus the other and hope you chose wisely.
The Milwaukee/Miami game last game saw both teams extend to ten man rotations and that alone is going to make picking and choosing value from this game VERY dicey.
The Bucks are the team I have more immediate interest in – and my focus is going to be on the cheap starters. Eric Bledsoe ($5.7K) played 31 minutes in Game 2 after missing Game 1 with an injury and Wes Matthews ($3.5K) logged 30 minutes.
Much like the argument for KCP/Green – you are finding value in minutes – and targeting guys that have 30+ minute paths. One bench piece from Milwaukee that I also think is viable is Marvin Williams ($3.3K) who has clearly carved out a 20-25 minute role on the second unit. It is worth noting that all 3 of these Bucks have positive fantasy correlation on this season alongside Giannis – so there is a path to success even if Giannis is the one dominating the touches and fantasy production.
Miami – honestly – may just be a stay away for me if they are all healthy. If Kelly Olynyk and Andre Igoudala end up sitting, then I think you can feel far better about using the secondary pieces on Miami but if they are all fully healthy – Miami may be a case where you limit your pool to the 4 starters in Bam, Butler, Dragic and Crowder and avoid the dartboard that is the rest of their roster.
If you do want to punt – keep an eye on Derrick Jones Jr. ($3K) who would get a massive bump if Kelly O and Iggy were out. Jones got into the rotation in the second half of Game 2 and ending up playing 7 of the final 13 minutes and was an impact player in that time – getting 3 blocked shots and if you watched that game, he was all over the court. That effort could lead to more minutes and if Iggy is out as an example, I would lock him in at min priced.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap Up
I will continue to say this on every two-game slate we have – TAKE YOUR STAND and then, let the chips fall where they may. If you take your stand with Anthony Davis tonight and it ends up being LeBron who has the ceiling game – so be it.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
