Gary Gustafson 
Happy Friday my NBA DFS family and friends! After a small four game slate on Thursday we return with a monster 10 gamer on Friday Night with a ton of big prize pools, superstars, injury news and the typical chaos that follows an NBA slate of this size.
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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this ten-game slate, we have some really obvious star power and with so many big injury tags (Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Kawhi, PG13, etc) – what we likely know going into this slate is that we will have multiple paths to the value that makes getting that star power, an easy roster decision.
What we also have is multiple high total games with projected fast pace spots including the Hawks/Wizards, Kings/Raptors, 76ers/TWolves and Nets/Thunder.
When we are looking at a slate that is this large – the best thing you can do is minimize your player pool and focus on the best game environments and the best value. With so many good spots to attack – it may be easy to just cross off slow pace and low total games like the Knicks/Cavs, Magic/Clippers, and Pacers/Hornets.
One other interesting note when you step back and look at the slate from a macro perspective – 9 of the 10 games start at 8:30 PM EST or earlier with the Utah/Dallas game being the lone 10 PM EST start. I bring that up because if you are back-loading your builds, just understand you have a far smaller “late-night” pool to pull options from if you intend to late swap.
Build My Core:
The one game that really stands out to me at first glance tonight is the Bucks/Pelicans – a game that I think can be a core building block for tournaments with some serious game stack upside.
The Bucks do not need much in the way of explanation – they are a top 7 pace team in the NBA and the #1 rated offense in the league. They have concentrated usage and very clear star power – so landing on them as a core is pretty simple.
It all starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10.8K) here tonight in a national TV game against the Pelicans. This is a match-up he lit up for 68 DK points last year and I think with the value we have/will have – I want to make sure I have one ceiling star at the core of my builds here tonight. The Pelicans rank in the bottom 6 in Def-Rtg this season and we just saw a similar star in Bradley Beal light up this Pelicans defense for 70+ DK points.
The secondary play for the Bucks comes down to Khris Middleton ($8.4K) or Jrue Holiday ($7K). If you didn’t think I was going to talk about Jrue REVENGE in his first game back in New Orleans – well, my friends, you were dead wrong.
I mentioned what Beal did last game against Bledsoe and company, so it is tough not to have interesting in the primary guard option for the Bucks here at just $7K. In both cases, Middleton and Jrue are the type of multi-category contributors that can easily reach a 6x ceiling alongside Giannis in the right game enviornment.
I lean towards Jrue at first glance for two reasons – if the Pelicans are without Lonzo Ball you put a worse on-ball defender in Eric Bledsoe on Jrue – with Bledsoe having the worst defensive rating of any Pelicans starter this season. Secondly, I think position needs will drive my roster decisions and with strong forwards on the other side of this game – I may opt to bypass Middleton and use Jrue to fill my PG/G slot.
The Pelicans side of this game is really intriguing to me – with or without Lonzo Ball. I mentioned this last time New Orleans played, but this slow-paced Pelicans attack has really changed with its opponents the last week – playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the NBA the last two games against fast-paced opposition like Washington and Minnesota.
This is a massive tick up for New Orleans who has ranked in the mid 20’s all season and are seeing roughly 5 more possessions per game these last two outings versus their season average.
More possessions = more DFS potential.
If Lonzo Ball is out, this obviously gives a solid uptick to the remainder of the Pelicans and I think DraftKings has set the pricing far too low for a starting unit that drives all the usage and production.
Eric Bledsoe ($5.7K) has a 24% usage rate this season with Lonzo off the court versus a 17% rate with him on – a massive swing in his role that would allow him to reach a similar 6x ceiling as he has on average the last two fast-paced games. Oh yeah – REVENGE! DOUBLE REVENGE!
If Lonzo were to miss – it gives added boost to both Brandon Ingram ($8K) and Zion Williamson ($7.6K) as well. Ingram dropped 49 DK points on the Bucks in their last meeting a season ago and he is coming off a 53 DK point outing against Washington last game where his production spiked once Lonzo went out.
We could see Nickeil Alexander Walker ($4.2K) carve out a bigger role as well as the last stretch that Lonzo sat (1/13-1/17) – NAW played 30+ minutes in two of those games and dropped 52 and 27 DK points!
What I really love about this game is how it gives you multiple paths to build game stacks – 4v2, 3v3 and any sort of combination you can think of.
Outside of Giannis, the rest of this game is incredibly fairly priced for two teams that will play at a fast pace with condensed starting rotations that play 30-35 minutes a night. If this game stays close, you could have a GPP takedown here with the PP/$ potential on both sides.
There is also some massive position flexibility in this game and one of the things I LOVE – is how you can use Giannis OR Zion at Center on DK. I do not love Center tonight on DraftKings so being able to slide Giannis OR Zion there and fill in a weak spot with a premium play from this game is a strategy I plan to utilize heavily tonight.
Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Starting out today we have to keep in mind that value will be coming – its too big of a slate with too many early question marks to not see multiple paths to value. All that means getting in stars and building backwards – for me I think it starts with Giannis and building out in a Pelicans/Bucks core game stack.
Make sure you check out our FREE Cash Game Breakdown today and our custom projections!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
