Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back NBA DFS fans! After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Last night’s NBA DFS slate was the quintessential late-season NBA slate – we had stars sitting out, all the punt value we could possibly want and we saw Stars and Scrubs builds pushing near 400 DK points at the top of GPP’s as Harden/Lillard builds were easily attainable with the plethora of value the slate offered us.
The one big difference in this slate tonight is we lack the superstar power at the top end, as the only high-dollar investment is Joel Embiid ($10.5K). As a result, starting builds with Embiid makes a ton of sense on this slate especially with Philly being without Ben Simmons for the forseeable future.
On the season, Embiid has put up 1.7 FP/M with Simmons off the floor and in five games that Simmons missed in the regular season, Embiid put up 70+ in two of those games – and that is the exact ceiling type performance you are looking for today against the Magic.
Where we are now seeing teams resting players, we also have to keep an eye on the standings as we are getting very close to teams being mathematically eliminated – especially out West where the Kings/Pelicans are hanging on by a thread at this point, 3 games out of the #8 seed.
This could be the last gasp effort for both teams today and the match-ups with the Nets and Wizards respectively could not be better.
On the Kings side, De’Aaron Fox ($7.6K) stands out as a player with a massive ceiling in an elite match-up that could have 7x upside at this price point on DK. Since the re-start, Fox has been a usage beast, sporting a 34% usage rate for the Kings and has put up 49, 55 and 57 DK points in 3 of his 4 games which would return 6.4x value and more with his price tonight.The usage and the shot volume have been through the roof, with 21, 27 and 33 FGA in those 3 games and with the Kings looking to stay in the playoff picture – this could be another ceiling game for the Kings star.
On the other side of this game, Caris LeVert ($7.1K) is sitting at his lowest price since the re-start and his 33% usage rate, not surprisingly leads the team in Brooklyn. With Jarrett Allen and Joe Harris questionable, this could become even more of the LeVert show and a 1v1 pairing of LeVert/Fox in this game could pay big dividends.
The other early game that stands out to me is Memphis/OKC as the Grizzlies find themselves just a 1/2 game up on Portland for the final spot in the West after the Blazers win on Thursday.
Ja Morant ($8.5K) has basically been a 45-48 FP/G game player since the re-start so there is a solid floor here and that lack of ceiling has kept his ownership suppressed nearly every slate. This is more a gut call, but I think with Memphis reeling, having lost every game since the re-start, this is a spot that Morant takes over the game and is uber-aggressive in getting Memphis a win.
On the other side of this game, I love the run back with Shai-Gilgeous Alexander ($6.8K) who will continue to be a focal point for OKC’s offense and his well-rounded game is ideal for DFS. Look back at last game, even though he shot just 3-11, he put up 37 DK points as a result of his 15 combined steals, rebounds and assists. In this pace up spot for OKC, the peripherals should shoot up and if SGA’s shot is falling it could be a big night.
NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap-Up
The five-man core I outlined above leaves you with just $3.1K for the last 3 spots on DK but once again, I think we will find value easy to come by as news breaks.
We already know Ben Simmons is out, we have Aaron Gordon questionable and with the Nets potentially without Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen – my guess is we have a handful of true punts at our disposal again.
Don’t be afraid to use these guys – jam in the value when we have it – this is the method we have to employ in late-season NBA DFS and staying flexible and inserting value as we find it is a key with the lat swap functionality we have!
Let’s jump into Discord and talk some hoops my friends. Time to make money!
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