Gary Gustafson 
Well welcome to 2021 my NBA DFS friends, we have made it to the other side of a wild 2020 and it is time to start fresh and look forward! We get to cook off the new year with a 10 game NBA slate here on Friday so while you are nursing your hangover, fire up for DraftKings and FanDuel apps and let’s dive into our top NBA DFS Picks for tonight!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Deja Vu All Over Again!
Tonight’s 10 game slate is a monster and as we have said time and time again on these double-digit sized slates, the range of outcomes is so wide and the player pool becomes a real challenge for people to narrow down. The key is trying to find the spots you “have to have” and let everyone else run ragged trying to look at every possible play across 20 NBA teams.
We talk about this all the time on these larger slates, but I am far more inclined to anchor to 2-3 games and try to nail those game environments than try and chase “one-offs” from every other game, and once again the best spot is the same one we attacked 48 hours ago – Atlanta/Brooklyn.
We just saw this game play and it was everything we wanted it to be – as the two teams combined for 286 points (yes you read that right) and for two teams playing at top five pace levels this season, there is a reason Vegas has this game as a 245 total and the fastest projected pace.
What fascinated me about this game on Wednesday Night and honestly, it has been the case for Brooklyn almost all season – the DFS community in general, has minimal interest.
Now, remember, Wednesday was only a 6 game slate, and here were the ownership levels for the stars in this game – Trae Young (10%), Kevin Durant (30%) and Kyrie Irving (15%). If you can guarantee me I am getting guys like Trae and Kyrie for 10-15% again – I am going to LOCK button those bad boys in.
Everything we expected in that game happened – as Kevin Durant ($9.1K) and Kyrie Irving ($9.3K) sported matching 35% usage rates in the first game with Spencer Dinwiddie sidelined and they combined for a whopping 49 FGA which were half of the Nets total offensive output. I am not going to over complicate it – I was all over them on Wednesday in this spot and nothing has changed – go right back to it.
Trae Young ($10.1K) quietly had just 53 DK points in that game, only shooting the ball 18 times and failing to hit a single 3 pointer. So he had a quiet game and still dropped 50 DK points – imagine what happens when the 3’s fall and the volume goes back to his normal high usage levels?
The Kyrie-Durant-Trae trio leaves you with still $4.3K per player to fill out the rest of your builds – almost an identical spot to Wednesday and I think with the amount of value we will have (more on that in a minute) – it becomes an incredibly easy path to explore as the core of our builds.
Stars sit and Scrubs take over!
The key with these large slates is following the news as we get big-time stars sitting and it opens up all the value. Today’s big news is that Russell Westbrook looks likely to sit on the B2B and as Adam Strangis covered in our cash game core – it pushes the back-court duo of Bradley Beal and Raul Neto into being top plays.
We just say this play out against Orlando a few days ago – Beal ($9.4K) shot the ball 29 times on his way to roughly 50 DK points and Neto ($3.4K) dropped 40 DK points and looks primed to be the #FreeSquare of the day on DK.
I mentioned this on our free live show on Wednesday – the “new news” tends to dominate DFS thinking where we chase after the day’s breaking news – we saw it happen that day with LMA and Tatum and all of a sudden people were jumping all over Celtics and Spurs plays and as mentioned above, ignoring the Nets and Hawks.
While Neto is just an easy plug and play, I do think the decision to play Beal is one you have to think about a bit more. You could argue that he is not priced high enough for someone with 30 shot attempts on lay away tonight but in this same spot a few days ago he did not even crack 50 DK points. Conversely, he also failed to hit a single one of his seven three-point attempts and he shot only 34% so any uptick in efficiency and the path to crush town is real!
Finding the value to make Stars and Scrubs work
While the Raul Neto value is going to be popular, let’s not pretend like it’s the only path to value here tonight – in fact, we have multiple other sub $4K plays expected to be in the starting lineup!
The Pistons will be without Blake Griffin again tonight and we have already seen what this means for Saddiq Bey ($3.1K). Bey started two games ago against Atlanta, playing 30 minutes and dropping 21 DK points (7x value) and he got the start for Griffin in the second half against Golden State where he put up 16 DK points in just 15 minutes.
We already knew Memphis was without Ja Morant but now they look to be without Grayson Allen as well which brings up a ton of potential value in the Grizzlies backcourt. Desmond Bane ($3.7K) drew the second-half start once Allen went down and played 32 totals minutes on his way to 25 DK points.
The Bulls will be without Lauri Markkanen, Tomas Satoranksy and Chandler Hutchinson again on a B2B tonight and that means the Bulls will be super thin once again as Chicago gave all of Garrett Temple, Daniel Gafford and Thaddeus Young meaningful run. The one play here that is interesting for GPP’s is Daniel Gafford ($3K) who dropped 30 DK points in 22 minutes off the bench and give you a true punt Center option!
This is all at first look and with the NBA giving us 10 games tonight, we all know there is more value to come!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Starting today – my “CORE” is easy – Trae/Durant/Kyrie and Neto – and I have $4.5K per player for the rest of my build on DK. It is just that simple and I am not looking to over complicate it.
The next step is really about what other value opens up – do you add 1-2 more punts alongside Neto to get a “fourth star” in your build or do you go more balanced? Make sure you check out our projections today to see what value plays are popping!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
