Christopher Day 
We are on a roll six slates into the NBA season and we will continue to do so tonight with another heavy schedule on tap. With the key news of yesterday coming as a shock to some, let me take the time to remind you that what happened yesterday is NBA DFS in a nutshell: make a lineup before lock approaches, and you fail to adjust accordingly. Make sure to stay on top of the news and be on your laptop/phone at least one hour prior to lock to maximize winnings.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Looking into today’s NBA slate, as stated above, it’s important to keep up with the news – Jimmy Butler is trending to being out for the Heat, while the Clippers may also be without Kawhi Leonard tonight after an accident with Serge Ibaka that saw Kawhi catch an inadvertent elbow to the face. Before the slate turns on its head, let’s have a look at an early player pool:
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($10,600 FD / $9,700 DK)
Coming off a game where he sat out for rest, Russell Westbrook is in a smash spot for today’s premium price range at the point guard position. The price on FD is a bit much for my taste, but I’ll have a ton of shares on DK; Westbrook is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles in his first two games for the Wizards and will be facing a Chicago Bulls team that cannot guard the backcourt after losing Kris Dunn in the offseason and Tomas Satoransky still recovering from injury. Although his efficiency has been as bad as it gets in the NBA, the volume is simply undeniable; Westbrook has taken a whopping 41 shots in two games, having a 31.8% usage rate on the offensive end of the ball.
Stephen Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)
All it took was a juicy matchup versus the very same Bulls team we just spoke about above for Curry and the Warriors to get the monkey off their backs. Coming off the crucial first win of the NBA season, Curry now sees a Detroit Pistons team that will be sending out a combination of rookie Killian Hayes and Derrick Rose to guard the 2-time MVP. His 3-point shooting efficiency hasn’t been as deadeye as prior years, but with a ridiculous 35 attempts in just three games, Steph has the potential to break the slate tonight.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)
Let the rest of the NBA community continue to sleep on these Indiana Pacers, and I will continue going right back to them at low ownership. Criminally underpriced in a playoff-type matchup, Malcolm Brogdon has been the cog of this Pacers offense since coming over from Milwaukee and forming quite with the duo with a certain PF you’ll read about shortly. Yes, the matchup is not ideal versus Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, but it’s more so the fact that Vegas has this game as the tightest on the NBA slate – and rightfully so. Averaging 21.3/4.7/6.3 and 1.7 steals per game in his first three, Brogdon will be relied upon heavily in this one.
Goran Dragic ($6,900 FD / $5,800 DK)
Assuming Jimmy Butler is ruled out for tonight’s contest versus the Bucks, look for the guard trio of Dragic, Robinson, and Herro to pick up the slack on offense while Bam Adebayo is tasked with guarding Giannis throughout the game. Coming off the bench in both appearances for the Heat this far, Dragic has been his old self, contributing 19/3/8 on 58.3% shooting and having a 27.1% usage rate.
Honorable Mention: Jrue Holiday ($6,400 FD / $6,700 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($9,600 FD / $9,300 DK)
The highest over/under on the NBA slate by 8 points and two teams that don’t play defense? Yeah, you need a piece of this game in some form. If you’re not playing Westbrook, I’d strongly consider Beal as an alternative if you are not comfortable with the value pieces in this one. Yes, Westbrook was assumed to have been stealing touches from Beal, but that is not the case whatsoever – Beal has a 35.9% usage rate this season and he has picked up right where he left off last season, already averaging 33/4.7/5, including games of 29, 31, and 39 points, respectively.
Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
A great tournament pivot to a chalky Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton is silencing doubters, myself included, with his early-season performance as the Robin to Giannis’ Batman. Grabbing at least 4 boards and 5 assists in every game thus far, Middleton is averaging a quiet 26.7/7.3/6 across three games thus far in 32 minutes per game. With the Heat being so concerned with Bam guarding Giannis, Middleton will have ample opportunity to switch onto whoever he likes on the offensive end with Butler presumed out.
Paul George ($7,600 FD / $8,500 DK)
Should Kawhi be ruled out as anticipated in this one, PG13 becomes a near-lock for me on this NBA slate. Already having a 30% usage rate, PG sees a notable uptick to 33.4% with Kawhi off the floor. Look for both he and Lou Williams to shoulder the load on offense tonight versus a Timberwolves team that will be without their sole defender in Karl-Anthony Towns.
Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $9,100 DK)
His price is steep enough on DK to warrant his low ownership, but Booker should not be this underowned on FD. Yes, he is surrounded by pieces listed both above and below him, but that’s exactly why I’ll have a ton of him. I love attacking Suns games because their defense is questionable at best, and they love to play an up-pace type of offense. A game versus the Pelicans who are even worse defensively and push the pace even more? Sign me up for a mini stack in this one in the form of Booker paired with Ingram or Zion.
Zach Lavine ($7,500 FD / $8,400 DK)
We said we wanted a piece of the Washington game, and there is no better Chicago Bull to play on any given night than their star shooting guard. A slasher that has the ability to knock down a jump shot, Lavine has really rounded his offensive game in the past few seasons and has become a legit offensive player in the NBA. You’ll need his scoring to get you there for NBA tournament play, but he has the ability to score in bunches given his 34.1% usage rate and Coby White’s struggles early on.
Honorable Mention: D’Angelo Russell ($7,300 FD / $7,600 DK)
Small Forwards
Brandon Ingram ($8,500 FD / $8,200 DK)
As mentioned in the Devin Booker blurb, this game is a big piece of my NBA lineups tonight: high total, fast pace, two teams that don’t play defense. Check, check, check. Ingram and Zion are on a mission this season to prove the league they have grown as players and Ingram’s Most Improved Player award was no fluke; the latter is underpriced on DK while being a premium option at the forever-thin SF position on FD, averaging a nice 26.7/7.3/6.7 in 36.7 minutes per game on 44.1% shooting and 30.2% usage.
Larry Nance Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,300 DK)
Filling in for the injured Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. will always be a target for our NBA DFS lineups in these exact situations. Rocking a mere 15.3% usage rate, Nance blows up on offense when the Cavs are this depleted in the frontcourt and on the wing, becoming a legitimate threat alongside Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, and Darius Garland. He’s a stone cold lock for your FD cash games, and at $5,500, his ceiling potential is there, but be careful on DK where a 30-point effort is simply not enough for his price tag.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Herro ($4,500 FD / $5,700 DK)
Others:
- Michael Porter Jr. ($5,900 FD / $6,400 DK)
- Jerami Grant ($5,700 FD / $6,500 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
Not much to say here about the NBA’s back-to-back MVP; he’s averaging over 1.9 FPPM, the Bucks bench is as depleted as it gets in the NBA, and Jimmy Butler is likely going to be out. With Bam Adebayo still drawing as a tough matchup for Giannis, Milwaukee has been crafty enough to open him up and offsetting some minutes between he and Middleton.
Domantas Sabonis ($8,900 FD / $8,600 DK)
Hopefully you’re noticing a pattern by now: Indiana is on the NBA slate? Sabonis will be in my article. This guy deserves the respect of not only the NBA, but the DFS community alike in what he does, day in, day out on the court for this Pacers team. He is a lesser version of Nikola Jokic in the sense that his court vision is elite for a big man, he’s able to pass the ball exceptionally well, and can scoring in multiple ways. Facing an offensive-minded Jayson Tatum now, Sabonis should be able to bully his way into the post and be a strong rebounder on both ends of the court tonight.
Zion Williamson ($8,600 FD / $8,100 DK)
Both he and Ingram are on an absolute tear to begin the NBA season, averaging 21.7 PPG. Despite the lower usage rate than his fellow teammate, Zion has been a force on the glass, averaging 11.7 rebounds per game and will see a Suns frontcourt that is constantly battling struggles on the defensive end and foul trouble.
Honorable Mention: Julius Randle ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)
Centers
Nikola Jokic ($10,300 FD / $10,200 DK)
The walking triple-double, it’s been every Nuggets game where I have written up The Joker, and it is not going to stop any time soon. I refer to him this way because, not only is he the best passing big man in the NBA, but he has been an absolute force on the glass, averaging 12 rebounds per game, and can score any way he wishes. Tread carefully on the second half of a back-to-back, but Jokic is in yet another smash spot versus a Sacramento frontcourt that features two of the worst defenders DVP at the position in Hassan Whiteside and Richaun Holmes.
Pool:
- Andre Drummond ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
- Myles Turner ($7,200 FD / $6,000 DK)
- Mason Plumlee ($6,000 FD / $5,700 DK)
FD Bonus Plays: Thomas Bryant ($5,200) and Wendall Carter Jr. ($5,100)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
