Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
Last night’s two-game slate appetizer saw ties atop the Milly Maker leaderboard on both FanDuel and DraftKings – with Win Daily Sports very own Draft Master Flex sitting atop the FanDuel leaderboard! Congrats my man – what a way to kick off the season – here was the winning line-up for those who may have missed it in Discord late last night!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown:
We have a six-game slate here today which starts at 2:30 PM EST with the Magic/Nets and will carry on until the late-night hammer in the Rockets/Mavericks at 9 PM EST. DraftKings has another $1M to first place GPP today with the buy-in elevated to $25 and as I write this Friday morning, only 40,000 of the 142,000 spots are spoken for – hello overlay!
So where do we start?
We already have some new injury news as players like Eric Bledsoe, Bryn Forbes and Eric Gordon will miss tonight’s first game and they get added to the list of players we already knew were out the rest of the year – including LaMarcus Aldridge, Kelly Oubre, Davis Bertans, Trevor Ariza, Willie Cauley-Stein, DeAndre Jordan, Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince, Trey Lyles, Justise Winslow, Marvin Bagley and a partridge in a pear tree.
What it all means is that we have some serious value starting off this first slate and if last night was any indication – those $3-$4K plays on DraftKings like Jordan Clarkson or JJ Redick, can make a massive impact on your roster construction.
If you are going to pay up on this slate, the most obvious spot in my mind to do so is the Rockets-Mavericks, a game with a slate-high 228 total and just a -1.5 spread which means we get the old high & tight combo that is ideal for stacking!
If you are targeting this game it all starts with the studs – Luka Doncic with James Harden and Russell Westbrook on the other side of the game but locking in that trio on DraftKings will leave you with just $3.8K per player for the final 5 spots in your build.
This trio combined for 205 DraftKings points the last time they met in January and today at a combined salary of $30.9K – that would mean a similar output would give you 6.6X from your stars.
Now, past performance does not guarantee future success but good gravy, if these stars have ceiling games and you don’t have them – well, your currently winning number is going to drop off a cliff once the late-night hammer stars.
The Stars/Scrubs approach is 100% viable here today with all the injury news and value we have so I think stacking this game is a viable and preferred path in GPP’s as these two squads are separated by just 1.5 games in the 6th and 7th spots in the West.
Going Stars/Scrubs around the high ceiling stars here doesn’t take much – in fact, you can largely stay in this game and get a handful of starting players to utilize alongside them. PJ Tucker ($4.2K) and Daniel House ($3.8K) will start alongside Russ/Harden with Eric Gordon sidelined and the Mavericks will have Maxi Kleber ($4.7K) up front alongside KP with Dallas thinner in the frontcourt with WCS sidelined.
The Other game that really catches my eye here today is the Grizzlies/Blazers – a game with a similarly high and tight environment with a 224 total and 2.5 point spread. This game has massive playoff implications with Memphis clinging onto the 8 spot, just 3.5 games ahead of Portland so to say we have an immediate need for a win on both sides is an understatement.
With a pace-up spot and a mus win for Portland, Damian Lillard ($9.3K) becomes another top tier option and a potential pivot off Russ at a similar price point on DK. The Blazers are going to be a fascinating team to watch here as they welcome back both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins alongside Hassan Whiteside. Collins at $3K is the minimum price on DraftKings and is expected to draw the start here which could make him one of the top PP/$ on the slate!
Memphis is almost always about Ja Morant ($7K) and this price point on DK makes him a player that you can slide in with Dame and still allows you to get some serious star power in the late-night game but more on that in a moment. Morant went for 40+ DK points the first time these teams met and I think he has a serious path for 6x here tonight in a must win game for Memphis.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
One strategy I love at first glance tonight is a 2/2 star stack of this game and the Houston/Dallas game and really that boils down to two scenario’s:
- Build #1: Dame/Morant and Luka/Harden – $3-$3.1K remaining for last 4 spots
- Build #2: Dame/Morant and Luka/Westbrook – $3.4-$3.5K remaining for last 4 spots
In both instances, you are going super Stars and Scrubs but in this context of this slate, I think it becomes the preferred approach. We are going to have multiple plays in the $3K price point range in starting lineups today – we have brutally depleted lineups in Brooklyn and Washington and while the idea of going all-in on any of those fringe pieces is scary, we all know that minutes and opportunity are key in NBA DFS and if these punt options have paths – well, it allows us to stack up 4 of the best plays on the slate.
Stay tuned to Win Daily today as our custom projections will be uploaded and updated every 10 minutes during the day as news breaks as my dud Ghost has worked tirelessly to perfect the model that had us all over Clarkson/Reddick last night. Let’s do it again!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
