DFSGhost 
Back to a short NBA slate after plenty of teams were in action last night. Injury news awaits us, while a handful of players will be popular in the majority of lineups. Some situations are unavoidable given the injury news, while others may impact the slate closer to lock. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
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Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans
Dallas Mavericks (-5.5)
There is no debate about Luka Doncic being the player with the most upside on this NBA slate. Leading the league in usage rate, Doncic has gotten off to a terrific start this season. Through two games, Doncic has posted back-to-back 30-point efforts on a 33.5/8/8 scoring line. Not only is he taking 23 field goal attempts per contest, but he is also averaging nearly ten 3PA. Shooting a remarkable 47.8% from the field, the volume has not affected his efficiency whatsoever. If you were with us last season, you know how much I love to play primary ball handlers versus the Pelicans. In three games this season, New Orleans has allowed Terry Rozier to drop 23/8/11 only to allow Jordan Clarkson to score 18 points on an inefficient 7-for-19 shooting. With Doncic being much more gifted offensively, the Pelicans are in trouble on the perimeter.
New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5)
With Brandon Ingram (concussion) out for tonight’s game, the trio of McCollum, Williamson, and Valanciunas are firmly in play. However, key news awaits us as Zion (hip) is listed as questionable after leaving last game after a scary fall on a dunk attempt. Should the Pelicans proceed with caution and rest him, it will be all systems go on Valanciunas and McCollum, but should all three play, my favorite is in the backcourt. Leading the team in both minutes played and scoring, McCollum will see an increase in assist rate tonight in the absence of Ingram, and potentially Williamson. The offense will shift from less isolation and ball movement will be key, playing right into McCollum’s hands for a great NBA DFS output.
LA Clippers @ OKC Thunder (+10)
LA Clippers (-10)
With both Paul George (illness) and Marcus Morris Sr. (personal) ruled out for tonight’s game, plenty of touches are available on offense. Under normal circumstances, Kawhi Leonard would be a stone cold lock on an NBA slate like this with George out, but the former’s minutes are still being monitored. Thus, John Wall and Norman Powell share the spotlight in my Clippers writeup. The former has carried a 32.3% usage rate through two games this season, leading the team. Flashing scoring upside off the bench, Wall gets a cakewalk of a matchup with both Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey out tonight for the Thunder. On the other hand, Powell has struggled to find his shot thus far. Buying low on a high volume player is the goal here; his 25.9% from the field will turn the field away, but I Iove the spot for the Clippers wing.
OKC Thunder (+10)
Early in the NBA season, this rotation is as thin as it gets and we need to take advantage. The Thunder have already announced that both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (hip) and Josh Giddey (ankle) will be out tonight. While Lugentz Dort makes for a great play, the majority of the field will flock in his direction. However, my attention draws to a former Florida Gator. Tre Mann is now in his second season and will thrive in situations like this with the ball in his hands. He carries massive offensive upside and can create his own shot; a skill that is rare in young players. In a much larger sample size last season than the current one, with both SGA and Giddey off the floor, Mann saw a drastic increase in usage rate, from 22% to 28%, while also seeing his fantasy points per minute (FPPM) increase from 0.8 to 0.93.
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns (-2.5)
Golden State Warriors (+2.5)
This game will largely go overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate. Despite three straight 30-point games to open with season, I can’t imagine the field rostering Steph Curry over Luka Doncic. However, with a true shooting of 66.1%, good for sixth in the league and second amongst guards, you know Curry can lead any slate in scoring with his 3-point shot. If you’re not going with Curry and insist on getting exposure to this game, there are two routes you can take. Either ride a hot hand in Andrew Wiggins, who gets an awfully tough matchup versus Mikal Bridges, or pick on Deandre Ayton in the paint with Kevon Looney or James Wiseman. My level of exposure to this game remains to be seen with pending injury news leading up to lock.
Phoenix Suns (-2.5)
With the Pelicans offense being a priority for me, I’m likely to pass on Devin Booker. However, depending on how injury news breaks, Chris Paul may find himself in my NBA lineups if the value is there to support it. After a rough season debut, CP3 improved his play over the last two games. Sitting seventh in the league in assist rate is no surprise to one of the best point guards to ever do it, but his scoring this late in his career is a cause for concern. While Paul will control the offensive flow, should this game be tight do the stretch, it will certainly be Booker taking shots over CP3.
Honorable Mention:
- Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards (-5)
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