Christopher Day 
We’re back for another edition of the Gems to break down today’s 6-game NBA slate. Despite there being a limited number of players to choose from compared to prior slates that were much larger, we still need to plant our flag somewhere and make the tough decision on which games matter most in order for us to be successful. The majority of yesterday’s news came after lock, but that’s what NBA DFS is: uncertainty, late scratches affecting our lineups, and the ability to swap players makes all the difference in the world.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Trae Young ($9,800 FD / $9,600 DK)
Sure, he didn’t smash in the spot he was in just a few days ago against the Pistons, but if the Hawks want to stay in this game, let alone potentially win it, Trae Young will have to go nuclear. Sporting a 34.3% usage rate, Trae is averaging 34 PPG to go along with 4 rebounds and 7.3 assists, all while shooting 53.1% from the field and 42.1% from deep. He will be a core piece of my main NBA DFS lineup tonight.
Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $8,900 DK)
Despite having to share the ball with Kevin Durant throughout a game’s entirety, nothing has stopped Kyrie to already posting 29.3 PPG to go with 4.3 rebounds and 6 assists. A lethal scorer from behind the arc, in the post, and slashing to the basket, Kyrie faces Trae Young, who ranks as one of the worst defenders DVP at the position in a game with the highest over/under on the NBA slate.
Damian Lillard ($9,200 FD / $10,000 DK)
Although his usage has taken a hit with CJ McCollum rolling on offense in the past few games, Lillard is the guy that can walk onto any court, in any matchup, and drop 50 on us without anyone realizing just how good of an NBA DFS play he is from night to night because of these stacked slates. While the efficiency can certainly improve, the volume for Dame remains despite a slight drop in usage to 28.5%; he is still averaging 18.5 field goal attempts per game and 24 PPG and is in a marquee matchup versus the Clippers.
Jrue Holiday ($6,400 FD / $6,400 DK)
We finally saw what the Bucks thought they had acquired in Jrue Holiday yesterday, where he took advantage of a gamescript where Milwaukee did not need Giannis on offense; Holiday dropped a cool 24/3/7 with 3 steals and a block, including going 6/10 from behind the arc. They are finally giving him more touches than DiVincenzo and he’ll be a core piece again tonight on FD, especially if Butler plays, which will make this one more competitive. *Edit* Still a fine play even with Butler ruled out, but tread carefully.
Shooting Guards
CJ McCollum ($8,400 FD / $7,900 DK)
You need to consider him if you are not playing Dame. If you have not noticed, the two games I am targeting most on this NBA slate is ATL/BKN and POR/LAC with some MIA/MIL – I do not enjoy rostering McCollum because he has a tendency to go invisible on us at times, but with how well he has played out of the gate, you need to consider him while he remains affordable. Currently averaging a higher usage rate than Lillard at 29.7%, McCollum has dropped a whooping 29 PPG while shooting 43.7% from the field and 42.9% from 3.
Jimmy Butler ($8,000 FD / $7,500 DK)
Way too cheap for the engine of the Miami Heat. Whether it be a defensive assignment, carrying the offense, or like most nights, a hybrid of both, Butler is simply too cheap for his ceiling in this marquee matchup versus Milwaukee. The injury concern does not worry me one bit – he sat out yesterday for a reason. Butler has been slow out of the gate riddled with injuries, but if he’s a go, I’ll have a ton, especially on DK. OUT
Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
I mentioned him yesterday as a pivot to a chalky Giannis and we had the right concept – it just happened to be more Holiday over Middleton. If Butler plays, I’ll be all over Middleton yet again who has been having quite the season thus far, averaging 26.3/6.5/5.8 across 4 games and is the secondary option for this Bucks team that will need contributions from both he and Jrue Holiday to take back-to-back games in Miami. *Edit* Less Middleton for me now that Butler is out.
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($9,500 FD / $8,400 DK)
A core piece for me on DK for tonight’s NBA slate, KD is fresh having rested the other night versus Memphis. The SF position is bare with talent, but deep enough to consider fading him on FD, but I won’t be. The upside is massive in a spot versus the Hawks that play at one of the fastest paces in the league and having John Collins on KD, someone who fouls anybody that moves, is no bueno for the Hawks tonight. Because of his foul trouble, where he is averaging 4.3 per game, Collins has only played 24 minutes per game – 24. Now, give me De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan/Gallinari/Reddish on KD? Please lock in the man who is shooting 53.2% from the field, 69.2% from 3, has a true shooting percentage of 56.5% and is averaging over 8 free throws per game.
After Kevin Durant, the selection for the second SF on FD becomes quite interesting. The pool of usable players is quite large compared to other positions, not because there are a ton of great options, but because they are equally mediocre. For now, considering the time of writing is quite early in the day, my player pool will be as followed, but keep up in Discord for updates, as well as updates to the article throughout the day as news rolls in:
- Keldon Johnson ($5,800 FD / $5,700 DK)
- Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400 FD / $4,800 DK)
- Tyler Herro ($4,500 FD / $5,400 DK) *Edit* HUGE BUMP
- Cam Reddish ($4,400 FD / $4,400 DK)
- Donte DiVincenzo ($4,400 FD / $4,900 DK)
- De’Andre Hunter ($4,300 FD)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
Nobody’s playing him after yesterday’s dud, but if Butler is in, Giannis skyrockets up my rankings tonight. Having only played his starters 20-25 minutes yesterday, Coach Budenholzer will go right back to well and run them for 35+ minutes should Butler play in this one. Yes, Giannis is only averaging 1.48 FPPM this season, but yesterday’s game has a lot to do with that – he’s a career 1.8 FPPM player and is an elite target on any NBA slate, especially in a matchup that requires him to play 36 for them to win given how shallow their bench is now after acquiring Jrue Holiday.
Jayson Tatum ($9,200 FD / $8,600 DK)
Way too cheap on both sites for someone that is the Boston offense now. Having taken off in the NBA bubble last season, Tatum is right back averaging 25.5/9.3/3.3 and 1.5 steals per game for the Celtics while shooting 44.3% from the field on a whopping 22 FG attempts per game. I much prefer Kyrie/KD/Trae on this slate, but if you’re looking to get different with a pay up spot, Tatum is my guy.
Honorable Mentions:
- Robert Covington ($5,200 FD / $4,700 DK)
- Brandon Clarke ($4,600 FD / $5,100 DK)
Centers
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
Let everyone else play the Kyle Anderson’s, the Dillon Brooks’ etc. I’ll gladly take the Memphis player I want at surprisingly low ownership at the time of writing. With Ja Morant ruled out for multiple weeks with an ankle injury, look for JoVal to see a notable uptick in usage tonight. I wrote up Myles Turner yesterday and got him at 0.6% ownership versus this very same Celtics frontcourt of Theis/Thompson – and he went on for 16/6 with 2 steals and 3 blocks, good for nearly 40 fantasy points – and he has half of the offensive upside that Valanciunas has. Give me the big man as my main center on FD.
- FD Bonus Play: Serge Ibaka ($5,400)
- DK Bonus Play: Deandre Jordan ($4,600)
- Punt: Enes Kanter ($4,800 FD / $4,400 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
