DFSGhost 
We’re a fourth into the NBA season and things are shaping up to be rather interesting heading into the holidays. Many teams are experiencing injuries, while others are picking up steam on both sides of the ball. Tonight, many elite game environments make this slate an intriguing one. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.
Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons (+4.5)
Sacramento Kings (-4.5)
This is a prime spot for the Kings’ duo of stars. Both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox find themselves in elite matchups at their respective positions. For one, the Pistons rank 29th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint and 25th in defensive rebounding. Over his last five games, Sabonis has scored 20 or more points in four appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 20.8/14.4/5.8 on 69.6% shooting and has racked up 4.2 offensive rebounds during the same span. De’Aaron Fox has been volatile as of late, only scoring 20 points once in his last seven appearances. However, his point/dollar upside in an elite game environment makes him an intriguing play for tournaments.
Detroit Pistons (+4.5)
The Pistons offense has many opportunities given the absence of Cade Cunningham. In 18 games since Cunningham last played, Bojan Bogdanovic has been carrying this offense. During that span, he leads the team with a 27.3% usage rate and has averaged 22.4/4.1/2.9 on 51.4% shooting, including 41.1% from deep. Sacramento ranks 23rd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed on over 11 makes per game. Moreover, there is value to be had with both Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, despite the tough matchup for the latter against Sabonis.
Golden State Warriors @ Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5)
Golden State Warriors (+7.5)
Welcome to the most popular rotation in NBA DFS over the next month. Unfortunately, Steph Curry will be sidelined for the next month or so after leaving last game with a shoulder injury. Thus, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will carry this offense. On the season, Poole and Thompson have usage rates of 28.2% and 25.6%, respectively, while posting 1.03 and 0.98 fantasy points per minute. However, with Curry off the floor, Poole takes a significant leap. In over 400 minutes played without Curry on the floor, Poole sees an increase to 1.14 fantasy points per minute through a 35.3% usage rate. However, Thompson sees dips in both. If you think Golden State keeps this one close, Poole is your guy, albeit being one of, if not the most popular player on the NBA slate.
Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5)
This is a tricky spot for the 76ers. On one hand, this game can get out of hand quickly. However, blowouts simply cannot be predicted. Thus, there is a strong chance that Joel Embiid or James Harden lead the NBA slate in scoring. Golden State currently leads the league in pace while ranking 19th in defensive rating. Moreover, they have struggled to guard primary ball handlers, ranking 24th in the NBA. Over his last three games, Harden has averaged a whopping 22.7/6.7/14.3 on 50% shooting, including 43.5% from behind the arc. This only thing stopping Harden from dominating tonight is Joel Embiid and his love for getting to the free throw line.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5)
This game is riddled with questionable tags for both injury reports. However, there is plenty of intrigue. Should he make his return after missing last game, D’Angelo Russell makes for an excellent tournament play. Over his last 10 games, Russell has averaged 21.4/2.8/6.6 on 52.3% shooting, including 40.5% from deep. Moreover, there could be value in the frontcourt, should Rudy Gobert be unavailable. Should this be the case, Naz Reid will instantly become one of the best values on the NBA slate and one of the most popular options in the field.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)
Similarly to above, should Rudy Gobert miss this game, value is here with Darius Bazley. With Jeremiah Robinson-Earl out for a few weeks, Bazley filled in at center, logging 31 minutes against Miami and posting a 12/5/2/1/1 scoring line in a tough matchup. Moreover, if Gobert plays, this game instantly becomes more competitive. Thus, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in a tremendous spot. With 23 or more points in 14 of his last 15 games, SGA has been on an absolute tear. During that span, he has averaged 31.4/4.8/6.1 on 48% shooting. Minnesota ranks 29th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, setting the stage for SGA to potentially lead the slate in scoring.
Honorable Mentions:
- Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (+1.5)
- Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)
You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord
