Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a solid 7 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel. After a huge start to the second half of the NBA season on Wednesday’s two gamer – we set our sights on tonight and building our bankroll!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Tonight’s seven game NBA DFS slate is the sweet spot in my opinion as a single entry player – we have enough games to make it interesting but not so many where it becomes overwhelming.
We also have a ton of injury news that sets this slate up for some serious value (shocker I know). As of this morning, we have a handful of players already ruled OUT – PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon, Christian Wood, Bam Adebayo, Marc Gasol, Ben Simmons, and DeMar DeRozan. Now add to that list the Questionable tags and your pool expands with Bradley Beal, Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, Darius Garland, John Wall, and Victor Oladipo.
With the absolute mess in Houston and the big names that are potentially out – this can only mean one path tonight – STARS & SCRUBS.
Which Stars to Build Around
With the first look of this slate screaming value, I want to start my builds around 3-4 top tier players that can set the cash line for me.
The first player that I set my eyes on today is Russell Westbrook ($10.2K) as he will be facing a short-handed Sixers team potentially without his backcourt mate in Bradley Beal. The metrics are incredibly simple in this scenario – if Beal is out, Westbrook sees a near 10% usage boost and is sporting a 40% usage rate and 1.5 FP/M. Now, add in the fact that the Sixers will be without Ben Simmons and this is a spot where Westbrook’s path to finishing at the rim becomes even easier.
The other high dollar spot that catches my eye is in Memphis – as the short-handed Nuggets will visit the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis started the season slowly, but they are back to playing the style that made them a DFS darling last season – ranking as the third-fastest team in pace over the last 10 games.
Now you may not think “fast pace” and immediately think about playing a big man – but Nikola Jokic ($10.9K) is no ordinary big fella. Big Honey thrives in these fast-pace game scripts where he can run the floor and he has shown that 70+ DFS ceiling in similar spots this year – with 70+ DraftKings points against teams like Minnesota, Houston and Milwaukee – who all rank in the top 10 in pace.
One of my favorite mini stacks in all of NBA DFS is to pair Joker with Jamal Murray ($8.4K), the highest correlated pairing on this Denver squad. With the Nuggets without Gary Harris and with JaMychael Green & Paul Millsap questionable, this will put even more focus on Jamal Murray. With that trio out this season, Murray sees the biggest usage bump and FP/M increase – averaging 44 DK points per 36 which gives him an exceptional floor and the pace boost to hit his ceiling.
On the other side of this game – Ja Morant ($8.1K) has seen his DFS production spike as the Memphis attack has played faster, seeing 50+ DFS point ceiling now in the last 10 games that overlap with the Memphis pace increase.
Looking for a pivot play in this $8K range? Look no further than Collin Sexton ($8.1K). My man Adam wrote him up in his Cash Game Breakdown and he nailed it – another $8K guard with a 50-60 DK point ceiling.
I love the builds tonight where we can anchor to two $10K studs and then build off that with two $8K players with 50+ ceilings. Now, that is going to mean we need value but come on now – you know that path exists.
Finding the Value
The very first stop on the Win Daily Sports value train is going to be in Houston tonight where we already know the Rockets will be without Eric Gordon, Christian Wood, and PJ Tucker. Victor Oladipo is questionable on the B2B and John Wall is questionable after missing last night with an injury.
This could end up being one of those spots where the Rockets have 8 bodies to play and despite the match-up against Utah, it is a simple scenario of cheap players with all the minutes and usage.
If we take a look last night at the Rockets rotations via Popcorn Machine – you can see this was essentially an 8 man rotation after Eric Gordon left the game.
Kevin Porter Jr. ($3.2K) was the Ghost Model darling yesterday – dude popped off for 40+ DK points at around 15-20% ownership and his price is still $3.2K. He was a great play yesterday, he is a great play today. Difference is – the field will now have caught on and he will be 104% owned. Still – you play that chalk every time.
Where I think we could really get interesting is with the other Rockets – guys like Ben McLemore ($3.5K) and Kenyon Martin Jr. (3K). The run for Martin in the second half of that game is REALLY intriguing as he checked in with 8:40 left in the third quarter and NEVER came out of the game.
Assuming Wall and Oladipo sit, there is going to be similar to scenarios we have seen multiple times this NBA DFS season where COVID/injuries push team to minimum player rotations and more often then not – that chalk value has hit.
Playing chalk Kevin Porter Jr. or Ben McLemore is NOT about playing them but instead it is about what it allows you to pay up for. Eating that chalk duo – allows me to get a Westbrook/Jokic type pairing with ease – and that is what you want to anchor to on a slate like tonight.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Let’s call it what it is my friends – this NBA DFS slate is basically sizing up to be a carbon copy of the first half as we have injuries galore and short-handed squads that give us all the value and the path to all the stars.
Time and time again, this NBA DFS season has left us with multiple punt paths and tonight is no different. Take that “easy value” but do so with an eye on the stars like Jokic and Westbrook that can set the cash line on their own. Use the scrubs to get the stars. Rinse & repeat.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
